Home / Metal News / Copper / [SMM Review] non-ferrous metals early shock finishing pay attention to their respective fundamental changes
[SMM Review] non-ferrous metals early shock finishing pay attention to their respective fundamental changes
Jul 23,2019 10:14CST
translation
Source:SMM
In early trading, the non-ferrous metal market differentiation, there is no obvious drive or overall direction, pay attention to their respective fundamental changes. Shanghai aluminum prices fell slightly 0.75% to 13805, mainly because the cost side is still in the downward channel. Shanghai zinc rebounded slightly, up 0.13% to 1935, Shanghai copper concussion, now down 0.94% to 47350, Shanghai nickel fell 1.89% to 113320, is currently in a state of rest after a sharp rise.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 22 month news: this morning, non-ferrous metals market differentiation, and there is no obvious drive or overall direction, pay attention to their respective fundamental changes. Shanghai aluminum prices fell slightly 0.75% to 13805, mainly because the cost side is still in the downward channel. Shanghai zinc rebounded slightly, up 0.13% to 1935, Shanghai copper concussion, now down 0.94% to 47350, Shanghai nickel fell 1.89% to 113320, is currently in a state of rest after a sharp rise. (unit: yuan / ton)

Nickel, spot yesterday price pullback, traders small lift water, because the absolute price is high to the downstream boost is limited; stainless steel transaction is general, the market is cold; the current nickel price may be in the normal pullback, pay attention to most of the first capital follow-up situation.

 

On the aluminum side, by the United States finger suppression, Shanghai and London aluminum pullback. The main driver of aluminum is macro, and the poor performance of the global economy will affect the trend of aluminum in the future. Aluminum cost end is still in the downward channel, can not support a large upward walk, spot transactions are light.

On the copper side, the entire supply is still in excess of demand, and more low quotations remain unchanged. At present, consumption downstream is very poor.

Black system into the end, the weekend Tangshan production limit news so that the thread and hot coil jump received support, but after SMM steel estimates, the impact on the overall market is not too big, so the black system did not have a large pull up. For more information, please see [SMM Iron and Steel Analysis: what is the impact of production restriction at the Ecological Congress from 26 to 28? In terms of iron ore, the spot transaction is slightly loosened, and the spot transaction price is between 885 and 897. Tangshan is slightly cautious, with traders in East China receiving goods at a low price, as shipments are not expected to increase this week. The shipment volume of the lower half of Vale was 1.7-195 million tons, which was higher than that of 130 million tons in the first half of the year, and the pressure of shipment was relatively large.

In terms of crude oil, oil prices began to rebound after six consecutive periods, rising 1.14 percent to 433.6 yuan per barrel as of press release. Tensions in the Middle East have been heightened by the seizure of a British oil tanker by the Iranian military in the Gulf over the weekend. But IEA (IEA) officials say the agency does not expect oil prices to rise sharply because global economic growth is slowing and there is a tendency for a surplus in the crude oil market. Moreover, the agency says there are enough emergency energy reserves to deal with tensions in the Middle East.

Technical analysis:

Copper: last night inside and outside the overall performance of the shock downward trend, Shanghai Copper down 47200 clearance, the main contract affected by the long position reduction. In the evening, copper prices weakened as expectations of a sharp Fed rate cut continued to weaken, with the dollar fluctuating at a high around 97.2. At present, the market is weakening expectations of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, adding that the US economy is still performing well compared with the rest of the world, and the dollar is expected to remain high and volatile, and copper prices are under pressure. Fundamentals have not yet pushed up copper prices, and today's economic data is light, copper prices are more likely to continue to fall. Shanghai Copper has basically returned last week's gains, today closed slightly negative, above has lost Brin on the track support, KDJ indicators show negative cross, the technical side of the lack of copper price support. Spot market weakness today, low prices are expected to attract market inquiries, and this week there is still a certain long single trading, market trading sentiment is expected to improve. It is expected that today's London copper 5990 6030 / ton, Shanghai copper 46950 47400 yuan / ton, spot discount 20-liter 50 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: overnight US dollar index rebounded, the metal in the inner plate was almost floating green in the whole line, and Shanghai Aluminum was difficult to move strongly under the situation of low fundamentals. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to run between 13760 and 13860 yuan / ton today. Lun Aluminum is expected to run between 1800 and 1840 US dollars / ton today. The main force is expected to run between 13760 yuan / ton and 13860 yuan / ton, which is expected to run between 1800 and 1840 US dollars / ton today.

Lead: lead since the report on the film, announced into the correction trend, short-term if there is no news stimulus, below look at the 20-day EMA support. Shanghai lead I close the Xiaoyang line, the trend within the day is more critical, if you continue to explore, Shanghai lead graphics basically go bad, Shanghai lead bulls or temporarily leave the market to wait and see.

Zinc: overnight zinc recorded a small positive line, the upper shadow line on the 5-day EMA suppression, the recovery of overseas supply, the gradual expansion of the contango structure, weak fundamental support, Lun zinc return rising kinetic energy is still to be considered, or run in the vicinity of $2390 to $2440 / ton within a day. Overnight Shanghai zinc stop and repair, the overall operation near the 5-day moving average, KDJ index turn downward, indicating that Shanghai zinc back up kinetic energy or relatively limited, domestic three places under the increase of social inventory, Shanghai zinc fundamental support is relatively weak, short position reduction upward, Shanghai zinc action can be more limited, within a day or run at 1900019 500 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic double swallow zinc pair increased by 50% to 90% in August.

Nickel: nickel closed at the negative line, below the 5-day EMA support, today is expected to be 14000 to 14500 U.S. dollars / ton range shock; overnight Shanghai nickel closed at the small negative line, the overall closing below the 5-day moving average, today is expected to Shanghai nickel 110000-113500 yuan / ton; spot price range 112000-115000 yuan / ton.

Tin: support below Lunxi is expected to be around the previous low of $17500 per tonne. It is estimated that the lower support of tin in Shanghai will be around 132000 yuan / ton, and the upper resistance will be around 137500 yuan / ton. Spot market, Shanghai tin main 1909 contract last night to maintain a stable center of gravity, is expected to today's mainstream trading price of 135000 to 136500 yuan / ton.

In the process of updating.

 

Scan QR code and apply to join SMM metal exchange group, please indicate company + name + main business

 

For queries, please contact Frank LIU at liuxiaolei@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn