Summary of the lead morning meeting:
Macro:
It is reported that US economic data: the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 216000 last week, still near an all-time low; last week, the consumer comfort index rose to its highest level in 18 years; the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index posted its biggest increase in a decade in July, easing fears of a contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Yesterday, the central banks of South Korea and Indonesia in Asia announced lower benchmark interest rates for their own banks for the first time in three years. Before that, India, New Zealand, and Australia had already taken interest rate cut measures. Now the global economy has joined the tide of interest rate cuts one after another. A direct and clear conclusion is that the global economy has once again entered the "recession" stage of the cycle after a decade of recovery. After the Fed cut interest rates at the end of the month, more economies will announce interest rate cuts because their currency exchange rate constraints will be removed and are necessary to stimulate domestic economic growth.
Fundamentals:
The strength of lead in Shanghai has not changed, and the position has been broken one after another, coupled with the fact that the supply of goods has flowed into the market after delivery, and the quotation discount has been expanded again. Among them, the Shanghai market Shuangyan lead quoted for 1908 contract flat water, Jinsha lead for 1908 contract water 50 yuan / ton, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Jijin, Wanyang, Yuguang, copper crown lead to 1908 contract discount 50 yuan / ton to Pingshui quotation, At the same time, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic lead paste is 150 yuan to 50 yuan per ton. In terms of recycled lead, the supply of reduced lead is still tight, but the price fluctuation of waste battery is limited, the profit space has appeared, and the average price of regenerated refined lead has been expanded to 250 yuan / ton to SMM1# electrolytic lead. However, the downstream fear of high demand is only carefully picked, traders are passive, valuable and unmarketable.
Lead price:
Lun lead into eight Lianyang single side of the market, there is a short-term possibility to continue to strengthen, but the current position is a strong pressure level in the early stage, whether the effective breakthrough, temporary wait-and-see; Overnight Shanghai lead continued to change hands, but it is not difficult to find that the extent of the uplink is limited, indicating that to this height bulls hesitant, and short cautious opening positions, if the future market can not continue to break through, the strength of short positions will be increased, Shanghai lead has the possibility of short-term rapid return of increases;
The price of SMM1# lead is expected to rise 100 yuan to 150 yuan per ton today.
