7.29 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Disk surface: Friday, the main aluminum with the United States Index fluctuations, early opened at US $1825 / ton, briefly horizontal after the shock down, the lowest reached US $1794 / ton, the end of the day rose slightly to close at US $1806.5 / ton, the Japanese K line closed a long shadow line in the shade line, down US $20 / ton, down 1.09%; The 1909 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company rose 13950 yuan / ton after opening on Friday morning, followed by a downward shock, which closed at 13880 yuan / ton at night, down 30 yuan / ton from the opening of the day.

Macro: overseas, the United States recently released good economic data, the United States in the second quarter of the actual GDP annualized quarterly rate announced the initial value of 2.1%, expected 1.8%, the previous value of 3.1%; the second quarter of the United States consumer spending annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, expected 4%, the previous value of 0.9%. Domestically, the annual profit rate of China's industrial enterprises above scale in June was-1.3%, compared with the previous value of 1.1%. The decline in industrial profits in the first half of the year was mainly affected by crude oil, automobile, steel and other industries. Building materials, electricity and electrical machinery and other industries contribute to the new profits; Liu Youbin, spokesman for the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, revealed at a regular news conference on the 26th that the Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to classify enterprises that have reached ultra-low emissions as Grade A in an all-round way. Such enterprises do not need to take emission reduction measures such as production restrictions or suspensions when dealing with heavy pollution this winter.

Fundamentals: cost side, domestic side, June 2019 Chinese bauxite imports 18.606 million tons, a sharp increase of 91.65%, Guinea, Australia, Indonesia month-on-month increment of a total of 9.0324 million tons; Friday SMM alumina average price of 25.50 yuan / ton, compared with the previous Friday 22 yuan / ton, the decline continued to converge, the whole week market transactions are relatively cold, activity is not high. Overseas, Hydro CFO expects capacity at the Alunorte alumina plant to return to 95 per cent by 2020 and has now returned to 80 per cent to 85 per cent; Rusal produced 938000 tons of aluminium in the second quarter, up 1 per cent from the previous quarter, and 1.918 million tons of alumina, down 0.7 per cent from the previous quarter.

Spot: Friday morning in Shanghai Wuxi spot transaction price between 13930-13940 yuan / ton, flat water-up 10 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton, 10: 30 after the aluminum decline, the market price gradually concentrated in 13900000-13920 yuan / ton, flat water on the plate-up 20 yuan / ton, Hangzhou area price in 13940-13960 yuan / ton, the market price gradually concentrated in 1390013920 yuan / ton, and the price in Hangzhou area was between 13940 and 13960 yuan / tonn. the spot price between Wuxi and Wuxi on Friday morning was between 13930 yuan / ton and 13940 yuan / ton, and the price in Hangzhou was between 13940 and 13960 yuan / ton. Aluminum prices have risen for two days in a row, and the market is still active because of the receipt of goods by a large company in the morning, but with the suspension of its receipt, trading between traders began to show a stalemate. As a result of the price rebound, the holder shipment is very active and the middleman is willing to accept the goods convergence, the market shows more and less. Downstream due to a few days ago some of the stock, superimposed Friday fear of high sentiment is obvious, did not show signs of weekend stock. The overall deal in East China on Friday was fine.

Summary: at present, under the expectation of accelerating the storage market brought about by consumption in the peak season in September, the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry have been repaired, but not from the sharp rise in absolute prices, but from the profit flow from the alumina link to the electrolytic aluminum link. At present, the overall supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum is relatively limited. It is expected that the short-term aluminum will maintain a slightly strong trend of concussion, and the callback can be arranged in the position of 13500 to 13800 yuan / ton. Structurally, it pays attention to the positive set of 09-12 contract to buy short and long-distance contract; Internal and external arbitrage positions are not recommended for new opening, and do not have strong logical support for the time being.

(SMM Li Hao 021 5166 6863)