Metals News
SMM Evening Comments (Sep 16)
price review forecast
Sep 16,2019

SHANGHAI, Sep 16 (SMM) – Most SHFE nonferrous metals closed lower on Monday September 16 with nickel leading the losses and dipping 4.23%. Tin shed 2.94%, lead fell 0.2%, aluminium lost 1.04%, while copper grew 0.66%, and zinc climbed 0.13%. 

The ferrous complex ended higher as iron ore gained 0.45%, rebar advanced 1.77%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.19%, and coke went up 0.61%. 

Copper: The most-liquid SHFE November contract increased on Monday, standing above all moving averages, as oil prices jumped to a three-month high following the attacks on critical oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia over the weekend. The contract closed 0.66% higher on the day at 47,560 yuan/mt, with open interest down 1,378 lots as shorts exited. The SHFE September contract finished its last trading day with a settlement price of 47,730 yuan/mt and a delivery volume of 17,350 mt. The SHFE September and October contracts remained in a backwardation structure, with a price spread of 10 yuan/mt. Tonight, the most-traded November contract may track its LME counterpart and test resistance from 47,800 yuan/mt. 

Aluminium: As longs booked profits and left, the most-active SHFE November contract came off from highs, falling below support from the 20-day moving average and closing down 1.04% at 14,280 yuan/mt. Domestic social inventories of primary aluminium accumulated during the holiday. This, coupled with expectations of poor demand in the fourth quarter, dampened confidence in longs. Tonight, pressure from the 14,500 yuan/mt level should be monitored. 

Zinc: The most-liquid SHFE November contract consolidated around the Bollinger upper band with support from bullish macroeconomic sentiment, closing up 0.13% at 19,280 yuan/mt. However, fundamentals are expected to provide limited support to prices as downstream consumption barely improved after the holiday and greater supplies grew social inventories. The contract may test support from the five-day moving average tonight. The SHFE September contract settled at 19,255 yuan/mt, with a delivery volume of 13,325 mt. 

Nickel: The most-active SHFE November contract fell steeply below the 140,000 yuan/mt level after opened at 142,880 yuan/mt, as longs departed. A buildup of shorts continued to weigh the contract to an intraday low of 137,000 yuan/mt, before it ended down 4.23% at 137,500 yuan/mt. Some 939 million yuan of capital flew out of all SHFE nickel contracts, topping base metals. Support from 137,000 yuan/mt should be closely watched tonight. The settlement price of the SHFE 1909 contract was 139,450 yuan/mt, with a delivery volume of 4,008 mt. 

Lead: Concerns about the implementation of environmental cutbacks and bearish signals from technical indicators drove longs to exit, dragging the most-active SHFE October contract to an intraday low of 17,320 yuan/mt. It finished at 17,360 yuan/mt, down 0.2% on the day. A stronger LME lead may provide some support to Shanghai lead, but the upward room in the October contract could be limited tonight. The SHFE September contract ended its last trading day with a settlement price of 17,295 yuan/mt and a delivery volume of 8,650 mt. 

Tin: A lower LME tin prompted longs in the most-active SHFE 2001 contract to exit, sending down the contract by a sharp 2.94% to 137,210 yuan/mt. Open interest lost 3,036 lots to 36,994 lots. Support below is seen from the 60-day moving average, or 136,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

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