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[SMM analysis] Photovolt profiles continue to improve in the second half of the year.
Jul 18,2019 19:14CST
translation
Source:SMM
By the end of June 2019, the domestic photovoltaic index 2.2269GW, combined with the previous announcement of 2019 total 3.5GW household photovoltaic index, household photovoltaic remaining 1.27GW index!
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

By the end of June 2019, the total installed capacity of household photovoltaic projects that could be included in 2019 was 2.2269 million kilowatts, of which 1.7528 million kilowatts of grid-connected projects would be completed before the issuance of the Circular, and 474100 kilowatts of new grid-connected projects would be built after the issuance of the Circular.

Thus, by the end of June 2019, the domestic photovoltaic index 2.2269GW, combined with the previous announcement of 2019 total 3.5GW household photovoltaic index, household photovoltaic still remaining 1.27GW index!

SMM analysis shows that compared with the 2018 "531" policy, the development status of photovoltaic module market is different, photovoltaic orders are more stable in the first half of 2019, photovoltaic in the domestic aluminum profile market gradually weakened in June / July photovoltaic did not show a significant recession trend, and recently announced in June photovoltaic module exports 5974.36MW, an increase of 95.9% year-on-year, 5.6% month-on-month increase, year-on-year and month-on-month increases.

According to this pace of development, it can be seen that there is still a certain potential market for photovoltaic profiles at home and abroad in the second half of the year. According to previous years, the market demand in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half of the year. If the heat of demand continues in the second half of this year, after the Energy Bureau announces the household photovoltaic index, the market may usher in a wave of rush loading, and the photovoltaic market in the second half of the year is still expected.

The original text of the policy is as follows:

Household Photovoltaic Project Information (July 2019)

In accordance with the Circular of the National Energy Administration on matters related to the Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation projects in 2019 (Guonefa Xinneng (2019) 49, hereinafter referred to as the "Circular") and the Circular on matters related to the publication and submission of Information on Household Photovoltaic projects in 2019 (2019) 45), according to the relevant requirements for the management of household photovoltaic projects, according to the provincial energy authorities and power grid enterprises, the relevant requirements for the management of household photovoltaic projects shall be submitted according to the provincial energy authorities and power grid enterprises. According to the statistics of the National Renewable Energy Information Management Center (hereinafter referred to as the Information Center), a total of 30 provinces across the country have submitted information on household photovoltaic projects (Tibet has not been included in the 2019 financial subsidy scale of household photovoltaic projects, not submitted).

According to statistics, by the end of June 2019, the total installed capacity of household photovoltaic projects that can be included in the state financial subsidy scale in 2019 is 2.2269 million kilowatts, of which: 1.7528 million kilowatts of grid-connected projects will be completed before the issuance of the Circular, and 474100 kilowatts of the new grid-connected projects will be completed after the issuance of the Circular.

This is the first time that household photovoltaic information has been counted and published nationwide. Affected by a large number of household photovoltaic projects, long statistical cycle, heavy workload and other factors, some provinces did not complete the reporting work until the morning of July 17, but some areas have not yet completed the publication of household photovoltaic project information as required. The provincial energy departments and power grid enterprises shall continue to do a good job in the publication and monthly reporting of household photovoltaic project information in accordance with the requirements of document No. 45 of Sineng (2019), so as to ensure that they are released on time and reported in a timely manner. If it cannot be published on time and reported in a timely manner, it will be made known to the public.

 

Table: included in the statistical table of installed capacity of household photovoltaic projects on the scale of national financial subsidies in 2019 (as of June 30, 2019)

Schedule

Included in the household photovoltaic project on the scale of national financial subsidy in 2019

Installed capacity statistics

(as at 30 June 2019)

Unit: ten thousand kilowatts

Serial number

Provinces

Guoneng Xinneng (2019) 49 paper issued (May 28, 2019) to complete the grid-connected project by May 28, 2019

New grid-connected project after the publication of Guoneng Xinneng (2019) 49

Subtotal

one

Beijing

3.15

0.35

3.5

two

Tianjin

0.13

0.04

0.17

three

Hebei

23.74884

9.108782

32.86

Among them: Hebei South Network

19.00884

6.958782

25.97

Hebei North Power Grid

4.74

2.15

6.89

four

Shanxi

10.16097

1.679881

11.8408505

five

Inner Mongolia

1.702584

0.204246

1.9068

Among them: Muncie

0.129183

0.0016

0.130783

Mengdong

1.573401

0.202646

1.776047

six

Liaoning

2.4835

0.8758

3.3593

seven

Jilin

0.756171

0.413608

1.1697788

eight

Heilongjiang Province

0.8282

0.068

0.8962

nine

Shanghai

3.23

0.22

3.450

ten

Jiangsu

7.278411

2.07776

9.3562

eleven

Zhejiang

19.61599

3.82102

23.4370

twelve

Anhui

6.43

1.59

8.02

thirteen

Fujian

3.24837

0.479481

3.7279

fourteen

Jiangxi

3.86

0.85

4.71

fifteen

Shandong

42.9135

18.5208

61.4343

sixteen

Henan

13.63934

3.989911

17.6292

seventeen

Hubei

2.44

0.07

2.51

eighteen

Hunan

5.851063

0.577608

6.43

nineteen

Chongqing

0.218251

0.02979

0.248041

twenty

Sichuan

0.4535

0.0451

0.4986

twenty-one

Shaanxi

2.207777

0.522532

2.730309

twenty-two

Gansu

2.117933

0.114453

2.2323855

twenty-three

Qinghai

0.221434

0.1711

0.3925335

twenty-four

Ningxia

0.371239

0.073982

0.445221

twenty-five

Xinjiang Autonomous region (including Corps)

0.0847

0.0193

0.1040

twenty-six

Guangdong

13.5746

1.3559

14.9305

twenty-seven

Guangxi

3.048305

0.07035

3.1186545

twenty-eight

Yunnan

1.1825

0.0373

1.2198

twenty-nine

Guizhou

0.07145

0.01616

0.0876

thirty

Hainan

0.261713

0.012713

0.274425

Total

175.280332

47.405576

222.685908

Note: Tibet has not been included in the household photovoltaic project on the scale of financial subsidy in 2019, and has not been submitted.

 

Price forecast

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