7.24 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting
Market surface: overnight inside and outside the market metal rise and fall mutually, Shanghai aluminum main company 1909 contract opened at 13765 yuan / ton at night, below stopped 13735 yuan / ton after a small recovery, closed at 13770 yuan / ton, down 55 yuan / ton from the opening of the day. London Aluminum opened at $1816 a tonne for the day and closed at $1821 at night. The daily K line closed a small positive line, up $7.50 / ton, or 0.41%, dominated by short positions.
Macro: (1) the US finger hit its highest level since June 18 and closed at 97.689 points yesterday, mainly because Trump reached an agreement with Congress on the US budget and debt ceiling, which plans to increase fiscal spending by hundreds of billions of dollars. and saved Washington from a fiscal crisis for more than two years; (2) the dust of the election of a new British prime minister was settled, and former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson was elected, but his tendency towards "hard Brexit" was more obvious; (3) yesterday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying said: China has always been firmly opposed to unilateral sanctions and so-called "long-arm jurisdiction" imposed by the United States, and opposes the bullying acts of the United States wantonly cracking down on Chinese enterprises in accordance with its domestic laws. The Chinese side firmly opposes US sanctions against China's Zhuhai Zhenrong Company and business executives. (4) this year, the NDRC has approved nearly 40 infrastructure projects, with a total investment of more than 950 billion yuan. In terms of the type of projects, most of them are concentrated in urban tracks, airport expansion, coal mines, and so on. (5) in the first half of this year, investment in railways, highways, water transportation and civil aviation totaled 1.3698 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8 percent over the same period last year. (6) China exported 5.15 million air conditioners in June, an increase of 0.2% over the same period last year. From January to June, China exported a total of 37.31 million air conditioners, down 7.2% from the same period last year.
Fundamentals: cost side, yesterday SMM area weighted alumina offer remained stable compared with the previous day. On the demand side, for aluminum bars, the processing fees for aluminum bars in Baotou, Shandong and Wuxi have been reduced by 30 to 100 yuan per ton, while the processing fees for aluminum bars in Guangdong have not changed significantly or even slightly increased in the same period. The main reason is that Guangdong is a concentrated place of aluminum profile factories, consumption is weaker than in the north, and the price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai for aluminum ingots has been hanging upside down since last week, stimulating an increase in local aluminum bar processing fees. In terms of recycled aluminum, the price of recycled aluminum has stabilized in the near future, and the supply of raw aluminum has been reduced, mainly due to the short-term weakness of the recycled aluminum industry, and the hot weather superimposed environmental protection strict investigation has led to the purchase of waste aluminum yard and the reduction of the amount of broken aluminum. And the approval process of imported waste aluminum is not timely, and the actual amount of raw aluminum imported has been reduced.
Spot: the transaction price between Shanghai and Wuxi on Tuesday morning is between 13790 and 13800 yuan / ton, and the price is near 10 yuan / ton-Pingshui, which is nearly 50 yuan / ton lower than that of the previous day. The transaction price in the second trading stage is concentrated around 13780 to 13790 yuan / ton, but the transaction activity in the later stage is much lower than that in the morning. Hangzhou aluminum ingot transaction price is between 13790 and 13810 yuan / ton. In the morning, a large household in East China to maintain the pace of receiving goods, the holder shipment is OK, due to the price drop shipping middlemen and traders to receive goods is very active, buyers and sellers active trading, but the transaction price is more stalemate, the fluctuation range is small. Due to the fall in aluminum prices, downstream delivery is OK, but due to some replenishment on Monday, there was no significant increase in purchasing volume today. Overall, East China had a better deal on Tuesday.
Summary: the early performance of aluminum prices is mainly affected by macro US monetary policy, but aluminum consumption has entered the off-season, and the cost side is still in the downward stage, and short-term fundamentals are under pressure. Based on the expectation of accelerating storage in the peak season in September, the electrolytic aluminum industry should give profits, but the profits of the industrial chain have been given away from the cost of alumina, rather than the rise in the absolute price of electrolytic aluminum, so it is not recommended to continue to catch up. It is recommended that the callback can be in 13500 to 13800 yuan / ton position waiting for the layout of multiple orders, structural attention to 0912 contracts to buy near and far, internal and external positive positions continue to hold, but do not recommend new opening.
(SMM Li Hao 021 5166 6863)