SMM News: in the first half of the year, the macro side resonated with the fundamentals, and oil prices rose and fell sharply several times. In the second half of the year, due to the cautious expectation of the macro side, the game between supply and demand will become more intense in the second half of the year, and the fluctuation of oil prices will also intensify. The United States: the effects of the storm receded? The speed of going to the library has slowed recently, and Storm "Barry" has hit the Gulf of Mexico in the United States. The U. S. Security and Environmental Enforcement Agency says oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been cut by 1.11 million barrels a day because of extreme weather. However, compared with previous years, the impact of the storm is relatively short-lived. At present, "Barry" has been downgraded to a tropical depression. Offshore oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico partially resumed on Monday. In addition, some refineries along the Gulf Coast closed to guard against Barry have also been restarted, while other refineries on the path of "Barry" in the tropics continue to operate. The boost to oil prices by factors such as storms is fading. The rise in the centre of gravity of oil prices last week was mainly driven by falling inventories and storms, and after these factors have been gradually digested, the rise in oil prices will slow down. Us crude stocks fell 3.12 million barrels in the week to July 12 from the previous week, but stocks of refined oil, including gasoline, increased, according to the latest data released by EIA. In its short-term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts that global crude oil demand will grow by 1.1 million barrels a day this year. However, the EIA has downgraded its demand growth forecast for six months in a row. Similar adjustments have been made to the OPEC, reflecting a lack of confidence in the macro environment in consumer countries, with which crude oil consumption is closely linked. Every summer is the traditional travel season for American families. Due to more self-driving, the demand for refined oil will reach a small peak, and gasoline stocks will decline for several weeks in a row, forming positive feedback to the crude oil market. The picture shows that the summer change of crude oil inventory in the United States is not over, and there is a certain guarantee on the demand side of crude oil. However, the supply of crude oil in the United States is basically in a steady growth trend, the bottleneck problem of pipeline transportation will also be alleviated in the second half of the year, and the volume of exports will continue to increase. At the same time, the rise in oil prices some time ago is the result of the resonance of a variety of factors, in the good cash, the speed of oil products to the warehouse will slow down.
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