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[SMM Cobalt Lithium spot Weekly report] Battery plant operating rate recovery cobalt salt price bottom (0715-0719)
Jul 19,2019 18:57CST
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Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, July 19 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

In terms of power batteries, the battery factory said this week that due to the end of the transition period of the new energy subsidy policy in 2019 and the implementation of the new policy, the downstream mainframe factories have gradually determined the technical routes of various models in the second half of the year, resulting in an increase in battery orders and a recovery in the start-up rate. As far as the technical route in the second half of the year is concerned, some car companies told SMM that safety is still the main consideration, followed by technical parameters such as energy density and mileage. Battery factory said that the current direct choice of high nickel route mainframe plant is still limited, optimistic about the partial model of nickel ternary material in the second half of the year. At present, Ningde era has been able to achieve the mass production and installation of 811 batteries, and some battery enterprises represented by Guoxuan High Technology and Tafel are conducting pilot tests on the research and development of high nickel batteries. In terms of model matching, in the third and fourth quarters, models including Weilai ES6, Xiaopeng P7, Hezhong U, Jinkang SF5 and other models will be launched one after another. SMM expects that there will be feedback on high-nickel batteries in the fourth quarter of this year, which will also directly affect the space of subsequent market demand for high-nickel batteries.

In terms of consumer batteries, electric bicycles, electric tools and other markets are in hot demand, especially for low-cost lithium manganate batteries. On the contrary, the traditional market has performed poorly, with China's mobile phone production totaling 810 million units from January to June 2019, down 6.9 per cent from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. As the current 5G is in the early stages of layout, consumer demand is weak, and the industry is in a wait-and-see state, leading consumer battery factories said that orders for lithium cobalt batteries in the first half of the year were significantly weaker than in the same period last year, and the performance for the whole of this year was expected to be lower than expected.

Electrolytic cobalt and cobalt hydroxide: in the first half of the week, the electric cobalt market continued to be depressed, downstream demand was weak, the market atmosphere was bleak, and trading prices continued to decline. In the second half of the week, affected by the hot money speculation, the futures market changed, the big factory intends to raise the quotation, but the industry is still skeptical about the continued growth, the market for a time wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, trading sporadic. Cobalt hydroxide, large plant inventory pressure is greater, the quotation is no longer strong, transaction prices decline, trading volume is still not significantly improved. The price of SMM electrolytic cobalt is 21.30-225000 yuan / ton, which is 2000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week. The price of SMM cobalt hydroxide was $7.6 to $7.80 per pound, down $0.60 per pound from last week.

Cobalt salt and nickel salt: the market price of cobalt salt bottomed out this week. The semi-annual report performance of the smelter is dismal, and the cobalt salt price is not only in the historical position, but also in many cobalt smelting products in the low position, some traders are optimistic that the falling space in the future is limited, and the goods are collected in the market. On the supply side, the opening rate of the leading plant has not yet recovered. After the speculative changes, cobalt salt producers sold at a low price in the second half of the week. At present, the cobalt salt metal price is about 170000 yuan. Nickel sulfate rose sharply this week, mainly driven by nickel prices, downstream buyer inventory level is low, although demand has not recovered, but rigid demand has to be accepted. The price of SMM cobalt sulfate is 3.5-37000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The current price of SMM cobalt chloride is 4.1-43000 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton from last week. SMM nickel sulfate price is 24000-27500 yuan / ton, the average price is up 1500 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Cobalt oxide: four cobalt prices continue to decline, digital electronic demand is still no sign of improvement, coupled with the previous low cobalt chloride prices gradually transmitted, trading prices fell. The current price of SMM cobalt oxide is 14.5-148000 yuan / ton, which is 6500 yuan / ton lower than that of last week.

Ternary precursor: the price of ternary precursor rose slightly, mainly driven by the surge of nickel sulfate. The price of nickel sulfate producers has been raised by about 3,000 yuan. Although the precursor manufacturers are unwilling to accept it, there are still a small number of transactions under rigid demand. The price of SMM ternary precursor (523 type) is 7.1yuan-73000 yuan / ton, the average price is 1000 yuan / ton higher than that of last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (622 type) is 7.70-79000 yuan / ton, the average price is 1000 yuan / ton higher than that of last week.

Lithium carbonate: battery-grade lithium carbonate demand is not good, the market mentality is bearish, manufacturers do not pick up goods actively. For the bulk purchase price of some positive materials, battery-grade lithium carbonate has reached 6.8-69000 yuan / ton. The price of industrial grade lithium carbonate with main content more than 99.2% (which can be directly used in lithium manganate) is relatively strong, stable at 6.2-65000 yuan / ton, but for industrial grade lithium carbonate with high impurity content or main content less than 99.2%, the price is about 60 000 yuan / ton, and has a further downward trend. This week, the price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate was 69,000 yuan / ton, an average price drop of 500 yuan / ton compared with last week. This week, the price of zero-grade lithium carbonate in SMM industry was 6.2-65000 yuan / ton, the average price was the same as last week.

Lithium hydroxide: battery grade lithium hydroxide prices continue to fall this week. The purchase demand of battery grade lithium hydroxide is light, and the upstream manufacturers have appeared the low price throwing behavior of returning funds as soon as possible. At present, it is known that the lowest market quotation is 76000 yuan / ton. Manufacturers revealed that downstream demand is weak, even if the price is difficult to sell. This week, the price of SMM battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) is 7.8-81000 yuan / ton, the average price is 500 yuan / ton lower than that of last week.

Lithium cobalt acid: lithium cobalt acid demand is stable, affected by the previous four cobalt and lithium carbonate price decline, trading volume, although the terminal cobalt prices briefly rebound some concern, but still unwilling to build inventory to promote price increases. The price of SMM4.35V lithium cobalt acid is 18.5-195000 yuan / ton, down 8000 yuan / ton from last week.

Ternary materials: the current material factory orders have not yet shown a significant recovery, the first half of the market stable shipment, the second half of the face of precursor price upward pressure, but the terminal does not buy, and price transmission still takes time. The price of SMM ternary material (523 type) is 12.5-133000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary material (type 622) is 14.1-148000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Lithium iron phosphate (power type): the price of lithium iron phosphate is flat this week. Power lithium iron phosphate recent market trading atmosphere is light, manufacturers revealed that the specific order improvement time is temporarily unknown, is expected to last about 2 months. Although the cost side has yellow phosphorus price rise interference, but by the terminal demand light influence, the iron phosphate itself shipment pressure is bigger, has not yet transmitted the cost to rise. This week, the price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 4.6-49000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Lithium manganate: lithium manganate trading this week is stable, volume price down slightly. The demand for volume lithium manganate is light and the transaction is mediocre. Due to the sharp decline in demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate, some cathode material manufacturers tilt their production capacity to lithium manganate, increasing market competition. This week SMM lithium manganate (volume type) price is 2.9-37000 yuan / ton, the average price is down 1000 yuan / ton compared with last week. This week SMM lithium manganate (dynamic) price is 4.7-49000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Future forecast: at present, the price of cobalt salt in China is at the bottom of about 170000, and the falling space is about 10%. Corresponding to the price of cobalt is about 144000 yuan, the reasonable price of cobalt metal should be about 190000 yuan, but considering that its plate is small, the contradiction between supply and demand is not significant, and the leverage effect is high, smm predicts that cobalt metal will increase the price of cobalt salt for a period of time. At present, the operating rate of battery plants has improved, and the expectation of marginal improvement in demand is clear. SMM suggests that the long-term and steady development of the industry is inseparable from the stable and reliable cost of raw materials, and the speculative drilling without the fundamentals will inevitably lead to a harsher winter.

SMM Cobalt Lithium Research team

Hong Lu 021 51666814

Ning Ziwei 021 51666780

Qin Jingjing 021 51666828

 

 

 

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