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[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]
Jul 18,2019 08:57CST
translation
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

On the 17th of SMM7,

 

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: us-China trade talks are reported to be deadlocked over Huawei; the US Secretary of Commerce said the interview would depend on the outcome of the telephone talks. The Federal Reserve Brown Book shows that the US economy is making steady progress and the outlook is improving. The number of new housing starts in the United States fell for the second month in a row in June, as the decline in apartment starts outpaced the increase in single-family housing starts.

 

Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:

 

Shanghai: after the center of gravity of zinc operation has moved up, the intention of market shipment has improved obviously. Morning trading chief single trading dominant, to the average price of the net transaction is relatively active, Shengtianshui 60 to 70 yuan / ton or so stable, low-price transaction activity is higher. Entering the second trading period, the market is still dominated by shipment, after loose circulation, the receiver intends to rise 60 yuan / ton procurement, while the market mainstream quotation continues to rise 70 yuan / ton, the transfer parties are divided, but the transaction is concentrated in the low price range, downstream every rise and wait-and-see, within the day inquiry procurement are cooling, the overall transaction is slightly less than yesterday.

 

Guangdong: refineries actively ship goods, the market supply of goods is abundant. Holders are mainly shipping, in the morning concentrated quotation in the average price of-20 to the average price of-40 yuan / ton, downstream wait-and-see mood is stronger, few receive goods, enter the second trading period market quotation concentrated in the 09 contract discount 30 yuan / ton or so, however, the delivery volume is still relatively limited, follow-up transactions are more concentrated in the 09 contract discount 50-40 yuan / ton around. Overall, today's upstream holders actively ship, traders contribute to the main trading, downstream more wait-and-see, the overall market transaction is worse than yesterday.

 

Tianjin: the disk is going up, the refinery is actively shipping, and the circulation of goods in the market is relatively abundant. The early quotation of the holder focused on the rising water of 60 to 120 yuan / ton for the 08 contract, but the market transaction did not appear. Some of the subsequent holders reduced the source price of high-priced brands by 40 yuan per ton, and the market transaction improved slightly, mainly focused on the supply of high-priced brands after the price adjustment, while other brands contributed a small part of the transaction. Overall, in the early downstream buying on the follow-up consumption overdraft, superimposed disk upstream, downstream waiting for a strong wait-and-see mood, the willingness to receive goods is not good, today's transaction situation is significantly lighter than yesterday.

 

Zinc price: overnight, zinc received a small positive line, attached to the shadow line on the 40-day EMA suppression, short position reduction to improve the up of the zinc, the action on the zinc is still to be considered. Overnight Shanghai zinc as a whole around the 20-day moving average, supply recovery has not been reflected, rigid demand purchasing still contribute part of the consumption, or give bulls a certain amount of kinetic energy.

 

Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2420-2470 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1909 contract or operation in the vicinity of 19200-19700 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic increase by 90%

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