[SMM Daily Review] Shanghai lead stop 8 Lianyang Nonferrous Metals all fell back

SMM7, 22 July news: Shanghai nickel today fell 3.77% to 113490 yuan per ton, down 3.77%. The bulls' huge profit put pressure on the futures price, while the 08 contract showed signs of changing positions for the month. Led by nickel, non-ferrous metals fell across the board, with copper and lead, once thought to be nickel "successors", falling back, while tin and zinc, which were originally weak, were slightly weaker. In the black system, iron ore led the thread and hot coil, iron ore fell by 1.61%, closing at 885 yuan / ton, 900 yuan / ton is an important line of defense.

Nickel, the star of the past two weeks, has dominated the limelight, but today it is the first time that two nickel giants, Aoyama and Jinchuan, have broken into the Fortune 500.

(excess and position of Shanghai nickel futures in different months)

From the Shanghai nickel trading volume and position structure can be seen, the current futures contract is in the middle of the month, 1910 contract from the trading volume and position volume have exceeded 08 contract, the recent contract due to long positions and transfer positions are in progress, at this time it is easy to profit-taking and a large departure of funds, so it is necessary to prevent unexpectedly large fluctuations in nickel prices.

Spot nickel, Jinchuan Shengshui from 1000 to 1200 to 1400, July and August maintenance of Shanghai goods sold last week, while traders take less goods, mainly rigid demand, high-carbon ferrochromium prices rose due to limited electricity. Downstream demand, stainless steel last week trading is not good.

Tin side, Lunxi Shanghai tin weak shock, Lunxi inventory is still high, the current end of the inventory is slow, the fundamentals are still weak. Ten smelters cut production last month and are expected to continue to decline in the next two months.

At present, the metal market mainly follows the fluctuation of the international environment. There has been a wave of "interest rate cuts" in emerging markets around the world in recent days, boosting risk appetite and most of the metals markets have rebounded. The Bank of Korea, the Bank of India, the Bank of Indonesia, the Bank of South Africa and other central banks have cut interest rates, after Australia, New Zealand and other countries have also cut interest rates. All of this is room for future US interest rate cuts, and the ECB may also launch a new easing policy at 19:45 on Thursday night, but exactly how, in this context, non-ferrous metals are supported.

Because of this, in the context of uncertainty in the environment, the big money will not make a big bet in the non-ferrous metals market. Especially at the end of the year, a lot of funds to complete the semi-annual settlement, is holding the currency to wait and see. Therefore, waiting for the macro environment to further stabilize, it is expected that the strategy of betting after landing will be better.

Black iron ore opened Friday night directly down, with weakness dominating the day's trading. In the high price and positive factors gradually loosened, negative factors gradually accumulated, now is a good time for bulls to make a profit as the market rises. If the iron ore bulls still occupy the initiative of the price for a long time, then they will enter the delivery stage. The game logic of both sides is the problem of how to return the current price difference, not the logic of the current shortage of iron ore supply.

In the last issue of crude oil, the SC1909 contract rose 1.4 per cent to 434.7. Although US sentiment towards Iran has eased, British oil tankers have been detained by Iran in the Bay area, causing renewed fears in the Middle East and a rebound in oil prices.

SMM analyst's brief comment on July 22

Copper: today, Shanghai Copper main contract 1909 opened in the morning at 47640 yuan / ton, immediately after the opening of the day to the highest level of 47830 yuan / ton, and then the center of gravity fell to 47670 yuan / ton near the shock finishing, until the afternoon, the overall afternoon session showed a volatile downward trend, bulls actively reduced positions, the disk fell to the lowest level of 47380 yuan / ton, closing at 47410 yuan / ton, down 47640 yuan / ton, down 0.21%. Today, the position of Shanghai Copper's main contract decreased by 41000 hands to 257000 hands, and the trading volume decreased by 54000 hands to 322000 hands. The Shanghai Copper Index fell 48000 hands to 573000 hands today, while trading volume fell 88000 hands to 524000 hands. Today, Shanghai copper in the non-ferrous plate capital outflow of 914 million, mainly due to the gradual digestion of market optimism, bulls have withdrawn funds. At present, Shanghai copper performance for the shock correction situation, mainly due to the market for the United States sharply reduced interest rate expectations weakened, the dollar returned to high, metal pressure fell back, today Shanghai copper close physical Yin column, below fell below Brin on the track, KDJ curve open to expand, the technical side of the lack of copper price support. In the evening, wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai Copper can hold the 47400 yuan / ton gate.

Lead: Shanghai lead 1909 contract opened at 16470 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai lead impact is weak, followed by a narrow range of shock along the 16505 yuan / ton line, in the afternoon, non-ferrous metals as a whole weakened, Shanghai lead also can not escape the downward trend, the center of gravity accelerated down, once lower to 16355 yuan / ton, finally closed at 16430 yuan / ton, down 175 yuan / ton, down 1.05%, and the position was reduced by 4696 hands to 61176 hands. Shanghai lead closed Dayin line, high fall, mostly caused by bulls profit from the place, and the outer market lead trend is weak, lead Shanghai lead strong power greatly weakened, but considering that Shanghai lead medium-and short-term moving average is still upward trend, night Shanghai lead or continue weak market.

Zinc: the main 1909 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 19335 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, dragging down the short position at the beginning of the day, dragging down Shanghai zinc to 19190 yuan / ton to find support, leaving the market at noon to boost Shanghai zinc to 19250 yuan / ton, but the 10-day EMA has a strong pressure, Shanghai zinc pressure dropped to 19230 yuan / ton first-line narrow range finishing, operating range not more than 30 yuan / ton, closing down 19235 yuan / ton, down 2885 yuan / ton from the previous transaction. It fell 1.46 percent, with trading volume down 14472 to 450000 and positions increased by 3912 to 265000. During the day, Shanghai zinc recorded two consecutive negative, the overall return to the 20,40-day moving average channel, supply volume recovery, consumption is still not significantly improved, resulting in domestic Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin social inventory recorded to stop the decline and increase, Shanghai zinc fundamentals support further weak, night or pressure Bringdao middle rail operation.

In the process of updating.

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