SMM7, 19 March: yesterday, New York Fed Chairman Williams urged a cut in interest rates, yesterday the dollar closed at 96.696, down 0.54 per cent. Recently, many countries have announced interest rate cuts one after another, and the market is expected to enter a new cycle of interest rate cuts, which has become a hotbed for the recent rise in the basic metals market. Shanghai Copper 1909 rose as much as 2.24 percent, Shanghai Aluminum 1909 rose 0.83 percent, Shanghai Zinc 1909 rose 0.67 percent, Shanghai lead 1909 rose as high as 1.4 percent, and Shanghai Ni 1908 dropped by as much as 1.4 percent in early trading after more than a few days of skyrocketing. Shanghai tin 1909 rose 0.41 per cent at one point.
Williams (John Williams), chairman of the New York Fed, said on Thursday: "when interest rates are low and economic growth slows, central bankers need to act quickly and forcefully. Instead of waiting for a disaster to happen, take precautions. When you only have so much stimulus at hand, it is worth moving quickly to lower interest rates at the first sign of a recession. " Traders now think the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at its July 30-31 meeting is nearly 50 per cent, compared with a previous estimate of 34 per cent, according to federal funds rate futures. In addition, the good performance of European economic data has strengthened confidence in the recovery of the European economy, while the situation of Britain's hard Brexit has eased and the pound has rebounded, weakening the market's preference for a safe-haven dollar. The dollar's centre of gravity has shifted since the end of May.
The Shanghai nickel index rose as much as 23 per cent from its low on July 3 to its high on July 18, and its position rose from 398000 on July 5 to 641000 so far today. In the absence of fundamental support, it is completely driven by funds to cause a continuous surge. Downstream short-term procurement due to price inflation is less, the market purchases on demand.
SMM believes that there is no substantial and major news change on the supply and demand side, the nickel price has continued to rise recently, and the products in each link of the industrial chain are also in a state of passive follow-up. The rhythm of the financial-supported bull market is difficult to grasp, and it is not suitable for unilateral traders to enter the market now. Many rumors about Indonesia, such as financing, policy changes, etc., are worth analyzing and measuring, but they are also lack of guidance for the short-term market. "View the minutes of the SMM nickel internal morning meeting
At present, the market has different views on the short-term trend of nickel prices:
Deputy General Manager of CUHK Futures / Jingchuan:
Nickel prices rose this week: first, the market speculation on the impact of last Sunday's earthquake on Hamahela Island in Indonesia on nickel mines and nickel-iron plants; second, market speculation on mining inspections in the Philippines; third, market speculation that relevant state departments will soon carry out performance grading evaluation and differentiation management in 15 key industries, such as iron and steel, coal, cement, chemical industry, and so on. Through the production process level, treatment technology and other indicators to formulate performance rating rules, the industry enterprises will be divided into A, B, C grades, in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and surrounding, Yangtze River Delta region, Fenwei Plain and other key environmental protection areas, according to different weather conditions, according to the grade to take different measures to stop production. The market was clearly driven by supply problems, while the relevant short hedges were forced out of the market, exacerbating the upside. But it is clear that the signs of excessive rise are clear, and the risk of continuing to catch up is already accumulating.
Soochow Futures:
The dollar has continued to weaken recently, while a 7.1 magnitude earthquake struck Hamahela Island, one of the main producers of Indonesia's laterite nickel mines, and a new round of mining review has opened in the Philippines. Indonesia may restrict nickel exports in 2022, raising concerns about the supply of nickel mines and boosting nickel prices. On the demand side, the stainless steel market is stimulated by the rise in nickel prices, stainless steel prices are up, driven by the current situation, the terminal began to come out to purchase, stainless steel 300 series orders have improved, the current stainless steel supply and demand temporarily maintain a balanced state, there is support for the current nickel price. Therefore, I think that in the short term, nickel prices will remain high, but from the point of view of the whole year, there is still a large supply of ferronickel in the second half of the year. We need to be alert to the risks behind the continuous rise in prices. It is suggested that more orders can continue to be held, but at present, there is already a suspicion of overbuying. I don't recommend catching up now.
Cinda Futures / Zhou Lei:
This round of nickel price rise has a certain degree of rationality and contingency, on the one hand, nickel long period is to do long varieties, supply and demand pattern of the fourth year shortage, low inventory, new battery demand all determine that nickel is a long configuration. On the other hand, the short delivery of nickel pig iron has been fully realized by the market, but there is no obvious surplus in China, which has an obvious expectation difference. The superimposed improvement in macro expectations, as well as the higher-than-expected production and sales of new energy in January and June, have created speculative demand for bulls. Although the market has repeatedly stressed the negative factors of the huge production capacity of nickel pig iron, the structural shortage and delivery of pure nickel is also an objective phenomenon that must be faced squarely. Due to the rapid rise in nickel prices, do not rule out the introduction of funds to boost, and to the current position, and then to catch up with the greater risk. Whether this position is a bubble is not easy to comment on, after all, the fundamentals are not very long-driven, but periodically, nickel is not a short seller, so the start of the nickel market is still worth looking forward to, waiting for the price to match the stronger fundamental drive to appear.
Analyst A:
At present, the top type of this wave of rise has not yet appeared, which means that it is more likely to pull a new one next week. If you want to touch the sky, at least until next week, now the rising energy of Len Ni is still very strong, there is no signal feature of exhaustion. Even if you are successful in feeling the sky, you should pay attention to the short, flat and quick technique. If you want to reach the top of a large level, you have to wait until at least 60 minutes. The daily chart shows the characteristics of energy exhaustion.
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