Metals News
SMM Morning Comments (Aug 12)
price review forecast
Aug 12,2019

SHANGHAI, Aug 12 (SMM) –

Copper: Both LME and SHFE copper relinquished earlier gains on Friday night, as weak economic data from China, the UK and the US and lingering concerns over trade tensions between Washington and Beijing countered higher oil prices on expectations of more OPEC output cuts . Three-month LME copper closed its trading day 0.23% lower at $5,766.5/mt, while the most active SHFE October contract was a tad higher at 46,670 yuan/mt on Friday night. Copper prices are expected to weaken in seesaw trade today. LME copper is expected to trade between $5,740-5,790/mt today, with SHFE copper at 46,400-46,900 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen firm at 20-60 yuan/mt as the SHFE August contract will be delivered this week.

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium fell to a low of $1,770/mt on Friday before it closed 0.39% lower at $1,774/mt. LME aluminium weakened along with other metals, and is expected to move between $1,700-1,800/mt today. The most traded SHFE October contract came off from earlier highs on Friday night, as shorts loaded up positions. It finished the session marginally higher at 13,915 yuan/mt. SHFE aluminium is expected to trade between 13,850-13,950 yuan/mt today, with spot premiums of up to 40 yuan/mt.

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc tumbled to a new three-year low of $2,233/mt on Friday before it finished the trading day 2.74% lower at $2,240/mt. The contango structure and downbeat macro developments will continue to weigh on LME zinc, which is expected to trade between $2,210-2,260/mt today. The most active SHFE October contract followed its LME counterpart lower on Friday night, losing 1.42% to end at 18,380 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc has fallen for four consecutive trading days, standing below all moving averages. Strong support from 18,000 yuan/mt and potential short-covering are expected to limit declines in SHFE zinc, which is expected to trade between 18,100-18,600 yuan/mt today.

Nickel: Three-month LME nickel pulled back to $15,500/mt on Friday before it recovered some ground to end its trading day 1.07% lower at $15,660/mt. LME nickel remained above the five-day moving average. Resistance from the upper Bollinger band, as high as $16,000/mt, will come under scrutiny in the near term. The most traded SHFE October contract rebounded to a high of 127,100 yuan/mt on Friday night, before it lost all the gains to end 0.37% lower at 125,440 yuan/mt. Whether SHFE nickel could hold onto its ground at 125,000 yuan/mt is crucial to watch today.

Lead: Three-month LME lead erased earlier gains to close its trading day 0.53% lower at $2,064/mt on Friday. The wide backwardation on LME lead sparked concerns about a short squeeze. The most active SHFE September contract eased 0.42% to end at 16,735 yuan/mt on Friday night. Pressure was strong at 16,900 yuan/mt, and support from the 20-day moving average will come under scrutiny in the short term.

Tin: Three-month LME tin recovered from earlier losses to end at $16,870/mt on Friday. Resistance is seen at $17,200/mt, while support is at $16,500/mt. The most traded SHFE September contract weakened 0.5% to end at 134,850 yuan/mt on Friday night. Support is seen at 134,500 yuan/mt, while resistance is from the 40-day moving average as high as 136,800 yuan/mt.

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