8.14 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

On the market: yesterday, the US index closed up at 97.83, the outer metal turned red, the aluminum closed up 1785.5 US dollars / ton, up 15.5 US dollars / ton, up 0.88%, and the Shanghai aluminum high in the internal market fell back, down 45 yuan / ton to 14155 yuan / ton, down 0.32%.

Macro: 1) yesterday, Vice Premier Liu he spoke by telephone with US Trade Representative Lettershitzer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. The two sides agreed to speak again in the next two weeks. According to reports, the United States announced its next plan to impose a 10 per cent tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports to the United States, and decided to postpone tariffs on some goods, including mobile phones, computers, toys and shoes, until December 15. 2) CAAC: in July, the decline in automobile production and sales continued to narrow from the same period last year, with production and sales reaching 1.8 million and 1.808 million vehicles respectively, down 5 per cent and 12.1 per cent respectively over the previous month and 11.9 per cent and 4.3 per cent respectively over the same period last year. The year-on-year decline was 5.4 and 5.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.

Fundamentals: 1) recently, the proportion of imported ores used by alumina plants in Henan has increased, and the price of local bauxite has dropped by 30 to 50 yuan / ton compared with the previous month. The ore with Al-Si ratio of 6.0 in Guizhou and Guangxi has remained relatively stable, with Guizhou between 300 and 320 yuan / ton and Guangxi around 220 yuan / ton. (2) overseas alumina prices have fallen smoothly and the import window has continued to open, most likely due to the resumption of production of the overseas Hydro Brazilian alumina plant and the commissioning of EGA's 2 million tons of alumina project. 3) the starting rate of aluminum foil in July was 83.06%, which was 4.77% lower than that in June. In July / August, the food industry entered the off-season, the output of soft package and packaging foil fell, the air-conditioning inventory in the market was high, and the order of aluminum foil was affected. It is expected that the off-season market of air-conditioning foil will continue until the beginning of September.

Spot end: yesterday, the transaction price of Wuxi market in Shanghai was between 14230 and 14250 yuan / ton, and the rising water level was 20 to 30 yuan / ton, which was about 270 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous day. The spot market price in Hangzhou was between 14250 and 14260 yuan / ton. In the morning, a large household took the lead in receiving goods, and its receiving price was more recognized by the market. The holder actively shipped the goods, the middleman reversed the goods, and received more. With the large household receiving more than 10,000 tons of goods, the aluminum futures dropped slightly, the market transaction heat receded, and the self-transaction price between traders rose to 14230 yuan / ton. At this time, although the shippers have increased, the actual trading volume is not as good as the early stage. Because the increase in aluminum prices exceeds the scope of psychological acceptance downstream, downstream yesterday wait-and-see mood is strong, procurement is scarce. Yesterday, the overall transaction in East China was slightly worse.

Summary: pay attention to the new progress of capacity change of electrolytic aluminum plant in Shandong area.

(SMM Xuman 021 51595898)