7.22 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Disk surface: Friday morning opened at $1849 / ton, slowly climbed to $1866 / ton, then due to the high U. S. index high diving, closed at $1847 / ton, down $4 / ton, down 0.22%, the day K line closed on the shadow line Xiaoyin line; The Shanghai Aluminium Company 1909 contract was dragged down by London Aluminum on Friday night, opening at 13935 yuan per ton, up 13995 yuan. / ton after the performance fell back, finally closed at 13880 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton from the day close.

Macro: (1) Bullard, a dovish Fed member and president of the St. Louis Fed, supported a 25 basis point cut at the end of the month and said he was willing to chair the Fed. Rosengren, president of the Boston Fed, said there was no need to cut interest rates, given the positive economic data since mid-June. (2) the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in July was 98.4, the previous value was 98.2, close to the best level in more than a decade, and the financial situation is expected to be the best since 2004; (3) Chinese enterprises have asked US exporters for quotations for the purchase of agricultural products and applied for tariff exemption.

Fundamentals: (1) cost side, Friday SMM alumina region weighted offer 2547 yuan / ton, down 61 yuan / ton compared with the previous Friday, the decline has converged; Chinalco Huaxing aluminum first batch of imported bauxite into the plant, is Australia's high-temperature mine, without the need for technical transformation of the production line, can be mixed directly; (2) demand side, overseas, the U.S. Department of Commerce approved Beverage Container Corp. The requirement to waive tariffs on about 35000 tons of aluminum plate for cans imported from China is mainly due to a shortage of domestic supply in the United States. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, imports of cans in the United States increased by 200 per cent between 2013 and 2018, and 70 per cent of imports in 2018 came from China.

Spot: Friday morning trading price in Shanghai and Wuxi between 13910 to 13920 yuan / ton, around 20-10 yuan / ton, about 75 yuan / ton higher than the previous day, a large household around 13920 yuan / ton in Shanghai and Wuxi also received goods, the second trading area interval aluminum fell slightly, market traders are more active, the price concentrated in 13890 to 13910 yuan / ton, to the plate discount 20-10 yuan / ton around. On Friday, the shipowners were very active in shipping at high prices, and some hedge middlemen were also more willing to receive the goods, but on the whole, they still sent out more and received less. The downstream performance is general, although near the weekend, but the fear of high mood is obvious, the enthusiasm to stock is not high. The day before the overall transaction in East China was flat on Friday.

Summary: aluminum prices are mainly affected by macro US monetary policy in the near future, but aluminum consumption has entered the off-season, and the cost is still in the downward stage, and short-term fundamentals are under pressure, so it is not recommended to continue to catch up. Based on the expectation of accelerating the storage in the peak season in September, it is suggested that the pullback can be in the position of 13800 yuan / ton, and the layout is more than a single, structurally concerned about the correct set of 0912 contracts, and the internal and external positive positions continue to be held, but it is not recommended to open a new one.

(SMM Li Hao 021 5166 6863)