SMM News: according to data released by the China Automobile Association, 1.01 million new energy passenger vehicles were wholesale from January to December 2018, an increase of 88.5 percent over the same period last year; the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.27 million and 1.256 million respectively, an increase of 59.9 percent and 61.7 percent respectively over the same period last year.
In the first half of 2019, the sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 617000, an increase of 49.6 per cent over the same period last year.
However, a few days ago, the CIRC's June insurance volume data, I am afraid we have to sweat for the second half of this year's sales growth.
Car company June data "upside down"
According to the new car license data released by the CIRC a few days ago, in June 2019, the number of pure electric passenger cars in China reached 154500, showing a state of rapid progress, and the overall environment seems to be in a good state. However, combined with the production and sales data released by the CAAC, the anomalies will be found.
According to the CAAC sales data, in June 2019, the domestic pure electric passenger car market sales and output of 113000 and 98000 respectively, but the number of insurance reached 154500, showing a "upside down" trend. This is the first time in 2019 that the number of insurance coverage and sales volume "upside down", and the difference between production and sales volume reached 41500 and 56500 vehicles. This suggests that at least 40,000 all-electric passenger cars that have been insured in June were in stock in the hands of dealers.
According to the normal process, manufacturers from the production of vehicles to the factory, and then to consumers to buy, which usually has 15-2 months, due to the lag, resulting in the data usually show a trend of output > sales > insurance. But in June there was an upside-down of output < sales < risk.
According to the data, traditional pure electric car enterprises and new forces have appeared inverted hanging phenomenon, of which Geely sold 9900 vehicles in June, the number of insurance was 17700; Changan sold 0.81vehicles, 16100; SAIC passenger cars sold 0.5, the number of insurance 9400. Among the new car-building enterprises, Weilai sold 1100 cars and covered 1800 vehicles, while the United public sold 800 cars and 1800 vehicles in danger. From these data, we can see that many companies in June are far more than sales.
Concentrated assault or impact on sales in the second half of the year
In December 2018, at the turn of the new year and the old year, the domestic pure electric vehicle market once appeared the phenomenon of "upside down" between insurance and sales. The reason for this is that when the subsidy policy expires at the end of the year, dealers should concentrate on "surprise" licensing before the next round of unfavorable subsidy policy comes out of Taiwan or takes effect.
This June's "upside down" is similar.
On June 25, the buffer period of a new round of national subsidy policy officially expired, and dealers took the opportunity to concentrate on inventory and grab cards in June. The "year-end effect", which only broke out at the end of the year, also appeared in June, which concentrated the subsequent sales figures in June, which could lead to an early "overdraft" of sales in July and beyond, which is bound to show a downward trend.
At the same time, in most limited cities, due to the limited number of licences, the concentration of licences in June will also create a "vacuum period", dealers also need time to digest this part of the licensed vehicles, which will also have a certain impact on sales in the second half of this year.
After nine years of rapid development, China has become the largest new energy vehicle production and marketing country in the world. The second half of each year is the second half of the new energy generation, in the first half of 2019, the cumulative sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 575000, an increase of 66 per cent over the same period last year.
From the current data, most car companies mainly rely on the travel market in the first half of the year to achieve good sales. It is important to note, however, that sales of new energy passenger vehicles have shown a gradual rise in previous years, but with the further decline of subsidies next year and the concentrated outbreak of data in June, the explosive growth of new energy vehicles is likely to "slow down" ahead of schedule.
(data sources: CIRC, CAAC)
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