Macro Roundup (Aug 16)

SHANGHAI, Aug 16 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar rose on Thursday, as better-than-expected US retail sales data eased fears that the US economy could be headed for a recession. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, gained 0.16% to 98.14.

On Thursday, the US Treasury yield curve still hovered around the inversion point, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell below 2% for the first time ever.

LME base metals closed mixed overnight, with the biggest gain of 1.8% in nickel. Lead rose 0.5%, and aluminium nudged up 0.03%, while zinc fell 0.4%, copper shed 0.5% and tin declined 0.6%.

SHFE base metals, except for copper and tin, ticked up overnight. Nickel was also the best performer, with a gain of 3.1%. Lead climbed 1%, zinc advanved 0.2%, and aluminium inched up 0.1%, while copper dipped 0.1% and tin lost 0.2%.

On the trade front, Hua Chunying, a spokesperson at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Beijing “hopes the US will meet China halfway and implement the consensus reached by the two leaders during their meeting in Osaka.” This came after China said it has to take necessary countermeasures for the latest US tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods.

US retail sales rose in July as consumers bought a range of goods even as they cut back on motor vehicle purchases, which could help ease financial markets’ fears that the world’s largest economy was heading into recession.

The US Commerce Department says retail sales rose a healthy 0.7% last month, after a 0.3% gain in June. Online retailers, grocery stores, clothing retailers and electronics and appliance stores all reported strong gains.

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but the trend continued to point to a strong labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 for the week ended August 10, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was revised to show 2,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Day ahead

The US will release building permits and housing starts data for July, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August and weekly oil rig count, while the Eurozone will publish trade balance data for June.

OPEC's monthly oil report is another key thing to watch.