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A Review of the spot Trading Day of SMM basic Metals on August 1

iconAug 1, 2019 18:09
Source:SMM
A Review of the spot Trading Day of SMM basic Metals on August 1

Copper: Yapan Lun Copper opened low at US $5918 / tonne today. Due to the influence of the Federal Reserve's partial hawk statement, copper prices fell below the US $5900 mark and fell by US $5895 / ton. However, after the short-term detection, copper prices quickly recovered to around US $5913 / ton above the daily average, maintaining a narrow range of concussion changes, and continued to maintain a concussion pattern until the beginning of the European market, with a probe higher than US $5923 / ton, but soon due to the long high position, the copper price quickly recovered to around US $5913 / ton above the daily moving average, and maintained a narrow range of concussion until the beginning of the European trade, with a probe higher than US $5923 / ton. Copper prices bottomed out at $5893.5 a tonne, and their lows were unsustainable, and copper prices rose again to an intraday high of $5924 a tonne. At 17-30, bronze was down 0.45% at $5921.5 a tonne, the dollar index at $98.982 and crude at $57.81 a barrel. In the evening, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ended July 27 is expected to be 21.4 higher than the previous value, and the PMI for the US ISM manufacturing industry in July is expected to be 52 higher than the previous value. After last night's rate cut, the Fed interpreted the rate cut as hawkish because of the good performance of US jobs, so the dollar rose 99 per cent and copper prices came under pressure. At present, the Lun Copper Yang entity has completely fallen below all the recent EMA support, the KDJ index is still expanding in parallel, and there is no rebound signal on the technical side. Wait for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether Lentong can hold the $5900 / ton mark at night. Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper 1909 opened at 46540 yuan / ton in the morning, the lowest level of 46540 yuan / ton in the lower day of trading, and then the center of gravity moved up slightly and settled around 46600 to 46660 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the disk continued to rise slightly to the highest level of 46680 yuan / ton in the day. After a small probe, the center of gravity fell to 46640 yuan / ton due to lack of market confidence. The center of gravity fell to 46640 yuan / ton and closed at 46620 yuan / ton, the end of the day fell slightly and closed at 46620 yuan / ton. after a small probe, the market confidence continued to fall, the center of gravity fell to 46640 yuan / ton, and the end of the day fell slightly and closed at 46620 yuan / ton. It fell 230 yuan per ton, or 0.49 percent. Today, Shanghai Copper's main contract position decreased by 6778 hands to 223000 hands, while trading volume decreased by 38000 hands to nearly 100000 hands. Position performance continued to move back, with Shanghai Copper 1910 contract positions increasing by 12000 to 185000. The Shanghai Copper Index rose 8040 hands to 600000 today, while trading volume fell 77000 hands to 238000. Shanghai Copper continued to pour a large amount of capital into the non-ferrous plate today, reaching 108 million, mainly as a short position increase. At present, the macro event has come to an end for the time being. Although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, Powell has made hawkish remarks about this. The market has doubts about whether it will continue to adopt a policy of substantial easing. The US dollar continues to soar today, pushing up the 99 pass level. At a high level in the past two years, non-ferrous metals have been under pressure, and copper prices have also shown a low shock. At present, Shanghai copper closed negative, fell below the middle track of Brin, and lost all EMA support, MACD index has red column to green, technical performance negative copper price. In the evening, wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai Copper can hold the 46500 yuan / ton gate. Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is 30 ~ 90 yuan / ton, the transaction price of flat water copper is 46600 yuan / ton ~ 46640 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of copper is 46640 yuan / ton ~ 46680 yuan / ton. Short positions continued to increase, Shanghai copper fell to 46600 yuan / ton first-line finishing. Today entered the first day of August, corporate capital pressure eased, superimposed disk performance fell, boosting market consumption, early quotation water 30 70 yuan / ton, low price flat water copper was quickly closed, after flat water copper stable in the water 50 yuan / ton line, good copper quotation raised to 80 water 90 yuan / ton, but good copper buy not flat water copper; wet copper today standing above the water, flat water 10 yuan / ton. Copper futures continued to fall, with high prices for holders, an increase in bargain buying downstream, a marked increase in the activity of traders and a substantial improvement in overall trading. In the afternoon, the market price is still low, the market quotation is affected by the active trading in the morning, the holder maintains the firm price rhythm, the quotation is raised slightly. In the afternoon, copper water 40-80 yuan / ton, good copper 70-80 yuan / ton, transaction price in the range of 46600 yuan / ton-46680 yuan / ton. Phellodendron mandshurica (Thunb.)

Aluminum: Lun Al opened at US $1798 per ton in the morning, below all EMA. In the Asian session, Lun Aluminum remained weak and volatile after hitting a high of $1799 a tonne, trading at $1792 a tonne as of 15: 00. In Europe, the aluminium remained weak and volatile, with its center of gravity continuing to move down, hitting a low of $1785 a tonne, trading at $1788 a tonne as of 17: 31. In the early hours of the morning, the Fed cut interest rates as scheduled, and hawkish comments pushed the US index to a two-year high, which continued to put pressure on non-ferrous metals as a whole, while Lun Aluminum showed relative resistance. Lun Al is expected to continue to maintain a weak shock in the evening, waiting for the US index to fall back.

 

Shanghai Aluminum main 1909 contract opened in the morning at 13870 yuan / ton. After the opening of the market into Duoping Shanghai aluminum to maintain shock down, fell below the 10 / 20 moving average, low hit 13840 yuan / ton in the afternoon. Subsequently, profits left the market short, Shanghai aluminum recovered slightly, in the afternoon trading high before the close of the high of 13875 yuan / ton. Afternoon funds continue to leave the market, Shanghai aluminum shock operation in the 10 / 20 moving average, closing at 13855 yuan / ton. Positions fell 13736 hands to 224266 hands, while Shanghai Aluminum Index positions fell 3294 hands to 712526 hands. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as scheduled, but the US Index unexpectedly continued to rise, and the external pressure suffered from domestic pressure fell synchronously, but because the domestic electrolytic aluminum consumption was still OK, there was no continuous accumulation in the off-season, while at the same time, there was still an expectation that consumption would improve at the end of the third quarter. Shanghai Aluminum showed a more resistant to decline.

 

Spot market, aluminum futures in the current month to interval concussion. The transaction price of aluminum ingots in Wuxi and Shanghai is between 13860 and 13880 yuan / ton, the rising water on the plate is 10 to 20 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum ingots in Hangzhou is between 13890 and 13910 yuan / ton. In the morning, the prices of Shanghai and tin are mostly concentrated between 13860 and 13870 yuan / ton, rising 10 yuan / ton to the plate, and a large household receiving more than 10,000 tons before noon, the holder is active in shipping, the middleman is active in trading, and the overall transaction activity of the market is relatively high. After 11: 00, the number of recipients is obviously more than that of shippers, and the shippers are optimistic about the tightening of the supply of goods in the superimposed East China market in the future, and the willingness to ship begins to converge. Spot rising water then rose to around 20 yuan per ton. Downstream today is still mainly on-demand procurement, there is no obvious bright spot. East China today as a whole, the deal is good. Aluminum in the afternoon to maintain range fluctuations, although the market holders quoted between 13870 to 13880 yuan / ton, the plate water rise around 20 yuan / ton, but there are few transactions.

 

Lead: within a day, Lun lead opened at US $2010.5 / tonne. In the Asian session, the US finger brushed a new high in the last two years, suppressing the trend of non-ferrous metals on the outer plate, and the center of gravity of Lun lead also moved down to US $1994.5 per tonne. As of 16 to 35, Lun lead briefly closed at US $1983 per tonne, down US $3.50 / tonne, down 1.61 per cent. Lun lead temporarily closed the bald middle negative line, running near the middle rail of Brin Road, and the 5-10-day EMA formed a dead fork. At night, Lun lead may continue to weaken, so it is difficult to recover 2000 US dollars / ton integer gate.

 

Within a day, the Shanghai lead 1909 contract opened at 16565 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, short positions increased into the market, Shanghai lead shock down to 16435 yuan / ton line operation, after the market pessimism intensified, Shanghai lead center of gravity continued to move down, and once as low as 16360 yuan / ton, finally closed at 16385 yuan / ton, down 225 yuan / ton, down 1.35%, position reduced 3566 hands to 60162 hands. Shanghai lead report extended the upper shadow Daying line, the short-term EMA turned downward, but the decline in the past two trading days was mainly due to multiple departure from the place, the material downward space is limited, the 20-day EMA support can still be expected, the Shanghai lead at night or in the range formed by the 10-20 EMA.

 

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 16395-16425 yuan / ton, 1908 contract water 20-50 yuan / ton, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Jijin, Wanyang, Yuguang, Minshan, copper crown lead 16335 yuan / ton, 1908 contract discount 40-20 yuan / ton. Futures fell again, the holder quoted price, but some traders low price, market price discount narrowed slightly, and the improvement of downstream battery market demand is limited, storage enterprises to purchase on demand, in addition, spot and warehouse receipt price difference still exists, bulk order market overall trading activity is general.

 

Guangdong market Nanhua lead 16400 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead water 50 yuan / ton quotation; gold price 16295 yuan / ton, 1908 contract discount 80 yuan / ton; sands 16340 yuan / ton, 1909 contract discount 100 yuan / ton; lead price shock is weak, holders actively ship, downstream on demand procurement, market transactions are general. Henan Yuguang and other smelters to long single transaction; Wanyang, Jinli 16250 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead discount 16250 yuan / ton quotation; lead price shock is weak, storage enterprises meet low demand to replenish the warehouse, the market transaction is general. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16350 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead water quoted price (traders source); Hunan Jingui 16250 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 16250 yuan / ton; Jiangxi copper 16400 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 50 yuan / ton; Yunnan area small factory quoted 16000 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price discount 350 yuan / ton; lead price continues to weaken, battery enterprises purchase on demand, market trading sentiment is general.

 

Zinc: Geneva zinc opened at US $2439 / tonne, and at the beginning of the day, the daily average of zinc was down to US $2420 per tonne. Subsequently, Len Zinc tried to rise back to detect the daily average, but failed to fall back under pressure and entered the European trading session. After the high consolidation of the US Index, it went up again, and Len Zinc was thwarted and quickly went down. after probing lower US $2386 / ton, it stopped falling and repaired. As of 16 / 24, Len Zinc closed at US $2396.5 / tonne. It fell $41 a tonne, or 1.68%. Geneva zinc received a bald big Yin column, the overall pressure Brin Road middle rail operation, the United States Index returned to a high level to strike Len Zinc down, the superimposed LME zinc library exists under the contango structure to record an increase again, the overseas supply side is temporarily relaxed, the market still has expectations for the subsequent inventory increase, night Lun Zinc or still under pressure Brin Road middle rail operation.

 

The main 1909 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 19355 yuan / ton within a day. At the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc briefly touched high and quickly went down, focusing on the 20-day moving average of 19290 yuan / ton. During this period, several attempts to go up failed to effectively break through the 10-day EMA suppression, falling 19235 yuan / ton, closing 19265 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton, down 1.28%. The trading volume decreased 4650 hands to 292000 hands, and the position decreased 21580 hands to 213000 hands. The zinc in Shanghai was overcast twice in the day, and the pressure on the middle track of Brin Road on the shadow line returned to the 20-day moving average. The Fed's scheduled interest rate cut was digested by the market in the early stage, and Shanghai zinc returned to fundamental operation again. Inventory has not yet increased under the condition of weak consumption. Superimposed high temperature weather is still a drag on downstream construction, market bearish sentiment is still strong, and bullish confidence weakens high selling pressure. At night, Shanghai zinc may still be weak near the 20-day moving average.

 

Shanghai 0 # zinc mainstream transaction 1960 19400 yuan / ton, Shuangyan 1980 1930 yuan / ton; 0 # ordinary August water rise 90 110 yuan / ton; Shuangyan August water rising report 110 120 yuan / ton; 1 # mainstream transaction 19290 1930 yuan / ton. Today, the market trading atmosphere improved obviously, the morning quotation to the month ordinary rise 90 yuan / ton, and the market transaction volume is considerable, the long order first week delivery cycle is approaching, the tradesman order replenishment demand is more. The contract structure has improved and the spot circulation is limited, and the holding company has increased the sentiment of cherishing and selling. Entering the second trading period, the market water price continued to rise, from 90 yuan / ton to 110 yuan / ton, and 120 yuan / ton, etc., and the actual mainstream transaction moved up to 100 yuan / ton. Shanghai zinc prices down, today downstream slightly purchasing demand into the market. Overall market transactions today are much better than yesterday.

 

Guangdong 0 # zinc mainstream transaction in 1930 19280 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc 1909 contract discount 60 to 50 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai market discount 120 yuan / ton yesterday to 160 yuan / ton discount. Refinery normal shipment, the market supply circulation is more abundant. The quotation of the holder is concentrated in the 09 contract paste 40 yuan / ton or so, but the market transaction is reflected in the 09 contract discount 50 yuan / ton or so, enters the second trading period, the holder quotation focuses on the 09 contract discount 60-discount 50 yuan / ton, the market transaction is mostly contributed by the trader, mainly because the downstream order is not good and the high temperature continuous production is blocked, the overall transaction volume is slightly better than yesterday, but the whole is still poor. 0# Kirin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 1930 to 19280 yuan / ton.

 

Tianjin market 0 # zinc ingot mainstream transaction in 1930 to 20160 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary brand mainstream transaction in 1930 to 1990 yuan / ton, 1908 contract water 40 to 80 yuan / ton, Tianjin market than Shanghai market discount 30 yuan / ton yesterday to 40 yuan / ton, mainly due to the Shanghai market rising water. A small decline in the disk, refineries maintain normal shipment, the morning holder quotation focused on the 08 contract water 40 100 yuan / ton, but the downstream is mainly cautious wait-and-see, the willingness to receive goods is not good, and then some holders took the lead in lowering the high price brand supply to 80 yuan / ton, low-price brand goods source concentrated in the 09 contract water 40 / 50 yuan / ton, but after the price adjustment, the market transaction has not been significantly boosted. Overall, today's Tianjin market continues to be priceless, the trading atmosphere is relatively light, downstream due to bearish sentiment is stronger, transaction volume is not as good as yesterday. 0 # Zijin, Hongye, lark, Chihong, etc., were sold in 1930-1990 yuan / ton, and 1 # Zijin, Chihong, Hongye, etc., were sold in 19280-1940 yuan / ton.

 

Tin: after the opening of the Lunxi electronic disk today at US $17385 / tonne, between early trading and midday trading in Asian trading, Lunxi fell to US $17310 / tonne before bottoming out, climbing to US $17465 / tonne and falling all the way down to US $17200 / tonne. After the opening of the European trading, as LME tin stocks fell 910 tons, Lunxi prices rose, as of 17-15, Lunxi's latest price of $17370 / ton, a cross, the upper shadow line pressure on the 5-day moving average, it is expected that the support below Lunxi is located at the integer gate of $17000 / ton. This evening, you can focus on the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending July 27 (10,000), the final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI, the monthly rate of US construction expenditure in June (%) and the July ISM manufacturing PMI in the US.

 

Shanghai tin main 1909 contract last night after the opening of 133790 yuan / ton, the initial rush to 134600 yuan / ton after maintaining in the vicinity of 134500 yuan / ton shock finishing. After opening 134300 yuan / ton in early trading this morning, the market initially hit an intraday high of 135390 yuan / ton and fell all the way down. Finally, it closed at 134330 yuan / ton, up 490 yuan / ton, or 0.37 per cent. The trading volume was 23750, an increase of 4720. The number of positions was 23900, a reduction of 1716. Today, Shanghai tin overall showed a high downward trend, with a small positive line closing, the upper shadow line bearing pressure on the 5-20 EMA, it is expected that the short-term Shanghai tin resistance above 135600 yuan / ton, below support around 134000 yuan / ton.

 

Spot market, today's mainstream trading price of 134500136500 yuan / ton. Due to the high price of Shanghai tin in the morning, the buying interest of downstream enterprises is relatively weak, and some traders are cautious in purchasing a small amount of low-priced goods. Tin prices fell in the afternoon, but the actual transaction did not improve. Shanghai tin spot market today transaction is weak. Set Yunxi rising water 1000 to 1200 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud character rising water 600 to 800 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 300 to 400 yuan / ton.

 

Nickel: nickel trading opened today at US $14485 / tonne, early in the day, or due to the strong rise in the US dollar, Lennie concussion down, down US $14220 / ton. Subsequently, the rebound rebounded to the daily average near $14350 / ton pressure shock, as of 16-30, reported at $14325 / ton. Lun Ni temporarily closed in the lower shadow line Xiao Yin line, below the 5, 10-day moving average intersection support, the evening is expected to Lun Ni 14300 to 14500 US dollars / ton range shock operation. The evening data looked at the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending July 27 (10,000), the final value of Markit manufacturing PMI in July and the monthly rate of US construction spending in June. The incident focused on the Bank of England's release of interest rate decisions, minutes of meetings and inflation reports.

 

Shanghai nickel 1910 opened today at 113530 yuan / ton, the initial pressure of 114000 yuan / ton customs, long reduction, Shanghai nickel all the way down, lower 111810 yuan / ton, below by the 5-day EMA support, a small rebound up, to the daily average 113000 yuan / ton first line pressure shock, closed at 112590 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price rose 110 / ton, 0.1%, position decreased 1686 hands to 371000 hands, Trading volume increased by 179000 hands to 1.01 million hands. Throughout the day, the Shanghai Ni 1910 contract closed at the upper shadow line Yang Cross Star, the center of gravity fluctuated in the 10-day moving average of 112600 yuan / ton, and the Shanghai nickel contract is expected to run in the 112000-114000 yuan / ton range in the evening.

 

SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 112700 to 114800 yuan / ton. Russian nickel than Shanghai nickel 1909 discount 300-paste 250yuan / ton, Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1909 contract generally reported a rise of 1600 to 1800 yuan / ton, today traders generally quoted Shanghai nickel 1909. Early trading hours, nickel prices fell back to 112800 tons near consolidation, holders due to the contract month, have downgraded the rising water, but downstream continue to fear high and cautious procurement, holders support the willingness to lift water is still strong, mainly because the spot circulation supply is not very abundant. It is difficult for traders to collect goods because of low prices, and the trading is equally light. In the second trading session, nickel prices continued to explore, basically around 112000 to stop falling, spot trading slightly warmer, but the overall is still not optimistic, the downstream is still more in the wait-and-see. Jinchuan Company Shanghai quoted price of 114000 yuan / ton, up from yesterday, the mainstream transaction at 111700 to 114200 yuan / ton. Nickel prices rebounded slightly in the afternoon, but spot trading is still calm, trading convergence all day yesterday, the holder is willing to rise strong, downstream fear of high cautious wait-and-see, the mainstream transaction in 112000-114200 yuan / ton.

 

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