[SMM Daily Review] non-ferrous metal line selection is expected to boost RMB by issuing central bank tickets in Hong Kong.

SMM8, June 6: today, the whole line of colored gold fluttered red, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel all closed up, Shanghai nickel rose 2.21%, Shanghai lead low pulled up 1.93%. Previous trade frictions have shrouded the metal market, but the devaluation of the renminbi has effectively supported domestic metal prices and played a "bottom" effect. Today, Yang Ma said that 30 billion yuan will be issued in Hong Kong on August 14, helping to tighten offshore renminbi liquidity and stabilize market expectations for the renminbi, which has stabilized for the time being. However, the outlook for the metals market is not optimistic. Today, the US Treasury Department listed China as a currency manipulator. Yang Ma responded: I deeply regret it. The black system continued yesterday's weak market, in yesterday's iron ore large area fell after the limit, today's wood price performance is weak.

In order to improve the yield curve of renminbi bonds in Hong Kong, the people's Bank of China will issue two issues of RMB central bank notes in Hong Kong on August 14, 2019, with a total issuance of 30 billion yuan, including 20 billion yuan in three-month central bank notes and 10 billion yuan in one-year central bank bills, Yang Ma said. Buoyed by the news, the offshore yuan rose sharply, easing fears of devaluation. "View detail

The people's Bank of China responded to the US Treasury's designation of China as a currency manipulator on Aug. 6. China deeply regrets that the US Treasury has listed China as a "currency manipulator," Yang said. This label is not in line with the quantitative standards of the so-called "exchange rate manipulators" set by the US Treasury Department itself. It is wayward unilateralism and protectionism, and there is no exchange rate manipulation in China. "View detail

On the copper side, news of the strike came out again. On August 5, local time, opponents of the (Southern Copper) Tia Maria project of Southern Copper held a strike in the Peruvian province of Arekipa, where the project is located. It is reported that the copper concentration area-southern Peru has held protests, resulting in blocked roads in the Cusco area and delays in the departure of ships from the port of Matarani. The Tia Maria project, which is expected to produce 120000 tons of copper a year, is an important part of the Grupo Mexico plan, and Raul Jacob5, the company's chief financial officer, said last month that the company would also invest an additional $10 billion in the plan to increase copper production from 987000 tons this year to 1.81 million tons in 2026. "detail View

Shanghai nickel remained high, mainly because of the news that the Indonesian nickel mining association had informed all its members that the Indonesian minister of energy and mining had signed a ministerial decree banning the export of raw mines. The Indonesian government will implement ahead of time the ban on nickel ore exports, which should have begun in 2022. But when asked if he planned to change the export ban, Bambang Gatot Ariyono, head of minerals and coal at the mining ministry, said, "I don't want to speculate on that." Under a 2017 mining rule, Indonesia will stop exporting raw ore from January 12, 2022, after leaving miners five years to build smelters.

Indonesian nickel mining company urged President Joko Widodo to open low-grade ore exports to all miners and introduce monthly benchmark interest rates to support domestic prices. According to Meidy Katrin Lengkey, secretary-general of the Indonesian nickel mining association, the government's policy of allowing only construction smelters to export puts local miners at a disadvantage because overseas prices are almost twice the local prices. The association wants local smelters to buy less nickel ore to attract supplies from smaller miners. View details "

Today, Shanghai lead performance is eye-catching, an increase of nearly 2%, mainly due to the reduction of lead market circulation shortage. According to SMM research, due to environmental inspection in Jiangxi Province, reduced lead market circulation source continues to be tight, and then affect the shipping price of recycled lead, recycled lead paste narrowed again today. "View detail

In terms of black, iron ore futures prices did not fall further today, but the settlement price was 2% lower than yesterday's close, while thread and hot coil continued to fall, closing down 1.88% and 1.14%, respectively. The decline is mainly due to iron ore traders after the spot sell-off, the cost side of the downward and led to the lower wood. Under the mode of low profit in steel mills, steel mills still do not reduce production significantly, and the empty side mainly plays a game with high output, low demand and high inventory, while many sides mainly play the logic of cost support, demand regression in peak season and the reduction of maintenance supply in low-profit steel mills.

In terms of crude oil, the previous oil closed down 0.67 percent to 430.5 yuan per ton. Crude oil prices have not fluctuated significantly on the supply and demand side, but they have raised concerns about demand in the context of trade frictions, and supply is likely to rise further. Therefore, crude oil is still a vulnerable variety.

A brief comment by SMM analyst on Aug. 6

Copper: today, Shanghai copper main contract 1909 opened in the morning at 46090 yuan / ton, after the opening of the day, the lowest position of 45970 yuan / ton, immediately after the rebound, continued to maintain the rising trend to 46140 yuan / ton, and then the center of gravity basically maintained at 46120 yuan / ton until the end of the afternoon, the opening of afternoon trading continued to rise, reached the highest level of 46240 yuan / ton in the afternoon, the end of the day fell slightly and closed at 46150 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.44%. Today, Shanghai Copper's main contract position increased by 4522 hands to 222000 hands, while trading volume decreased by 304000 hands to 322000 hands. The Shanghai Copper Index rose 39000 hands to 646000 today, while trading volume fell 530000 hands to 858000. Today, the overall performance of copper prices in Shanghai rose slightly, mainly maintained near the 46000 yuan / ton gate, mainly because the RMB continues to be weak and forms support for copper in Shanghai. Copper prices have not continued to fall in recent days, but Sino-US trade relations are still tense. We should pay further attention to the changes in the situation and will form a guide to copper prices. At present, Shanghai copper slightly closed in the sun, the bottom is still under the exploration of Brin under the track, KDJ indicators continue to be negative, the technical face of copper prices up is still lack of strong support. In the evening, wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai Copper can continue to stand at the 46100 yuan / ton gate.

Lead: Shanghai lead 1909 contract opened at 16370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day. At the beginning of the day, Shanghai lead basically ran along the daily average. In the afternoon, multiple heads added code to enter the market, Shanghai lead climbed all the way to 16600 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 16595 yuan / ton, up 1909 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.93%, and the position increased 3872 hands to 56488 hands. Shanghai lead closed Dayang line, to make up for some of the previous decline, the lower 40-day moving average has strong support, coupled with the drive of external lead, Shanghai lead at night or continue high shock, but also do not rule out the emergence of a phased pullback after the extremely rapid rise.

Zinc: the main 1909 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 19185 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day. At the beginning of the day, the center of gravity of Shanghai zinc operation revolved around 19170 yuan / ton. At noon, the short position left the market to boost the Shanghai zinc operation center of gravity to 19260 yuan / ton. It closed up 19265 yuan / ton, up 55 yuan / ton, up 0.29%, the trading volume decreased 73810 hands to 202000 hands, and the position decreased 17278 hands to 165000 hands. Shanghai zinc received a cross star in the day, the 20-day moving average above pressure, the main reason for the impact of macro fluctuations is stronger than the basic impact of the commodity itself, the macro mood turned pessimistic, bulls did not have sufficient confidence, superimposed RMB decline stabilized, Shanghai zinc upward trend has no effective support, night or run near the 20-day moving average.

Nickel: Shanghai nickel 1910 contract opened today at 118600 yuan / ton, before noon, shanghai nickel repeatedly down 118300 yuan / ton failed, the overall daily average of 118300 yuan / ton above the first line shock operation. Close near noon, Shanghai nickel down to 117600 yuan / ton line to get support, afternoon concussion revised up above the daily average, by the daily average to support a narrow range of fluctuations, finally closed at 118600 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price rose 2560 yuan / ton, up 2.21%, trading volume decreased 511000 hands to 1.036 million hands, holding capacity increased 7400 hands to 446000 hands. Throughout the day, the center of gravity of the Shanghai Ni 1910 contract revolved around a narrow range of 118400 yuan / ton, and finally closed at the Cross Star. In the evening, the Shanghai Ni 1910 contract is expected to operate in a range of 118000 yuan to 120000 yuan / ton.

In the process of updating.

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