SMM News: after nearly half a month of nickel price surge, today the copper boss of the non-ferrous plate took over the baton, aluminum multi-head push to 13975 after the obvious rise weak, began to fall back. Relatively speaking, there was an inflection point in electrolytic aluminum stocks last week, which continued to increase by 1000 tons on Monday compared with last Thursday, while Thursday's inventory data came out flat last week. After the news came out, the bulls increased their positions, reversed the previous situation of turning back, and today they are driven by the craziness of the non-ferrous plate to rush to a high position again.
In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the production of metallurgical alumina decreased by 242000 tons in June compared with the previous month, and the output is expected to be flat in July; the production of electrolytic aluminum in June decreased by 33000 tons from the previous month, and the output is expected to increase slightly in July. On the whole, the pressure on the supply side is not great. The opening rate of aluminum sheet and strip enterprises in June was 70.32%, down 4% from the previous month. The starting rate of aluminum foil enterprises is expected to be flat or slightly lower in July, and the starting rate of aluminum foil enterprises is expected to continue to fall in July. The operating rate of aluminum cables is expected to continue to fall in July; the operating rate of aluminum cables is expected to increase by nearly 3% to 48.33% from the previous month, and cable production in July is expected to be the same as in June. As the cumulative process slows this week and continues to focus on the cumulative situation, the market may have a stronger-than-expected demand in the off-season. Although the cost end support weakens, but the consumption has the certain support, the short-term aluminum price trend has the certain game variable. From today's point of view, Shanghai Aluminum is very difficult to break through the 14000 barrier, in the bulls such a substantial increase in the position is still unbreakable, it is a good time at high altitude. Operation recommendation 2, still after the aluminum price correction, waiting for the opportunity to layout long-term more single to wait for the arrival of the third quarter consumption peak season.
East China Aluminum: morning Shanghai tin (note: follow-up "Shanghai tin" substitute refers to "Shanghai and Wuxi") the transaction price between 13910 and 13920 yuan / ton, the price is around 20 yuan / ton, 75 yuan / ton higher than yesterday's price, Hangzhou transaction price is between 13920 yuan / ton and 13940 yuan / ton, a large household around 13920 yuan / ton in the morning in Shanghai and Wuxi part of the goods, the second trading area interval aluminum slightly dropped, the market trade between merchants is more active, the price is about 13920 yuan / ton, Hangzhou trading price is 13920 yuan / ton, Hangzhou trading price is between 13920 yuan / ton and 13940 yuan / ton, and the trading between market traders is more active. The price is concentrated between 13890 and 13910 yuan / ton, and the surface discount is 20-10 yuan / ton. Today, at high prices, the shipowners are very active in shipping, and some hedge middlemen are also more willing to receive the goods, but on the whole, they still offer more and receive less. Downstream today's performance is general, although near the weekend, but the fear of high mood is obvious, the enthusiasm of stock is not high. The overall transaction in East China today was flat yesterday.
South China Aluminum: the transaction price in Guangdong this morning was concentrated at 13900 to 13910 yuan per ton, while the price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai narrowed to-10 yuan per ton. Today, trading between traders is more active, the market more and less, the atmosphere is more flat than yesterday; downstream enterprises to receive goods less than the usual Friday, more on-demand procurement or wait-and-see attitude. On the whole, the spot trading of aluminum ingots in South China today is OK.
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