Refined cobalt prices rally on hopes for lower output

Since 10 July, SMM Chinese sulfuric acid price index from Copper smelters has declined for 11 consecutive weeks on a weekly basis. This weekend, sulphuric acid prices were further reduced in some regions, with the ex-works price of 98% smelting acid falling below 1,000 yuan/mt. However, demand from the fertiliser industry has yet to show any clear improvement, and there are no signs that exports of sulphuric acid and phosphate fertiliser can be restarted, leaving the market dominated by a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

In August 2026, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgical intermediate products totaled approximately 7,876 physical tonnes, down 51% MoM but up 50% YoY. Of this, imports from the DRC were about 7,774 physical tonnes, down 51% MoM and up 62% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgical intermediate products in August 2026 was $15,495 per physical tonne, down 13.51% MoM. Of the intermediate products imported from the DRC this month, around 3,682 physical tonnes entered Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces as logistics goods under special customs supervision (bonded logistics), accounting for 46.8% of China's total imports; general trade accounted for about 3,913 physical tonnes, or 49.7%; and processing trade with imported materials accounted for about 179 physical tonnes, or 2.3%. In addition, China imported a combined 101 physical tonnes of intermediate products from South Africa, Vietnam, and Zambia via general trade this month. The decline in imports this month was mainly driven by two factors. First, typhoons in August forced port closures, delaying some cargoes originally scheduled to arrive in August into September. Second, cobalt salt prices kept falling through August, weakening smelters' willingness to purchase raw materials; miners struggled to conclude new tenders, and some chose to keep cargoes in storage in other overseas regions, waiting for demand to recover before shipping. From January to August 2026, China's cumulative imports of cobalt hydrometallurgical intermediate products reached 44,792 physical tonnes, down 84% YoY.

NBS data shows that China's sulphuric acid (100% equivalent) production in August was 7.984 million mt, down 308,000 mt from 7.676 million mt in July, a YoY decrease of 15.5%. The cumulative production of sulphuric acid (100% equivalent) in 2026 was 68.141 million mt, a cumulative YoY decrease of 4.6%. The top five regions by production were Yunnan province (1.1927 million mt), Anhui province (698,700 mt), Shandong province (680,600 mt), Henan province (570,200 mt), and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (568,800 mt). For detailed data, please refer to SMM Data.