[agency Review] Macro-stability supports short-term zinc prices, but the pattern of weak zinc prices in the medium term does not change.-Shanghai Metals Market

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[agency Review] Macro-stability supports short-term zinc prices, but the pattern of weak zinc prices in the medium term does not change.

Translation 09:20:08AM Jul 25, 2019 Source:Wenhua Finance and Economics
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM Network News:

Information analysis:

(1) the shock differentiation of non-ferrous plates yesterday, the price of zinc at home and abroad stabilized and rebounded slightly. In addition, yesterday, Shanghai zinc futures small Back structure maintained; Shanghai zinc futures position further reduced by more than 3, 000 hands to 50.2 million hands, capital is still cautious.

(2) LME zinc stocks fell 1025 tons to 76775 tons yesterday, while LME zinc write-off warehouse receipts rose to 32000 tons, accounting for 41.68 per cent of inventories. Zinc warehouse receipt stocks rose slightly by 130T to 39065 tonnes yesterday.

(4) on July 23, the LME zinc liter discount (0-3) is-5 US dollars / ton, and the LME zinc futures price has been converted to Contango structure in recent days.

(5) the spot quotation of domestic zinc was slightly reduced yesterday. Shanghai 0 # ordinary brand on the Shanghai zinc 08 contract reported 70 to 80 yuan / ton, the market continues to be less willing to purchase, the transaction is weak; Tianjin to the Shanghai market to discount 20 yuan / ton, the transaction continues to be light; Guangdong to the Shanghai market discount slightly narrowed to 130 yuan / ton, the market trading is still deadlocked, the transaction has not improved.

Logic: in the medium term, the certainty of the continuation of the high level of domestic zinc supply is strong, and the seasonal weakness of consumption is prominent. This week, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory began to rise slightly, and the inventory is expected to accumulate further in the later period. At present, the Shanghai zinc futures price maintains the small BACK structure, and the LME zinc futures price changes to the Contango structure again. The expectation that the zinc fundamental is weak is maintained, and the short-term zinc market capital is on the cautious side. Therefore, although the macro level has stabilized in the near future, it may be difficult to change the weak pattern of zinc prices in the medium term.

Operation advice: empty single holding; buy copper and sell zinc.

Risk factors: macro mood changes significantly, domestic zinc supply is not as expected.

Key Words:  Macro  zinc price  inventory 

[agency Review] Macro-stability supports short-term zinc prices, but the pattern of weak zinc prices in the medium term does not change.

Translation 09:20:08AM Jul 25, 2019 Source:Wenhua Finance and Economics
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM Network News:

Information analysis:

(1) the shock differentiation of non-ferrous plates yesterday, the price of zinc at home and abroad stabilized and rebounded slightly. In addition, yesterday, Shanghai zinc futures small Back structure maintained; Shanghai zinc futures position further reduced by more than 3, 000 hands to 50.2 million hands, capital is still cautious.

(2) LME zinc stocks fell 1025 tons to 76775 tons yesterday, while LME zinc write-off warehouse receipts rose to 32000 tons, accounting for 41.68 per cent of inventories. Zinc warehouse receipt stocks rose slightly by 130T to 39065 tonnes yesterday.

(4) on July 23, the LME zinc liter discount (0-3) is-5 US dollars / ton, and the LME zinc futures price has been converted to Contango structure in recent days.

(5) the spot quotation of domestic zinc was slightly reduced yesterday. Shanghai 0 # ordinary brand on the Shanghai zinc 08 contract reported 70 to 80 yuan / ton, the market continues to be less willing to purchase, the transaction is weak; Tianjin to the Shanghai market to discount 20 yuan / ton, the transaction continues to be light; Guangdong to the Shanghai market discount slightly narrowed to 130 yuan / ton, the market trading is still deadlocked, the transaction has not improved.

Logic: in the medium term, the certainty of the continuation of the high level of domestic zinc supply is strong, and the seasonal weakness of consumption is prominent. This week, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory began to rise slightly, and the inventory is expected to accumulate further in the later period. At present, the Shanghai zinc futures price maintains the small BACK structure, and the LME zinc futures price changes to the Contango structure again. The expectation that the zinc fundamental is weak is maintained, and the short-term zinc market capital is on the cautious side. Therefore, although the macro level has stabilized in the near future, it may be difficult to change the weak pattern of zinc prices in the medium term.

Operation advice: empty single holding; buy copper and sell zinc.

Risk factors: macro mood changes significantly, domestic zinc supply is not as expected.

Key Words:  Macro  zinc price  inventory