Summary of the lead morning meeting:
Macro:
It is reported that US GDP growth slowed to 2.1 per cent in the second quarter, higher than expected 1.8 per cent, thanks to better-than-expected consumer spending, but weak business investment and exports highlighted risks or supported the Fed's rate cut this week.
The Russian central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 per cent, in line with expectations, and said it could move to a neutral policy in the first half of 2020.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above scale nationwide totaled 2.984 trillion yuan, down 2.4 percent from the same period last year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the period from January to May; in June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above scale reached 601.92 billion yuan, down 3.1 percent from the same period last year, and 1.1 percent in May compared with the same period last year.
Recent attention: the leaders of China and the United States will meet in Shanghai, China, from 30 to 31 July to hold the 12th round of Sino-US high-level economic and trade consultations on the basis of equality and mutual respect.
Fundamentals:
Last week, spot lead prices continued to rise, terminal consumption improved slightly, but the purchase of storage enterprises is still more cautious, there is no plan to significantly improve the start-up rate, the overall transaction of the market is general; in terms of primary lead, refineries follow the pace of lead price rise, actively adjust discount shipment, but after a few days, refinery inventory pressure decreased, as of Friday, refinery bulk order mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead price discount 150 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton quotation; The holder of the trade market is also actively quoting and shipping, but the absolute price is limited compared with the quotation of the refinery bulk order, so the holder adjusts the discount shipment, but the transaction situation in the trade market is extremely depressed. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic lead ordinary brand is from 70 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton to 1908 contract discount of 70 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton. In the aspect of recycled lead, with the fluctuation of lead price, the production profit of refinery is more optimistic, but the supply of reduced lead market is becoming more and more tight due to the influence of environmental protection, and the reclaimed refined lead paste shows signs of narrowing. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of recycled refined lead is 150 yuan / ton to 250yuan / ton of SMM1# lead average price.
In addition, last week, the total social inventory of lead ingots in the five places dropped by more than 1,000 tons to 38300 tons.
Lead price:
The high level of lead fell back, the upward momentum was blocked, but the upward trend did not change, the short-term may still be repeated, short-term attention to the flow of funds within the day; the high pressure of lead in Shanghai is prominent, the short-term pressure to go strong, although the recent fundamentals have improved slightly, but the current market logic is following the external market, the later opportunity can pay attention to the market after getting rid of the external disturbance;
The price of SMM1# lead is expected to fall by 100 to 150 yuan per ton today.
