[SMM analysis] imported copper into Hong Kong to reduce copper bonded area inventory continues to decline

Published: Jul 26, 2019 19:58

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Since May 10, copper stocks in the bonded area have been reduced for 12 weeks in a row. As of today, there has been a cumulative reduction of 190500 tons, compared with 44200 tons after the Spring Festival. However, the domestic and foreign price ratio of copper this year did not give too many customs declaration opportunities for imported copper, but the bonded area inventory continued to decline rapidly, and there was a clear mismatch in the line chart.

SMM7 26 June news:

Copper stocks in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone fell by 6500 tons to 397500 tons on Friday compared with Friday, according to SMM research. Since May 10, copper stocks in the bonded area have been reduced for 12 weeks in a row. As of today, there has been a cumulative reduction of 190500 tons, compared with 44200 tons after the Spring Festival.

Generally speaking, the import price ratio is inversely proportional to the bonded area inventory. When the internal and external price ratio is strong, stimulate the market import demand, the increase of copper import customs declaration leads to the increase of bonded area inventory outflow, inventory decline. However, the price comparison of copper inside and outside this year did not give too many customs declaration opportunities for imported copper, but the inventory in the bonded area continued to decline rapidly, and the line chart showed a clear mismatch.

According to SMM, the decline in copper stocks in the bonded area is due to a reduction in imported copper into the warehouse. Us dollar copper imports fell by more than 10% from January to May this year due to the decline of financing attributes and the impact of individual enterprises. Therefore, the continued rapid decline in bonded area inventory is mainly due to the decrease in the supply of electrolytic copper to Hong Kong, rather than the increase in import declaration volume. In addition, the increase in maintenance of overseas smelters this year, including weak domestic demand, is also one of the reasons for the decrease in electrolytic copper imports this year.

(SMM Wei Xue)

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