SMM News: information Analysis:
(1) the performance of non-ferrous metals continued to fluctuate yesterday, and zinc prices at home and abroad gave up their gains slightly. In addition, yesterday, Shanghai zinc futures small Back structure maintained; Shanghai zinc futures position further reduced by more than 3, 000 hands to 533000 hands, capital is still cautious.
(2) LME zinc stocks fell slightly by 100 to 80650 tons yesterday, while LME zinc write-off warehouse receipts were 32575 tons, accounting for 40.39 per cent of inventories. Yesterday, zinc warehouse receipt stocks fell slightly by 298 tons to 39683 tons.
(4) on July 14, the LME zinc liter discount (0-3) was US $4 / ton, and the spot monthly rising water of LME zinc fell back again.
(5) the spot quotation of domestic zinc rose yesterday. Shanghai 0 # ordinary brand on the Shanghai zinc 08 contract rising water 60-70 yuan / ton, the market shipping willingness to pick up, but the downstream more wait-and-see, the transaction becomes weaker; Tianjin maintains near Pingshui, the lower reaches of the early period of bargain buying has been part of the overdraft consumption, the transaction is obviously lighter; Guangdong on the Shanghai stock market discount narrowed to 110 yuan / ton, the transaction is also worse.
Logic: in the medium term, the certainty of the continuation of high domestic zinc supply is strong, the seasonal weakness of consumption is prominent, coupled with the short-term import of zinc is expected to increase the inflow into China. Therefore, recently, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory temporarily fell, do not change the medium-term inventory upward trend; also pay attention to the possibility of LME zinc short-term re-delivery. At present, the zinc futures prices of Shanghai zinc and LME return to the small BACK structure. The expectation that the zinc fundamental is weak maintains, the zinc market capital is on the cautious side. Therefore, the short-term macro level has stabilized, but it may be difficult to continue to promote zinc prices; it is expected that the weak downward trend of zinc prices is expected to continue in the medium term.
Operation advice: empty single holding; buy copper and sell zinc.
Risk factors: macro mood changes significantly, domestic zinc supply is not as expected. (source: Citic Futures)