[SMM analysis] New energy vehicles and 5G industries are booming. How much is it driving copper consumption?

SMM, July 29 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

In recent years, the new energy vehicle industry is basically in the growth rate of more than 50% compared with the previous year. Now the new energy vehicles are gradually getting rid of the dependence on the policy, especially after the country five to six countries, the market demand for new energy vehicles is further increasing, at the same time, the supporting facilities charging pile is also following up the development. At the same time, in 2019, China 5G walked in the forefront of the world, rapid development, the rapid layout of related industries. The market has high hopes for new energy vehicles and the 5G industry, so what is the performance of copper consumption?

How do new energy vehicles and charging piles drive copper consumption?

It is understood that the average copper consumption of new energy vehicles is about 55kg/, about 2 to 3 times that of traditional vehicles, and produced 577000 units in the first half of 2019, consuming about 32000 tons of copper. At a 50 per cent year-on-year growth rate, new energy vehicles will consume only about 100000 tons of copper next year, and the net increase in copper consumption will be limited, given its replacement for traditional cars.

Another large terminal, supporting facilities, charging piles, is expected to deploy 119 million-136 million public charging piles and household charging piles worldwide by 2030. According to the copper consumption of DC fast charging piles (25kg/) and household charging piles (2kg/), the annual copper consumption is 60, 000 tons.

It is estimated that the annual copper consumption is nearly 60,000 tons (regardless of the demand for the reconstruction and expansion of underground lines involved). If the charging pile is dense, it will promote the transformation of underground lines, copper consumption is relatively large, the performance is more optimistic, but it is difficult to see this phenomenon in the short term.

What about the copper consumption of the 5G industry, which has been vigorously developed this year?

For the rapid development of 5G related industries in 2019, the main copper consumption related industries are: macro base station, micro base station, urban data room, electronic products and so on.

However, for example, macro base stations and data rooms, etc., the market estimates that its investment is about 10 million-20 million / unit, driving more consumption such as steel and cement, as well as a larger amount of optical fiber, which does not consume copper, and less real copper consumption, including power lines, etc., the copper consumption of wires is also only a small amount, and there is no significant increase.

Another plate, micro-base station consumption of about 12kg/, 2019 is expected to establish more than 10,000 base stations, a total consumption of about 120 tons of copper, is expected to be more than one million base stations by 2024, only 12000 tons of copper in 5 years.

With the construction of 5G base station, the demand of related equipment for copper clad laminate has increased greatly, and the demand for electrolytic copper foil has increased greatly, but the annual output of domestic Calendering copper foil and electrolytic copper foil does not exceed 500000 tons. According to the electrolytic copper foil: Calendering copper foil = 7:3, even if the electrolytic copper foil increases by 20%, the copper consumption increases by no more than 80, 000 tons.

To sum up, this year's rapid development of new energy vehicles and 5G industry has a certain pulling effect on terminal copper consumption, but the whole is limited.