[SMM Daily Review] Nonferrous metals generally close down and wait for more drivers.

SMM7 23 month news: today's day non-ferrous metals generally closed down, the current market is temporarily lack of fundamental factors driven, the disk is relatively light. Shanghai nickel led the decline in non-ferrous metals today, down 2.15 per cent to 112980; Shanghai aluminium fell 1.15 per cent to 13750; and Shanghai copper closed down 1.05 per cent at 47300. After the nickel rush fell back, there was a lack of a new "leader" in the market, copper and aluminum fell back slightly weak, and the news on Monday was dominated by wait-and-see funds. In the black system, the intraday thrust fell, iron ore closed down 1.73% to 880, and thread hot coil closed down slightly, to 3941 and 3866, respectively. the iron ore closed down 1.73% to 880, and the thread hot coil closed down slightly, to 3941 and 3866, respectively. (unit: yuan / ton)

Britain's new prime minister will be announced at 18:00 Beijing time on Tuesday (July 23). If, as expected, Boris Johnson will be elected Conservative Party leader and become the new prime minister, this will be the latest major factor that can stimulate financial markets. Fed officials are entering a period of silence ahead of the meeting, and the European Central Bank is about to announce its latest monetary policy on Thursday night, all of which are important references for markets to wait and see. If the ECB were to ease ahead of the Fed, the euro would fall sharply and the corresponding dollar would be boosted, thereby suppressing metal prices.

Shanghai aluminum, aluminum consumption into the off-season, the cost is still in the downward stage, short-term fundamentals under pressure. SMM alumina area weighted offer 2527 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton compared with Friday.

Shanghai lead rush fell back, the holder actively shipped, and some of the quoted price discount expanded; renewable lead refinery profits are considerable, tax renewable lead mainstream transaction price expanded to SMM1# lead average price discount increased; and downstream demand is limited, coupled with the re-expansion of recycled refined lead discount, bulk market transactions continue to be weak.

Shanghai zinc, the domestic three places under the increase in social inventory, Shanghai zinc fundamentals support is relatively weak, downstream to maintain on-demand procurement, bearish sentiment is stronger.

In terms of black lines, black varieties showed a trend of pullback during the day. Iron ore prices fell 1.73% to close at 880, thread closed down 0.56% at 3941, and hot coil closed down 0.36% at 3866. The latest developments show that the supply side of iron ore is still tight in the short term.

According to SMM tracking data, a total of 87 ships arrived at China's major ports from 7.14 to 7.20, with an estimated arrival volume of 11.53 million tons, a decrease of 5.99 million tons compared with the previous period. The arrival of goods from Tangshan and Tangshan ports has dropped significantly, and the recent expected arrival is still not optimistic; the port arrival in Shandong has increased and decreased. During the period, Australian exports are expected to drop by 840000 tons to 13.34 million tons, Brazil is expected to increase by 360000 tons to 6.05 million tons, and Brazilian iron ore production and transportation continues to resume. Vale (Vale) released its second-quarter production and sales report yesterday. In the first half of 2019, Vale iron ore sales totaled 138 million tons. According to its adjusted target volume of 3.07-332 million tons, Vale is still expected to have 1.69-194 million tons in the second half of the year.

In the last issue of crude oil, the SC1909 contract rose 1.75 per cent to 436.8. British oil tankers have been detained by Iran in the Bay area, causing renewed fears in the Middle East and a rebound in oil prices. In terms of data, focus on the US API inventory data released at 4:30 Beijing time tomorrow, which basically reflects the direction of changes in EIA inventory.

SMM analyst's brief comment on July 23

Copper: today, Shanghai Copper main contract 1909 opened in the morning at 47330 yuan / ton, after the opening of the day, the lowest position of 47260 yuan / ton, the center of gravity basically maintained at 47320 yuan / ton, and then the center of gravity slightly moved up 30 yuan to 47350 yuan / ton until the afternoon; in the afternoon, the center of gravity first maintained stable and then continued to rise to the highest point of the day, 47420 yuan / ton, and then continued to decline, closing at 47300 yuan / ton, down 47330 yuan / ton, down 1.05%. Today, the position of Shanghai Copper's main contract decreased by 2798 hands to 254000 hands, mainly as bulls left the market after the bearish market, trading volume decreased by 188000 hands to 133000 hands; Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by 2818 hands to 576000 hands today, mainly as an increase in forward contract 1910 positions; trading volume decreased by 276000 hands to 247000 hands. At present, the macro market has been waiting for the Fed's policy meeting next week, the expectation of a sharp interest rate cut is weakened, the trend of the US dollar is strong, and the copper price is weak on the way to 97.5. copper prices are under pressure and weak, and the overall position is maintained at 47300 yuan / ton. Today, Shanghai copper closed down slightly, and above has lost Brin's support on the track, KDJ indicators are bearish, and the technical side is lack of guidance on copper prices. In the evening, wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai Copper can hold the 47200 yuan / ton gate.

Lead: within a day, Shanghai lead 1909 contract opened at 16470 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead basically around the daily average narrow range of shock, and the amplitude does not exceed 100 yuan / ton, finally closed at 16455 yuan / ton, down 165 yuan / ton, down 0. 99%, the position increased 1754 hands to 62930 hands. Shanghai lead closed Xiaoyang line, temporarily stabilized, medium-and short-term moving average is still upward trend, and 16400 yuan / ton line there is a platform support, Shanghai lead at night or to the platform as a support, continue the concussion trend.

Zinc: the main 1909 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 19265 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day. Shanghai zinc reached 19350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, but failed to stand back to 19300 yuan / ton near the narrow range of finishing operation, operating range not more than 25 yuan / ton, closing down 19285 yuan / ton, 25 yuan / ton lower than the previous transaction, down 0.13%, trading volume decreased 211000 hands to 239000 hands, position decreased 4486 hands to 261000 hands. During the day, Shanghai zinc closed negative and positive, the overall operation around the 10-day moving average, the increase in domestic social inventory, there is no obvious bright spot on the consumer side, the spot market mostly contributed by traders to the main trading, downstream buying volume is relatively limited, but also confirmed that the current consumer end shows fatigue, short positions within the day to reduce positions under Shanghai zinc upward, indicating that the bulls do not have sufficient confidence, pay attention to the external market guidelines at night.

Tin: Shanghai tin main 1909 contract last night after the opening of 135030 yuan / ton, the initial rush to the night high of 135750 yuan / ton, and then until the end of night trading, Shanghai tin overall maintained a concussive situation. After the opening of $134890 / tonne in early trading this morning, low consolidation was maintained between early trading and midday trading. In the afternoon, Xichong fell back in Shanghai, reached an intraday high of 135600 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 134660 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.34 per cent. The turnover was 14610. The number of positions was 27900, a reduction of 314. Today, the tin center of gravity in Shanghai is stable, closing with the Xiaoyin line, and the solid part is supported by the 5-10-day EMA. It is expected that the tin in Shanghai will support around 132000 yuan / ton, and the upper resistance will be around 137500 yuan / ton.

In the process of updating.

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