Macro Roundup (Aug 15)-Shanghai Metals Market

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Macro Roundup (Aug 15)

Data Analysis 08:39:52AM Aug 15, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Aug 15 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

US Treasury bond yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007 on Wednesday, which sparked fears of an economic recession and led to a plunge on Wall Street.

The US dollar index rose 0.16% to 97.98. Gold gained, while oil prices dived more than 3%.

LME base metals, except for nickel, closed lower on Wednesday, with the biggest loss of 2.5% in zinc. Copper dropped 1.3%, lead fell 1%, tin declined close to 0.2% and aluminium dipped 0.06%.

Most SHFE base metals traded lower overnight. Zinc was also the worst performer, with a loss of 1%. Lead shed 0.8%, copper slipped 0.6% and tin lost 0.4%, while nickel gained 0.2% and aluminium rose 0.3%.

The chill the inverted curve sent through global markets was compounded by weak data from China and Germany.

Chinese industrial output rose in July at the slowest pace in more than 17 years, while German economy shrank in the second quarter.

Official data on Wednesday showed that China’s industrial output rose 4.8% in July from a year earlier, the slowest since February 2002. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast industrial output would rise 5.8% from a year earlier, slowing from 6.3% in June.

Fixed-asset investment for the first seven months of the year rose 5.7%, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, compared with a 5.8% rise forecast by analysts.

Retail sales growth was also weaker than expected, increasing 7.6% in July from a year earlier, compared with 9.8% in June. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected growth of 8.6%.

Europe’s largest economy, Germany, saw a dip of 0.1% in its gross domestic product (GDP) between April and June, showed data released on Wednesday. This weighed on the rest of the bloc, with Eurozone GDP growing by just 0.2% quarter on quarter, a significant slowdown from the 0.4% growth reported in the first three months of the year.

Disappointing economic data revived global demand fears, which, combined with a second week of unexpected builds in US crude inventories, added to the pressure on the oil markets.

US crude stocks grew by 1.6 million barrels in the week ended August 9, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 2.8 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday.

For the same week, gasoline stocks fell by 1.4 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an increase of 25,000 barrels.

Day ahead

The US will release retail sales and industrial output data for July as well as weekly jobless claims, while China will publish residential building sales for July.

Key Words:  Macroeconomics 

Macro Roundup (Aug 15)

Data Analysis 08:39:52AM Aug 15, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Aug 15 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

US Treasury bond yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007 on Wednesday, which sparked fears of an economic recession and led to a plunge on Wall Street.

The US dollar index rose 0.16% to 97.98. Gold gained, while oil prices dived more than 3%.

LME base metals, except for nickel, closed lower on Wednesday, with the biggest loss of 2.5% in zinc. Copper dropped 1.3%, lead fell 1%, tin declined close to 0.2% and aluminium dipped 0.06%.

Most SHFE base metals traded lower overnight. Zinc was also the worst performer, with a loss of 1%. Lead shed 0.8%, copper slipped 0.6% and tin lost 0.4%, while nickel gained 0.2% and aluminium rose 0.3%.

The chill the inverted curve sent through global markets was compounded by weak data from China and Germany.

Chinese industrial output rose in July at the slowest pace in more than 17 years, while German economy shrank in the second quarter.

Official data on Wednesday showed that China’s industrial output rose 4.8% in July from a year earlier, the slowest since February 2002. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast industrial output would rise 5.8% from a year earlier, slowing from 6.3% in June.

Fixed-asset investment for the first seven months of the year rose 5.7%, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, compared with a 5.8% rise forecast by analysts.

Retail sales growth was also weaker than expected, increasing 7.6% in July from a year earlier, compared with 9.8% in June. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected growth of 8.6%.

Europe’s largest economy, Germany, saw a dip of 0.1% in its gross domestic product (GDP) between April and June, showed data released on Wednesday. This weighed on the rest of the bloc, with Eurozone GDP growing by just 0.2% quarter on quarter, a significant slowdown from the 0.4% growth reported in the first three months of the year.

Disappointing economic data revived global demand fears, which, combined with a second week of unexpected builds in US crude inventories, added to the pressure on the oil markets.

US crude stocks grew by 1.6 million barrels in the week ended August 9, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 2.8 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday.

For the same week, gasoline stocks fell by 1.4 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an increase of 25,000 barrels.

Day ahead

The US will release retail sales and industrial output data for July as well as weekly jobless claims, while China will publish residential building sales for July.

Key Words:  Macroeconomics