镍价判断：经历了上半周的自然回调后镍价目前进入高位震荡状态，单边短线交易以高抛低吸为主；沪伦比值当前处于偏低位，进一步多伦空沪存在风险，但考虑到伦镍库存的下降和短期内国内的累库，可以继续等待沪伦比值再度扩大时潜在的套利机会。基本面方面，镍自身现货不缺，不锈钢也暂未出现明显的消费改善迹象，短期行情下资金面的动态、未来印尼镍铁的回国情况更加值得关注。
Macro: the initial value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in July was 50.0, a new low in September 2009, expected to be 51.0, with a previous value of 50.6. Some people think that the data show that the US economy has a weak start to the third quarter. According to a report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, US crude oil stocks fell much more than expected last week, while US crude oil production also fell sharply. Analysts believe that related to the storm, the real support for oil prices is the Persian Gulf tensions, oil prices may have reached the bottom. In June, the United States sold 631000 new homes, which are expected to be 668000, compared with a previous value of 689000. In July, manufacturing PMI in the euro zone recorded its lowest level in six years, with an initial value of 46.4, an expected value of 47.666, and a bleak economic outlook. Attention
Nickel spot: July 24 SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 111500 to 113500 yuan / ton. Russian nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 sticker 300-stick about 200 yuan / ton, basically the same as the previous day. Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 contract generally reported a water rise of 1500 to 1700 yuan / ton, which continues to expand from the previous day. However, in the past two days, the transaction of discount 350-discount 300 is relatively active. Although compared with yesterday's same trading session fell, but the downstream basically no response, the transaction is not as positive as the previous day. Nickel prices fell to around 111200 in the second trading session, with a slight improvement in trading, but the overall picture was not optimistic. Recently, traders replenish Jinchuan nickel more actively than downstream, and the downstream is mainly wait-and-see.
Stainless steel: July 24 Wuxi 304 cold rolled coil price 15000 15100 yuan / ton, 304 hot rolled coil price 14350 14450 yuan / ton. 300 series stainless steel prices fell slightly this week, the current market price range is relatively large, some traders said that the current downstream demand is not good, and due to the shortage of funds at the end of the month, some businesses choose to let profit delivery, while downstream buyers buy on demand, the future stainless steel prices are bearish.
Stocks: 145100 tons of nickel bullion on 24 July, 1614 tons less than 23 July.
