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[SMM Daily Review] Shanghai Ni explosion 8 Lianyang Iron Mine hit a new closing high.
Jul 19,2019 16:39CST
translation
Source:SMM
Today, Shanghai nickel hit the daily limit of 8 Lianyang, up 3.89%, 08 contracts hit a new high of 11879 since June last year, trading volume reached more than 1.5 million hands, a sign of how crazy this wave of bulls is. Black iron ore is up 2.35% again, hitting a closing high in more than a year. Shanghai copper rose 2.52% in the day to 47970, which has broken through the important pressure level of 47500; Shanghai aluminum closed up 0.54%, Shanghai zinc closed higher, 057%, Shanghai lead closed up 1.4%, to 16500; Shanghai tin closed down 0.16%. (unit: yuan / ton)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 19 news: today, Shanghai nickel touched the limit recorded 8 Lianyang, up 3.89%, 08 contracts hit a new high of 11879 since June last year, trading volume reached more than 1.5 million hands, shows how crazy this wave of bulls. Black iron ore is up 2.35% again, hitting a closing high in more than a year. Shanghai copper rose 2.52% in the day to 47970, which has broken through the important pressure level of 47500; Shanghai aluminum closed up 0.54%, Shanghai zinc closed higher, 057%, Shanghai lead closed up 1.4%, to 16500; Shanghai tin closed down 0.16%. (unit: yuan / ton)

(Shanghai nickel daily chart, explosion volume rose again)

At present, the price is already at a high level, with a trading volume of 1.56 million hands, nearly twice the previous average volume of 800000 hands, while the position volume has dropped from the original high of 250000 hands to 110000 hands. The short position has already conceded defeat and surrendered, and it has gone seven, eight, eight. It is recommended that no entry bulls had better wait and see, after all, leave Qingshan, do not worry about no firewood.

Jingchuan, deputy general manager of CUHK Futures, said that the rise in nickel prices this week was due to market speculation about the impact of last Sunday's earthquake on Hamahela Island in Indonesia on nickel mines and nickel iron plants; second, market speculation about mining inspections in the Philippines; and third, market speculation that relevant state departments will soon carry out performance grading evaluation and differential management in 15 key industries, such as iron and steel, coal, cement, chemical, and so on.

Jing Chuan said that the market was clearly driven by supply problems, while the relevant short hedges were forced to leave the market, exacerbating the upward level of the market. But it is clear that the signs of excessive rise are clear, and the risk of continuing to catch up is already accumulating.

Shanghai nickel rise in addition to foreign earthquakes, export restrictions and other factors, its own low inventory is also a driver. However, SMM believes that in the context of no major news changes on the supply and demand side, the recent continued rise in nickel prices is also inextricably linked to the positive measures taken by large stainless steel plants, and the crazy differences in the original spot weakness are also being tried to improve. The spot market, which has been weak since large stainless steel plants entered the market on Tuesday, narrowed the discount from 500 yuan per ton to 300 yuan per ton on Wednesday, but the deal faded after the buying spree at large stainless steel plants.

In addition, stainless steel factories and agents are also following the madness of the nickel market and continue to raise the price of stainless steel shipment. As of July 17, the cold and hot rolled price of 304 stainless steel has risen 400 yuan per ton compared with last week. The prices of private 304 four-foot cold rolled coil and 304 four-foot hot rolled coil in Wuxi area are 14550 and 14650 yuan / ton and 14000 to 14100 yuan / ton, respectively. Operators said that the transaction situation is general, the demand is basically stable, some traders frequently inquire, but the transaction is limited for the time being. In the short term, the trading of 300 series stainless steel may be improved.

Jingchuan, deputy general manager of CUHK Futures, said that the rise in nickel prices this week was due to market speculation about the impact of last Sunday's earthquake on Hamahela Island in Indonesia on nickel mines and nickel iron plants; second, market speculation about mining inspections in the Philippines; and third, market speculation that relevant state departments will soon carry out performance grading evaluation and differential management in 15 key industries, such as iron and steel, coal, cement, chemical, and so on.

Jing Chuan said that the market was clearly driven by supply problems, while the relevant short hedges were forced to leave the market, exacerbating the upward level of the market. But it is clear that the signs of excessive rise are clear, and the risk of continuing to catch up is already accumulating.

SMM believes that there is no substantial and major news change on the supply and demand side, the nickel price has continued to rise recently, and the products in each link of the industrial chain are also in a state of passive follow-up. The rhythm of the financial-supported bull market is difficult to grasp, and it is not suitable for unilateral traders to enter the market now. Many rumors about Indonesia, such as financing, policy changes, etc., are worth analyzing and measuring, but they are also lack of guidance for the short-term market. "look at the minutes of the SMM nickel internal morning meeting."

On the black side, iron ore rose 2.35% again, hitting a new closing high of 916 yuan / ton since 2014. Different from the previous period, the recent rise in iron ore driver has loosened, port inventory shows signs of stopping and rebounding, but the volume of dredging steady small and medium-sized increase (demand is also OK), these days spot shippers shipment compared with the previous period is slightly more difficult, negative factors increase, but not enough to reverse and become a downward pattern.

In terms of wood formation, the disk obviously followed the fluctuating rhythm of iron ore, the hot coil closed slightly higher by 0.18% to 3904, and the thread closed by 0.32%, to 4001. This week, inventory threads, hot rolls are cumbersome, inventory from steel mills to traders, as a whole traders are more positive (optimistic about future environmental protection and other factors, including the 11th military parade). However, with the loss of electric arc furnace, the profit of steel enterprises is not high, the average gross profit of thread is about 330, and the gross profit of hot coil is 150 to 200, which is not particularly pessimistic.

In the last period of crude oil, the trend of domestic oil prices obviously followed the external market, the last period of oil prices fell 1.98% to 431.4. In terms of external information, the easing of the Iranian issue is the main driver of the drop in oil prices. Us Secretary of State Pompeo said that Iran has indicated that it is ready to negotiate its guided bomb project. In addition, the Gulf of Mexico crude oil region has been affected by the hurricane has receded, putting further pressure on oil prices, so the decline in oil prices has a strong continuity.

 

A brief comment by SMM analyst on July 19

Copper: today, Shanghai copper main contract 1909 opened in the morning at 47020 yuan / ton, after the opening of a large number of bulls into the market, copper prices rose all the way to 47900 yuan / ton, followed by a slight downward shift in the center of gravity, the center of gravity maintained in the vicinity of 47750 yuan / ton narrow concussion finishing, until the afternoon, the opening of copper prices continued to rise, and the highest in the afternoon 48020 yuan / ton, up 48000 gate position, closed at 47970 yuan / ton, up 1180 yuan / ton, up 2.52%. Today, Shanghai Copper's main contract position increased significantly by 55000 hands to 298000 hands, while trading volume increased by 235000 hands to 375000 hands. The Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by 54000 hands to 621000 hands today, while trading volume increased by 363000 hands to 611000 hands. The overall performance of Shanghai copper rose today, mainly due to a speech by the chairman of the New York Federal Reserve to raise expectations of a 50 basis point cut in the market, as well as a global interest rate cut spree, with a number of central banks cutting interest rates one after another. Market optimism is high, Shanghai Copper today in the non-ferrous plate capital inflows unusually bright, up to 1.135 billion. Today, Shanghai copper harvest entity Dayang column, above has broken through the 48000 level, broke through the 60-day moving average pressure, KDJ curve positive upward expansion, technical support in the face of copper prices. In the evening, waiting for the guidance of the outside market, test whether Shanghai copper can continue to rush to the 48100 yuan / ton gate level.

Aluminum: Shanghai Aluminum 1909 contract opened at 13900 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening of the market, the bulls took the initiative to increase their positions, and Shanghai aluminum rose rapidly before noon, reaching a high level of 13975 yuan per ton, close to the 60-day moving average above. In the afternoon, high short positions took the initiative to increase positions, Shanghai aluminum shock fell back, at the end of the day short stop earnings left the market, Shanghai aluminum closed at 13935 yuan / ton. Shanghai Aluminium increased its position by 8900 hands to 246114 hands, while the Shanghai Aluminum Index increased its position by 17068 hands to 704768 hands. Shanghai aluminum fundamentals have not changed, short-term costs down consumption weaker, while maintaining the third quarter consumption improvement expectations, there is no obvious direction. In the near future, it is more driven by the macro, the outer disk and the surrounding varieties as a whole. Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain interval shock next week, the center of gravity has increased, above 13950-14000 yuan / ton is still a short space can enter the safety point.

In the process of updating.

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