SMM Evening Comments (Aug 15)

SHANGHAI, Aug 15 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals closed mostly lower as zinc and copper lost 0.7%, tin slid 0.4%, lead fell 0.3%, while nickel and aluminium climbed 0.3%. 

The ferrous complex also fell for the most part. Iron ore eased 2.8%, coking coal dipped 0.7%, coke lost 0.4%, while rebar grew 0.5%, and hot-rolled coil increased 0.7%. 

Copper: Trade uncertainties and negative global economic outlook continued to pressure copper prices. The most-active SHFE October contract fell steeply to an intraday low of 46,330 yuan/mt right after opening, and eased some losses to end at 46,440 yuan/mt, down 0.66% on the day. The contract has fallen below the Bollinger middle band, with pressure above from the 10-day moving average. Bearish technical signals are likely to see it struggling above 46,400 yuan/mt tonight. The SHFE August contract finished its last trading day with a settlement price of 46,250 yuan/mt, with a physical delivery volume of 19,325 mt. 

Aluminium: Renewed market talk that production in Shandong was affected by typhoon rallied the most-liquid SHFE October contract to a high of 14,315 yuan/mt around noon, before the contract gave up some gains and finished at 14,200 yuan/mt, up 0.28% on the day. Prices may continue to hover at highs tonight. The settlement price of the August contract stood at 14,195 yuan/mt. 

Zinc: The most-liquid October contract pared part of the losses from overnight as it climbed above the daily moving average, but it failed to shrug off pressure from the five-day moving average, ending down 0.69% on the day at 18,670 yuan/mt. Longs covered their positions amid expectations of higher near-term supplies. Tonight, the contract may consolidate around the five-day moving average with strong support from the 18,500 yuan/mt level. The SHFE August contract ended its last trading day with a settlement price of 18,665 yuan/mt, with 17,650 mt being delivered. 

Nickel: The most-liquid SHFE October contract held on to gains from overnight and traded within a narrow range today, ending up 0.26% on the day at 123,700 yuan/mt. Downward pressure remained from the five-day moving average. The contract is expected to continue to hover around the five-day moving average tonight. The August contract finished today with a settlement price of 122,980 yuan/mt and a delivery volume of 792 mt. 

Lead: The most-liquid SHFE September contract regained part of the losses as it rebounded near closing after shorts booked profits and left. It settled 0.3% lower on the day at 16,620 yuan/mt, with open interest down 1,388 lots to 44,250 lots. Strong support was seen from the Bollinger middle band, even as the five-day moving average moved downsides. The contract may attempt to hold above 16,500 yuan/mt tonight. The SHFE August contract settled at 16,495 yuan/mt, with a delivery volume of 11,075 yuan/mt.

Tin: The most-liquid SHFE September contract lacked upward momentum as it slipped to an intraday low of 133,110 yuan/mt right after opening, before it climbed and closed at 133,890 yuan/mt, down 0.39% on the day. Support below is seen from 132,000 yuan/mt, with pressure above from 134,500 yuan/mt.