[SMM Daily Review] non-ferrous metals rise and fall mutually and wait and see how the lead and nickel stories continue

SMM7 26 news: today's day non-ferrous metals rise and fall mutually, Shanghai aluminum rush down the closing line, the final close up 0.22%, mainly concerned about the cost of alumina dynamics; Shanghai lead is also high down, although the external market rose sharply, the inner market acceptance is poor. Shanghai nickel stabilized and rebounded after four consecutive days of declines, closing down 1.17 per cent at 111240. Copper, zinc and tin have a good trend. In the black system, iron ore rose 3.42% again, to 892.0. The performance of finished steel thread and hot coil was weak and did not follow the rising trend of iron ore.

Overnight, the ECB left the three major interest rates unchanged and adjusted its forward-looking guidelines, which are expected to remain unchanged or lower until at least the first half of 2020; a highly loose monetary policy position is required for a considerable period of time, if necessary, interest rates will remain at current or lower levels.

The ECB's interest rate decision has not brought a new driving direction to the market. Non-ferrous metals such as copper and zinc basically fluctuate within the original price range, and it will take longer to wait to find the direction. Copper as a whole is in the state of shrinkage at the mine end, but the demand side is not good, and the supply and demand is weak. Zinc belongs to the transformation from excess supply at the mine end to excess refined zinc.

Lead and nickel are storytelling varieties, the story of lead in LME inventory close to a 10-year low, the external market continues to rise, while the domestic spot transaction is not good; as summer battery consumption enters the peak season, the follow-up market is worth paying attention to. The story of nickel is money-driven, the fundamentals are not much better, and the inner disk is dominant. Tin prices have been in a state of consolidation after a sharp fall, and positions have been falling, so you can pay attention to changes in positions.

Black system, iron ore trend is still strong, due to steel plant inventory is low on demand procurement, steel mills have to come out every week to pick up goods, once there is a low price, steel mills still have to sell, so rigid demand drives the support of the ore. Today, the wood obviously does not follow the trend of the ore, the current off-season accumulation stage, the market mood is relatively cautious.

In terms of crude oil, the SC1909 contract rose 0.63% to 444.2. The overall logic of crude oil is in the process of transforming the United States from a big consumer to a big producer and exporter of crude oil. However, there is news today that US shale oil service companies have begun to cut spending, indicating that without the support of high oil prices, shale oil development may be suspended, which is also an uncertain factor in the supply of crude oil in the United States. The overall US WTI crude oil belongs to the shock consolidation stage after the decline, and there is no obvious driving direction.

SMM analyst's brief comment on July 26th

Copper: this morning, Shanghai Copper main contract 1909 opened at 46980 yuan / ton, opened at the lowest position of 46930 yuan / ton during the day of exploration, followed by short positions, and continued to rise after the disk was low. Until the afternoon, the disk has been maintained at 46970 to 47040 yuan / ton. After the opening of afternoon trading, the market briefly rushed to the highest level of 47120 yuan / ton in the day. The market lacked confidence in the high. After a small probe, it fell back. At the end of the day, it closed at 47050 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton, and closed at 47050 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton, the market lacks confidence in the high level, and after a small probe, it fell back, closing at 47050 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton at the end of the day. It was down 0.02%. Today, the position of Shanghai Copper's main contract decreased by 3138 hands to 243000, the trading volume increased by 8922 hands to 107000 hands, the Shanghai Copper Index's position volume decreased by 4220 hands to 570000 hands today, and the trading volume increased by 3320 hands to 195000 hands. At present, Shanghai Copper is bearing pressure on the strong high level of the US dollar, and it is difficult to have the impulse to do so, and the trend of the US dollar rose strongly to 97.9 in the afternoon, as the market generally believes that the Fed will not adopt a large-scale easing monetary policy, and the expectation of a 50 basis point cut in interest rates has basically been digested. The dollar is at a high level and copper prices continue to be under pressure. At the same time, the market is waiting for next week's Sino-US trade talks to test whether it can further boost copper prices. Today, Shanghai copper continued to close the shade, the next shadow line nearly broke the Brin middle rail, the upper pressure 5-day moving average, technical indicators continue to be negative to the copper market. In the evening, wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai Copper can stand at the 47000 yuan / ton gate.

Zinc: the main 1909 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 19160 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, and reached 19215 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, then fell back after a narrow concussion of 19200 yuan / ton, and was boosted by the external market in the afternoon. Short position reduction, Shanghai zinc operation center of gravity moved up to above the daily average, closed down 19250 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton, down 0.26%, trading volume increased 38748 hands to 306000 hands, position decreased 2224 hands to 263000 hands. Within the day, Shanghai zinc harvest cross star, the overall jump off the middle track operation, the spot market near the end of the month traders trading light, downstream consumption is still weak, failed to give some support to zinc prices, superimposed this week domestic refineries arrival is still less, the follow-up market is still strong expectations for cumulative storage, Shanghai zinc support or more limited, pay attention to the upper Bolindao middle rail suppression efforts at night.

Nickel: Shanghai nickel 1910 opened today at 109870 yuan / ton, before noon, bulls increased positions, Shanghai nickel shock upward to 111600 yuan / ton first line pressure, the center of gravity around 111400 yuan / ton shock finishing. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel weakened slightly and its center of gravity shifted downward, fluctuating in a narrow range at 111000 yuan per ton, closing at 111240 yuan per ton, down 1320 yuan per ton, or 1.17 percent, from the previous day's settlement price. Position volume decreased by 7200 hands to 336000 hands, and trading volume by 242000 hands to 1.321 million hands. Throughout the day, the Shanghai nickel 1910 contract closed at the Xiaoyang line, above the 5, 10-day moving average cross pressure, Shanghai nickel is expected to bear pressure of 112000 yuan / ton line, in the 110000 yuan / ton pass above the range of concussion operation.

Today, we focus on the initial value of the actual quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter and the quarterly rate of actual personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter.

In the process of updating.

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