Platts Energy: storage at EIA crude Oil Depot fell by 4.7 million barrels this week

SMM News: after seven consecutive weeks of decline in US crude oil stocks, crude oil stocks began to recover in the first two weeks of August, but fell back again in the third week. In view of this, Platts energy analysts believe that given the simultaneous decline in US crude oil exports and imports, and the recent high operating rate of US refineries, the EIA crude oil inventory data is expected to continue to decline. Platts Energy expects crude oil stocks to fall by 4.7 million barrels, gasoline stocks to fall by 530000 barrels, and distillate stocks to increase by 700000 barrels.

Forecast that EIA crude oil stocks will be reduced by 4.7 million barrels

Platts energy information analysts predict that this week is expected to announce EIA crude oil stocks will be reduced by 4.7 million barrels, which will bring crude oil stocks in the United States to 433.08 million barrels.

Crude oil stocks in the United States typically fall back at this time of year until refinery maintenance begins in the autumn.

The start-up rate of US refineries fell slightly by 0.7 per cent last week to 95.2 per cent, close to a five-year high set this week, and refining margins have fallen since July, but overall prices are still relatively high. this keeps the operating rate of refineries at a high level.

Profits at coking refineries along the Gulf of Mexico averaged $7.65 a barrel in August, down from $9.37 a barrel in July, according to Platts Energy data.

On the supply side, US crude oil production is expected to remain at 12.3 million barrels a day, but crude oil imports are expected to fall, which will lead to a reduction in inventories.

Us crude oil exports and imports have declined at the same time, but the oil pipeline has been gradually improved or provided favorable conditions for exports.

Us customs data show that crude oil imports fell to 5.68 million barrels a day last week from 7.07 million barrels a day on August 16 last year.

U. S. crude oil exports are expected to fall, but have stabilized from the downward trend in early August. Platts cFlow ship tracking data show that the Gulf Coast of the United States exported 17.98 million barrels of crude oil last week, down from 19.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 16. But it is a marked improvement from just 12.9 million barrels in the week of Aug. 2.

The international trade situation has also caused US crude oil exports to shrink. But the Asian market, as a new major demand growth point, is one of the main destinations for U. S. crude oil exports. Us crude oil exports to Asia remained relatively high last week, at 8.45 million barrels, according to cFlow data.

According to separate Platts Energy data, although arbitrage for US Intermediate crude into the Asian market was not completed last week, arbitrage for light US crude oil is still under way, while arbitrage for US light crude oil into Europe opened last week.

This is mainly due to the expansion of pipeline capacity in the United States, resulting in more crude oil being shipped out of its country of origin for export. Data show that the Cactus II pipeline was officially put into operation last week, the first batch of U. S. crude oil has been transported to the port through the pipeline for export.

It is reported that the Cactus II pipeline, which is already in use, has increased the crude oil transport capacity of the United States by 670000 barrels per day. The project, which also includes 400000 barrels per day of EPIC crude oil pipeline and 900000 barrels per day of Gray Oak pipeline, is expected to start by the end of the year, which will further expand the overseas export capacity of US crude oil.

Huitong Finance and Economics APP believes that with the decline in US crude oil imports, the recent US crude oil export capacity has increased, and may also properly digest some of the crude oil stocks, which may support oil prices.

Strong output of refined oil

Platts energy analysts said U. S. gasoline stocks could fall by 530000 barrels last week, while distillate stocks could increase by 700000 barrels.

As refineries maintain high operation, the production of the two products should be maintained at a high level. Us distillate production for the week ended Aug. 16 was 5.34 million barrels a day, just 86000 barrels a day from this week's five-year high, according to EIA data.

But American distillates suggest a decline in demand. Platts energy data show that due to international trade tensions led to a significant decline in container imports in California ports, due to the decline in shipping volume, the demand for related oil products has also been affected. The decline in crude oil prices caused by weak demand has led to a reduction in the number of wells and a decline in diesel demand.

However, given that increased demand for trucking over the weekend ahead of Labor Day (September 2) may boost distillate consumption, some distillate stocks will also be digested.

Huitong Financial APP suggested that given the weak global demand for crude oil, EIA crude oil stocks will support oil prices for a short time if they fall as unexpectedly as Platts Energy expected, but in the long run, unless there is a clear slowdown in the international trade situation and signs of recovery in the global economy, there is limited room for oil prices to rebound.

For a short time, US crude oil is focused on 50% of 50.6% of 60.94, and 61.8% above this position is at $56.96. At any time, the short-term trend of US crude oil is expected to ease. Look at the $60 line. Below, 23.6% is on the $53 line, and falling below that level needs to be on guard against the risk of further downside.

Original title: Platts Energy: imports and exports both fell, but US refineries maintained a high operating rate, and stocks at EIA crude oil depots fell 4.7 million barrels this week.

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