Minutes of SMM Bronze Morning meeting on July 25
[7.25 SMM copper morning meeting minutes] Macro: 1) the White House confirmed that Trade Representative Lettershitzer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will travel to China for economic and trade talks next week. Mnuchin said a strong dollar is good for the U. S. economy in the long run. 2) the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in July was 50, the lowest since September 2009, and the US dollar fell sharply after the figures were announced. 3) the initial value of manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in July was the lowest since December 2012. Germany's manufacturing PMI hit a seven-year low in July, and the growth outlook for Europe's largest economy is deteriorating. The decline in the euro intensified. Fundamentals: 1) scrap copper: yesterday refined scrap price difference of 1689 yuan / ton. Overall consumption in the end market is weak, and the recent market has focused on the Fed rate cut at the end of the month and the progress of next week's Sino-US trade negotiations to determine the impact on copper futures prices. The recent electrolytic copper and scrap copper market transactions are cautious, wait-and-see mood is strong. 2) imported copper: yesterday the LME0-3 discount was US $20.25 / ton, and the import loss was about 200yuan / ton. Yesterday, there were signs of a decline in market demand, traders maintained the previous high quotation, there is a willingness to push the price, but it is generally difficult to close a deal, the buyer and the buyer show a slight stalemate, and the market transaction is reduced. 3) stocks: LME copper stocks increased by 1625 tons to 295000 tons on July 24, while copper stocks in the previous period decreased by 1727 tons to 61569 tons. 4) spot: spot due to the current market price rose again above 47000, high prices to curb the market buying sentiment, but due to the recent existence of long single delivery, the holder is also unwilling to lower the offer delivery, the overall trading sentiment will continue to stalemate. It is expected that the spot water will rise by 10 yuan to 70 yuan per ton today. Copper prices and forecasts: last night Luntong broke through the 6010 level, Shanghai copper reached a high of 47160 yuan / ton, mainly due to the release of the US July Markit manufacturing PMI data and June after the new housing sales data were lower than expected, the US dollar fell to the 97.26th level, copper prices rebounded slightly. At present, due to the poor performance of economic data from Europe, the market is worried about the global economy, the market is in a strong mood of risk aversion, and even if copper prices are buoyed by news in the short term, long-term macroeconomic weakness still makes copper prices less impulsive. In terms of crude oil, after the United States announced a sharp decline in EIA crude oil stocks last night, the oil price hit the 57.4 mark in the short term, and then fell back again, reflecting the fact that the market's concern about weak global demand exceeded geopolitical contradictions and the sharp drop in inventories supported oil prices, forming negative news on copper prices. At present, Shanghai copper cross star, the technical side of multiple indicators show a negative trend. It is estimated that the amount of London copper is US $5950 / ton today and that of Shanghai Copper is 46800 / ton and 47200 yuan / ton.
(SMM Kwong Tze-si)
