[SMM analysis] Aluminum ingot spot Guangdong to Shanghai discount reappearance, how to develop in the future?

SMM, July 19, SMM data show that since the beginning of July this year, the price gap between Guangdong and Shanghai has narrowed from 80 yuan / ton all the way to this week's paste 10 near Pingshui, the discount market reappears, mainly for the following reasons.

First, since July, the volume of aluminum ingots shipped from Shandong, Yunnan and other places has gradually increased, and the weekly inflow of major warehouses in Guangdong has increased significantly, resulting in a relatively sufficient supply of aluminum ingots in Guangdong and a strong willingness of the holders to ship, and the spot base difference has gradually narrowed. The spot price of aluminum in the current month fell from 10 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton.

Second, the downstream of aluminum ingots in Guangdong is mainly composed of construction profile enterprises, which began to enter the off-season of consumption in the aluminum profile industry in July, and the strength of purchasing aluminum ingots in the downstream has become weaker, and the weak consumption has led to a gradual reduction in the weekly output of aluminum ingots in Guangdong. it is difficult to support the local spot aluminum price.

Third, some traders in Guangdong do not have a strong willingness to push prices, to a certain extent, affect the spot market trading sentiment.

On the whole, Guangdong spot aluminum ingots have followed the off-season into a phased storage cycle, the local aluminum ingot spot market performance exceeds demand, Guangdong and Shanghai price difference is expected to be difficult to recover in the short term, will maintain at-10 yuan / ton level weak shock.