[July 18 SMM lead internal morning meeting record]

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that the Federal Reserve Brown Book survey shows that the US economic growth has moderated, job growth has slowed, inflation has remained stable or slightly weaker, it is still difficult for enterprises to pass on the cost of higher wages and new tariffs to customers;

The number of new housing starts in the United States fell for the second month in a row in June, as the decline in apartment starts outpaced the increase in single-family housing starts.

The central bank yesterday conducted a seven-day reverse repurchase of 100 billion yuan, and today it expired without reverse repurchase, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan.

Fundamentals:

Shanghai lead continues to strengthen, holders generally actively quote shipment, among them, Shanghai market Jinsha lead to 1908 contract water 50 yuan / ton quotation, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Jijin, Wanyang, Minshan, copper crown lead to 1908 contract discount 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui quotation, while the original lead refinery bulk single mainstream quotation for SMM1# lead average price of 50 yuan / ton to Pingshui; In terms of recycled lead, the quotation of reductive lead refineries follows the market, but the refined lead refineries due to the limited demand downstream, only carefully picked according to the need, the mainstream quotation of regenerated refined lead is 100 yuan / ton of SMM1# lead average price discount; at the same time, the inquiry of downstream storage enterprises is increased, but due to the recovery of the original lead refinery maintenance, the refinery supply increment, part of the quotation discount is expanded, the downstream rigid demand procurement is more in favor of the refinery supply, the trade market has not improved for the time being. at the same time, the inquiry of downstream storage enterprises has increased, but due to the maintenance of the original lead refinery, the supply increment of the refinery has been gradually restored.

Lead price:

Lun lead broke through a new high above $2000 / tonne, with strong financial strength, in the case of the structure is still in the contango, Lun lead does not have strong fundamentals to support, only by the promotion of funds, what will be the sustainability of the? The trend of Shanghai lead for several days is more strong, but the domestic spot market transaction is light, does not support the current futures price, among which the capital interference factor is bigger, the investor needs to be careful to follow blindly, short-term pays attention to the main force further trend;

The price of SMM1# lead is expected to rise 150 to 200 yuan per ton today.