7.18 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting
Market surface: yesterday, Lun Aluminum performance first suppressed and then rose, opening at US $13844 / ton, bottoming out at US $13836 / ton and closing at US $1847 / ton. The Japanese K line closed at Silianyang, up US $3 / ton, or 0.16 per cent. The 1909 contract of Shanghai Aluminium Company fell after the opening of the contract, closing at 13850 yuan / ton at night, down 60 yuan / ton from the opening of the day, mainly with an increase in short positions.
Macro: overseas, (1) the Federal Reserve issued an economic brown book report, and its view of the US economy remained unchanged, that is, during the period from the middle of May to the early June, US economic activity expanded moderately as a whole; (2) the annualized data of new housing starts in the United States fell for two consecutive months in June, with a published value of-0.9, a forecast of-0.7, and a previous value of-0.9. affected by this weak data, the US Index fell at night; On the domestic side, (1) the Ministry of Commerce announced that the total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide reached 19.5 trillion yuan from January to June, an increase of 8.4 percent over the same period last year, and that the growth rate of consumption in June rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8 percent, the highest rate in nearly 15 months. (2) in its report in early July, Morgan Stanley predicted that global car production would fall by 4 per cent in 2019 and by more than 13 per cent in China.
Fundamentals: (1) the supply gap of primary aluminum market from January to May this year was 344000 tons, compared with 993000 tons for the whole of 2018, and the demand for primary aluminum from January to May this year was 25.82 million tons, an increase of 476000 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 2.0 percent over the same period last year, according to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS). (2) Alcoa's operating income fell 24% in the second quarter from a year earlier, and its global aluminum demand is expected to grow by 1.25% to 2.25% in 2019, down from a previous forecast of 2% to 3%. On the domestic side, on the cost side, the Xinjiang Department of Industry and Information Technology recently issued a notice on the AC power consumption data of liquid aluminum electrolysis in 2018 for Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum enterprises, involving six Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum enterprises, such as Oriental Hope, its Asia, Shenhuo, and so on.
Spot: the transaction price between Shanghai and Wuxi on Wednesday is between 13830 and 13850 yuan / ton, and the price is between 20 yuan and 10 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as yesterday. The transaction price in Hangzhou is between 13850 and 13860 yuan / ton. Early opening aluminum down, the holder delivery is very active, forming a more and less situation, driven by the receiving rhythm of a large household, the market trading is active, the transaction is better, with the floating of aluminum futures, the shipping price of the holder has increased, and the middleman's willingness to replenish the goods has converged at a high price, and the trading between buyers and sellers has begun to show a stalemate and a decline in trading activity. Downstream is still on-demand procurement, because the spot price has no advantage over the previous day, wait-and-see mood has not changed, the status of receiving goods is almost the same as on Tuesday. The overall deal in East China on Wednesday was average.
Conclusion: electrolytic aluminum accumulates in stages, and the cost end is still going down, so we maintain the view of short-term aluminum price pressure, but based on the expectation of the consumption peak season in September, it is suggested that the layout should be more than 13500 yuan / ton. Structurally, it is possible to focus on the borrow, positive positions inside and outside the 09 / 12 contract, but it is not recommended to open a new one. Today's spot price is expected to be 20 yuan / ton lower than yesterday, on the month near Pingshui.
(SMM Li Hao 021 5166 6863)