July 31 SMM basic Metals spot Trading Day Review

Copper: Yapan Lun Copper opened at US $5945 / tonne today. After the opening of trading, due to optimistic expectations for the ongoing Sino-US trade negotiations, long lows increased positions, and copper prices rose slightly. Until the European market was up US $5966 / ton, but then due to no real positive results in the trade negotiations, copper prices were as low as US $5935.5 / ton. After the low maintained, copper prices rose again. At 17-20, bronze was up 0.46% at $5960.5 a tonne, the dollar index at $98.111 and crude oil at $58.45 a barrel. Evening attention to the U. S. July ADP employment forecast of 150000 higher than the previous value, the United States EIA crude oil inventory changes in the week ended July 26 is expected to fall 2.7393 million barrels lower than the previous value. The results of the Fed rate cut will be released after the evening rest, so the evening small non-farm data will affect the market's judgment on the rate cut, and the dollar is expected to remain high, putting pressure on copper prices. At present, Lun Copper Yang entity fell to the bottom of the middle rail of Brin, MACD appeared a small green column, the technical side remained weak. Wait for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether Lentong can hold the $5960 / ton mark at night.

Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper 1909 opened at 46850 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening, the center of gravity was basically maintained near the daily average, until the center of gravity moved up to 46910 yuan / ton in the afternoon. The position of the center of gravity remained basically unchanged in the afternoon. By the end of the day, the disk closed at 46720 yuan / ton, down 1909 yuan / ton, down 1.06 percent. Shanghai Copper's main contract today reduced its position by 1472 hands to 230000, mainly by long positions, while trading volume increased by 1190 hands to 138000. The backward trend was evident today, with Shanghai Copper 1910 contract positions increasing by 23000 to 173000, Shanghai Copper Index by 25000 to 592000 and trading volume by 39000 to 314000. Today, Shanghai copper in the non-ferrous plate capital inflows, inflows reached 316 million, mainly because of the influx of short funds into 1910 contracts. At present, the 12th round of negotiations between China and the United States is basically over, the trade outlook is still uncertain, the market is tense again, and the overall performance of copper prices is low and volatile. Today, Shanghai copper closed the physical Daying column, the upper pressure 5-day moving average, MACD index red column greatly shortened, KDJ index also showed negative expansion, the technical side unfavorable copper price rose. Keep an eye on the outcome of the Fed's interest rate decision tonight, which will guide copper prices. In the evening, wait for the outside guidance to test whether Shanghai Copper can hold the 46700 yuan / ton gate.

Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is quoted for 10 to 70 yuan per ton of water, 46800 yuan to 46850 yuan per ton of copper for flat water and 46840 yuan to 46880 yuan per ton for copper in water. Overnight copper fell all the way to a low of US $5938 per ton. Shanghai copper jumped as low as 46780 yuan per ton. Today, copper prices were sorted out in a narrow range around 46800 yuan per ton. Spot early continue yesterday's quotation 20 to 60 yuan / ton, in the morning market, there are a large number of large traders to ship 10 yuan / ton of flat water copper, so attract some traders to take the initiative to receive goods at low prices, then flat water copper stable in the rising water 30 yuan / ton or so; the holder persistent firm quotation, good copper was raised around 70 yuan / ton; wet copper following the market small upward quotation, the lower reaches of the bargain to buy more. Copper futures fell sharply, attracting the market to buy, the transaction has improved slightly from the previous two days, and will enter August tomorrow, if the capital is abundant, it will prompt the rising water to rise further. In the afternoon, due to the low willingness of market holders to ship, the market circulation of goods is less, coupled with the afternoon disk prices have declined, the market quotation has increased. In the afternoon, copper water 30-40 yuan / ton, good copper 60-70 yuan / ton, transaction price in the range of 46800 yuan / ton-46920 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Lun Al opened at US $1802 per ton in the morning. In Asia, it bounced back only after hitting $1801.5 a tonne, rising above the 40 / 60-day moving average and breaking the 5-day moving average before noon, hitting a high of $1815.5 a tonne. In the afternoon, Lun Aluminum gave up its gains and stepped back on its 40 / 60 moving average, trading at $1804.5 a tonne as of 15: 00. In Europe, Lun Aluminum continued to fluctuate near the 5-day moving average, reporting $1810 a tonne as of 17: 05. Against the backdrop of strong interest rate expectations, the high US index has limited pressure on Lunal, which is expected to remain volatile above its lowest 40 / 60-day moving average in the evening, even with an additional 5000 tons in LME inventory reports today. There is also a need to pay attention to the Fed's decision to cut interest rates on the dollar in the early hours of the morning, when the US index may fall back, and Lun Aluminum may rise to some extent tomorrow.

Shanghai Aluminum main 1909 contract opened in the morning at 13930 yuan / ton. After the opening of a small increase in short positions, Shanghai aluminum shock down, touching the lower 5-day moving average, low lead to more empty, Shanghai aluminum shock upward afternoon high touch 13935 yuan / ton. At the end of the plate, the empty entry was flat, and the low level of Shanghai aluminum reached 13890 yuan / ton, closing at 13895 yuan / ton. Positions fell by 1078 hands to 238002 hands, while Shanghai Aluminum Index positions fell by 1948 hands to 715820 hands. The Fed's decision to cut interest rates on the dollar in the early hours of the morning kept both sides on the sidelines, Shanghai Aluminum kept a narrow range of volatility, and Shanghai Aluminum is expected to maintain a narrow range of volatility in the evening, relatively low may attract a small number of bulls to enter ahead of time. If interest rates and social aluminum ingot stocks continue to fall together, Shanghai aluminum may rise by more than 14000 yuan / ton tomorrow.

In the spot market, aluminum futures fell in the first trading phase of the month, followed by a rebound in lows. In the morning, the spot price of aluminum ingots in Wuxi and Shanghai was between 13900 and 13910 yuan / ton, about 10 yuan / ton on the flat surface, about 10 yuan / ton higher than yesterday, and the aluminum rose at the end of 11:00. The market price gradually concentrated around 13910 to 13920 yuan / ton, and the price on the plate was flat-up 10 yuan / ton, and the price in Hangzhou was between 13910 and 13930 yuan / ton. Today, a large company does not have a procurement plan on the wire, but the trading between the traders themselves is still active. It is understood that although the price has risen slightly, but the holder has not further actively shipped, on the contrary, it is part of the middleman who is expected to improve in the future. Today, the delivery of goods is more positive, making the market transaction price performance strong, but at the same time, some middlemen believe that there are uncertain factors during the Sino-US trade negotiations, so there is no big move in and out today. Downstream today is still mainly on-demand procurement, traders feedback, due to the end of the month, downstream in the context of high market prices or due to settlement factors, there is no large number of purchases. The overall transaction in East China today was all right. The afternoon aluminum range fluctuated and sank at the end of the day. Although some traders still wanted to receive goods around 13900 to 13910 yuan / ton, it was difficult for the holders to agree on the price, and there was almost no deal between the two sides.

Lead: within a day, the Lun lead opened at US $2001 / ton. In the Asian period, the Lun lead basically ran along the daily average. In the afternoon, the American finger ran along the upward channel, suppressing the trend of non-ferrous metals on the outer plate. Lun lead also fell under pressure. In the European period, Lun lead once reached US $1981.5 / ton, low to undertake low entry, Lun lead rose slightly, as of 16 to 50, Lun lead temporarily closed at US $1990.5 / ton, down US $10 / ton. Down 0.5%. Lun lead temporarily closed the small negative line, fell below the US $2000 / ton integer mark, today LME lead inventory increased by more than 10,000 tons, and LME lead premium contango structure continues to show signs of expansion, the internal and external positive market basically ended, night Lun lead or continue to weaken along the downward channel.

Within a day, the Shanghai lead 1909 contract opened at 16610 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, affected by the weak trend of the external market, some bulls chose high risk aversion to leave the market, the Shanghai lead center of gravity moved down to 16560 yuan / ton first line operation, near the end of the day, non-ferrous metals weakened as a whole, Shanghai lead also fell to 16485 yuan / ton, finally closed at 16505 yuan / ton, down 215 yuan / ton, down 1.29%, and the position was reduced by 90 hands to 63728 hands. Shanghai lead closed Dayin line, concussion in the high, and the 5-day moving average turn downward, considering that the outer plate of lead may continue to weaken, Shanghai lead will not escape the weak market at night, but the platform below 16300 yuan / ton still has strong support.

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 1650516535 yuan / ton, 1908 contract water 20 50 yuan / ton, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Jijin, Wanyang, Yuguang, Minshan, copper crown lead 16435 16465 yuan / ton, 1908 contract discount 50 20 yuan / ton. The logic of lead going to the warehouse has changed, the lead in Shanghai has returned to the fundamentals, the futures market has returned again, the downstream has maintained on-demand procurement, the inquiry has increased compared with yesterday, and the trading activity in the bulk market is slightly better, but the actual trading volume in the trade market is still limited because of the price advantage of the refinery supply.

Guangdong market Nanhua lead 16525 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead water 50 yuan / ton quotation; gold price 16405 yuan / ton, 1908 contract discount 80 yuan / ton; sands 16455 yuan / ton, 1909 contract discount 100 yuan / ton; lead price shock is weak, holders actively ship, downstream on demand procurement, market transactions are general. Henan Yuguang and other smelters to long single transaction; Wanyang, Jinli 16375 to 16425 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton to discount 100 yuan / ton quotation; lead price shock fell back, storage enterprises meet low demand replenishment, the market transaction is general. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16475 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat water quotation (source of goods for traders); Hunan Jingui 16375 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 16375 yuan / ton; Yunnan small factories quoted 16125 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 350 yuan / ton; the holder actively ships, the terminal consumption has not seen the obvious improvement, the market trading mood is general.

Zinc: Geneva zinc opened at US $2448 / tonne. At the beginning of the day, Len Zinc briefly rose to US $2455 / tonne. However, the 40-day moving average was strongly suppressed. After probing down the 5-day EMA, Xu Li rose to US $2450 per ton. During the European trading period, with the rise of the US finger, Lun Zinc was frustrated rapidly, which coincided with the rapid decline of LME zinc stocks, and Lun Zinc was thwarted again. After exploring US $2421.5 / ton, it was rearranged, as of 16-44, Zinc closed down $16, or 0.65 per cent, at $2427.5 a tonne. Geneva zinc temporarily closed for two days, above the 40-day moving average suppression still exists, the overseas back structure has narrowed slightly, LME zinc stocks recorded an increase of more than 4, 000 tons, the market for follow-up positions may still have expectations, night Lun zinc or still around Brindao middle rail range concussion, pay attention to macro news guidance at night.

The main 1909 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 19555 yuan / ton within a day, and the bulls left the market neatly at the beginning of the day, dragging down Shanghai zinc to 19430 yuan / ton, showing the support of the 10-day moving average below, and the Shanghai zinc storage capacity rose to 19500 yuan / ton. However, the suppression of the integer level above was strong, Shanghai zinc was difficult to break through, under pressure, 19370 yuan / ton, closed down to 19385 yuan / ton, down 230 yuan / ton, down 1.17%, trading volume decreased 76438 hands to 296000 hands. Reduce your position by 18832 to 235000. During the day, Shanghai zinc stopped rising and closing, supported in the middle rail operation of Brin Road, KDJ index turning down, showing that Shanghai zinc return kinetic energy is limited, the overall downward trend is more obvious, the capital transfer within the day, 1910 and 1911 contracts increased by 12800 hands, the main contract long position reduction, near weak far strong pattern further appeared, night attention Brindao middle rail support strength.

Shanghai 0 # zinc mainstream transaction is 19510 to 19590 yuan / ton, Shuangyan is sold in 19520 to 19600 yuan / ton; 0# ordinary pair of August water rising water is 70 to 85 yuan / ton; Shuangyan is reported to raise water to August 90 to 100 yuan / ton; 1 # mainstream transaction is 1940 to 1990 yuan / ton. On the last trading day of the month, the market trading sentiment further weakened, the early market quotation to the August rise of 70 to 80 yuan / ton, some holders cherish the selling sentiment rose slightly, the quotation as high as 85 yuan / ton to August, the overall market transaction is very few. Entering the second trading period, the disk was lower, and the offer of traders was fully adjusted to 80 yuan per ton in August, but the transaction was still not improved. After the decline, downstream purchasing today is slightly better than yesterday, but due to hot weather and other reasons downstream construction is less active, the overall downstream demand is still poor.

Guangdong 0 # zinc mainstream trading in 1980 1980 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc 1909 contract discount 80 to 70 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market to maintain the discount around 120 yuan / ton yesterday. Refinery normal shipment, the market supply circulation is more abundant, in the morning some of the holders quoted price in the average price of-10 yuan / ton, some concentrated in the 09 contract quoted in the discount 60-discount 70 yuan / ton, but downstream participation is not strong, the receiver is willing to receive the 09 discount 70 to 80 yuan / ton, the market transaction is slightly deadlocked, the overall market trading atmosphere continues light, the disk is slightly downward, the market transaction is slightly deadlocked, the overall market trading atmosphere is light, and the plate is slightly downward, if the willingness to participate in the downstream is not strong, the receiver is willing to receive the goods at the 09 discount of 70 yuan to 80 yuan / ton. The market shipment situation is only slightly better than yesterday. 0# Kirin, Cishan, Tiefeng and Mengzi mainstream were sold at about 1980 yuan / ton.

Tianjin market 0 # zinc ingot mainstream transaction in 1960-20240 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary brand mainstream transaction in 1960-19570 yuan / ton, 1908 contract water 30-70 yuan / ton, Tianjin market than Shanghai market discount 20 yuan / ton to discount 30 yuan / ton. Refinery normal shipment, the market supply of goods is abundant. In the morning, the quotation of the holder focused on the increase of 30 to 80 yuan / ton for the 08 contract, in which the transaction volume of the high-priced brand in the market was relatively limited, and the holder saw the downward trend to 60 to 70 yuan / ton for the 08 contract, and the transaction improved slightly. Today, the trading atmosphere in Tianjin market continues to be light, the market bearish mood is still strong, mostly waiting to wait and see, the willingness to receive goods is not good. Overall, today's Tianjin market transactions are basically flat compared with yesterday, 0 # Zijin, Hongye, lark, Chihong and other transactions in 1960 19570 yuan / ton, 1 # Zijin, Chihong, Hongye and other transactions in 1910 19520 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of the $17480 / ton electronic disk today, the overall price remained volatile near the opening price, and fell rapidly to $17350 / ton at the end of the Asian session. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi hit bottom and rose back, as of 17-00, Lunxi's latest price of $17415 / ton, a small negative line, located below all EMA, below the Lunxi support is expected to be located near the integer gate of $17000 / ton. In the near future, we can focus on the number of ADP jobs in July (10,000) in the United States this evening, and more importantly, the guidance of the Fed's interest rate decision.

Shanghai tin main 1909 contract last night after the opening of 134300 yuan / ton, the initial rush to 134930 yuan / ton after the decline, and then until the end of the night Shanghai tin overall showed a downward trend of shock. After the opening of 134280 yuan / ton in early trading this morning, at the beginning of the day, due to the impact of short forces quickly fell to an intraday low of 133530 yuan / ton to maintain low consolidation. Subsequently, during the afternoon trading, short positions reduced long into the market, Shanghai tin rebound to 134200 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 133840 yuan / ton, down 560yuan / ton, down 0.42 per cent. The trading volume was 19030, an increase of 3014. The position was 25616 hands, an increase of 334hands. Today, Shanghai tin closed with a small shade line, with the upper shadow line near the 5-20 moving average. It is estimated that the lower support of Shanghai tin is about 133500 yuan / ton, and the upper resistance is about 135600 yuan / ton.

Spot market, today's mainstream trading price of 134000 to 135500 yuan / ton. Today is the last trading day in July, the overall trading atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market is light. Set Yunxi rising water 1200 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud character rising water 600 to 700 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 300 to 400 yuan / ton.

Nickel: nickel opened at US $14310 / tonne today. At the beginning of the day, Lennie fell slightly to US $14270 / ton before rebounding and pulling higher, shaking upward, touching as high as US $14455 / ton to a narrow range of US $14400 / ton. Subsequently, or affected by the upward impact of the US index, the nickel reversed, giving up all its gains before noon, down to the 5-day moving average to get support, a small rebound up to a narrow range of shocks near the daily average, as of 16-15, reported at $14370 per ton. The nickel is temporarily closed at the Xiaoyang line, standing completely above the 5-day moving average, and paying attention to the resistance of the 10-day moving average above 14400 US dollars / ton in the evening. The market awaits the Fed's decision to negotiate interest rates in the evening. The evening data looked at the euro zone unemployment rate in June and the initial annual rate of GDP in the second quarter; the number of ADP jobs in the United States in July (10,000).

Shanghai nickel 1910 opened at 112170 yuan / ton today, at the beginning of the day, the center of gravity fluctuated around a narrow range of 112400 yuan / ton, followed by bulls increased positions, Shanghai nickel pull up, touching 113650 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel remained high after rising, concussion in a narrow range of 113150 yuan / ton. At about 14:30, the bulls made a profit and left the market. Shanghai nickel went down, giving back all its gains before noon to 112000 yuan / ton, closing at 112260 yuan / ton, up 360 yuan / ton, or 0.32 percent, compared with the previous trading day. Trading volume decreased by 71000 hands to 831000 hands, and position increased by 11000 hands to 372000 hands. Throughout the day, Shanghai nickel closed at Yang Cross Star, has stood above the 5-day moving average, on the shadow line to explore the 10-day moving average, Shanghai nickel is expected to run in the evening 5 / 10 moving average range concussion.

SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 111700 to 113700 yuan / ton. Russian nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 discount about 100 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday continued to be slightly narrowed. Russian nickel than Shanghai nickel 1909 discount 400-300 yuan / ton. Compared with the Shanghai nickel 1908 contract, Jinchuan nickel generally reported a water rise of 1700 yuan to 1900 yuan / ton, which is slightly narrower than that of the Shanghai nickel 1908 contract. Jinchuan than Shanghai nickel 1909 contract generally reported a water rise of 1700 yuan / ton. Early trading hours, nickel prices around the daily average weak finishing, but downstream fear of high procurement, traders due to low-price sources difficult to close, trading is also light. In the second trading session, nickel prices continued to rise, spot trading continued in the morning mood, wait-and-see. In the near future, Russian nickel and Jinchuan nickel can be circulated to tighten the source of goods, resulting in a strong willingness of the holder to lift the water. The mainstream transaction is 112100 to 114000 yuan / ton. Afternoon nickel prices after high volatility to return to the beginning of the market, but for spot trading stimulus is limited, the day trading is not as active as yesterday, the mainstream transaction at 111900 to 113800 yuan / ton.

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