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SMM Evening Comments (Jul 26)
Jul 26,2019 19:04CST
price review forecast
SHFE nonferrous metals ended mixed on Jul 26

SHANGHAI, Jul 26 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals ended mixed as aluminium grew 0.22%, tin advanced 0.1%, lead climbed 0.48%, while nickel lost 1.17%, zinc fell 0.26%, and copper edged down. 

The ferrous complex traded higher as iron ore rallied 3.42%, rebar gained 0.56%, and hot-rolled coil settled flat. 

Copper: Prices of copper remained under pressure from a high US dollar as the most-active SHFE September contract failed to exceed 47,120 yuan/mt and closed 0.02% lower on the day at 47,050 yuan/mt, after it slid to an intraday low of 46,930 yuan/mt, nearly below the Bollinger middle band. Optimistic results from the revived trade talks between the US and China next week could give some support to prices. Open interests in the September contract lost 3,138 lots to 243,000 lots today. With resistance from the five-day moving average and bearish signals from technical indicators, the contract is likely to test support from 47,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE September contract retreated after climbed to a high of 13,950 yuan/mt, and closed at an intraday low of 13,875 yuan/mt, still up 0.22% on the day. Open interests nudged up 104 lots even as longs covered their positions amid a lack of confidence. As fundamentals remained weak, the contract is expected to extend a rangebound trend with limited upward room next week. 

Zinc: The most-active SHFE September contract traded below the Bollinger middle band with limited support from the spot market. It hovered around the 19,200 yuan/mt level before a rally in LME zinc buoyed it to close at 19,250 yuan/mt, down 0.26% on the day. Pressure from the Bollinger middle band will be monitored tonight as market expectations of greater near-term supplies remain strong. 

Nickel: The most-active SHFE October contract regained some overnight losses as loaded-up longs pushed it to highs around 111,550 yuan/mt at noon, before it closed the trading day at 111,240 yuan/mt, down 1.17%. With pressure from the five- and 10- day moving averages, the contract is expected to hover above the 110,000 yuan/mt level tonight. 

Lead: Upward momentum in the most-liquid SHFE September contract wakened as prices came off from highs to a low of 16,760 yuan/mt, ending up 0.48% at 16,765 yuan/mt, after longs booked profits from recent gains. Growth in the five-day moving average also slowed. Tonight, the contract is expected to remain at highs and track London lead prices. 

Tin: The most-liquid SHFE September contract rallied from an intraday low of 134,330 yuan/mt in early trades, hitting a high of 135,650 yuan/mt and settling up 0.1% at 135,300 yuan/mt. It remained in a rangebound trend, around the 20-day moving average. Resistance is expected from 136,000 yuan/mt with support at 134,000 yuan/mt in the short term. 

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