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July 16 SMM basic Metals spot Trading Day Review
Jul 17,2019 18:13CST
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Source:SMM
July 16 SMM basic Metals spot Trading Day Review
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Copper: Yapan Lun copper opened at US $5956 / ton today, copper prices slowly fluctuated back to a high of US $5979 / ton in the morning, and then the center of gravity has remained stable around US $5970 / ton until European trading, the beginning of the day is still around the daily moving average concussion, but then LME copper stocks announced an increase of more than 6, 000 tons, the fundamentals of bearish sentiment quickly pushed copper prices down, bulls closed positions, copper prices fell by $5937 / ton. At 17 to 30, bronze was down 0.24 percent at $5943.5 a tonne, with the dollar index at $97.351 and crude oil at $57.89 a barrel. Evening focus on U. S. real estate data and EIA crude oil inventory data, the dollar is now in the recovery range, as market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates slightly lower, copper prices under pressure above. At present, the center of gravity of Luntong closed negative body fell to the 5-day moving average, the KDJ index opened to turn, the short-term is expected to form a bad dead fork. Wait for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether Lentong can hold the $5930 / ton mark at night.

 

Today, Shanghai Copper main contract 1909 opened in the morning at 46840 yuan / ton, after the opening of the market trend is stable, in 46840 between 46920 yuan / ton between a narrow range of shock finishing, the center of gravity maintained around 46900 yuan / ton shock, until the afternoon. In the afternoon, the disk first maintained the concussion finishing situation, and the center of gravity remained around 46860 yuan / ton. Subsequently, it fell slightly to the lowest level of 46780 yuan / ton in the day, and recovered at the end of the day and closed at 46860 yuan / ton. It fell 90 yuan per ton, or 0.19 percent. Today, the position of the main contract increased by 906 to 246000, mainly by short positions, while trading volume increased by 53000 to 175000. The Shanghai Copper Index lost 3120 positions to 573000 today, mainly reflected in the month's 08 contract positions, while trading volume increased by 76000 to 290000. The overall performance of Shanghai copper today was volatile, mainly due to weaker market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates. Today, the US dollar hit the 97.5 mark, and copper prices were weak under pressure. The trend of crude oil stabilized today, with further attention to the contradiction between the United States and Iraq, as well as the changes in EIA crude oil stocks announced tonight, which form a guide to the further trend of copper prices. At present, Shanghai copper is overcast, supported by the EMA at the bottom, the 60-day EMA above, the opening of the KDJ index, and a small negative copper price on the technical side. In the evening, wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai Copper can stand at the 46800 yuan / ton gate.

 

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot on the current month's contract quoted 20 yuan / ton to 80 yuan / ton water, flat water copper transaction price between 46840 yuan between a narrow range of shock finishing, the center of gravity maintained in the vicinity of 46900 yuan / ton shock, until the afternoon. In the afternoon, the disk first maintained the concussion finishing situation, and the center of gravity remained around 46860 yuan / ton. Subsequently, it fell slightly to the lowest level of 46780 yuan / ton in the day, and recovered at the end of the day and closed at 46860 yuan / ton. It fell 90 yuan per ton, or 0.19 percent. Today, the position of the main contract increased by 906 to 246000, mainly by short positions, while trading volume increased by 53000 to 175000. The Shanghai Copper Index lost 3120 positions to 573000 today, mainly reflected in the month's 08 contract positions, while trading volume increased by 76000 to 290000. The overall performance of Shanghai copper today was volatile, mainly due to weaker market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates. Today, the US dollar hit the 97.5 mark, and copper prices were weak under pressure. The trend of crude oil stabilized today, with further attention to the contradiction between the United States and Iraq, as well as the changes in EIA crude oil stocks announced tonight, which form a guide to the further trend of copper prices. At present, Shanghai copper is overcast, supported by the EMA at the bottom, the 60-day EMA above, the opening of the KDJ index, and a small negative copper price on the technical side. In the evening, wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai Copper can stand at the 46800 yuan / ton gate.

 

Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is 20 yuan / ton to 80 yuan / ton, the transaction price of flat water copper is 46840 yuan / ton ~ 46900 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of copper is 46900 yuan / ton ~ 46940 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper continued the concussion pattern, continued to revolve around 46800 yuan / ton first-line finishing. Morning market holders quoted water 20 to 80 yuan / ton, flat water copper water 20 yuan / ton first ushered in a wave of positive trading, the transaction is OK, and then flat water copper is generally priced around 30 yuan / ton; Good copper tries to follow, but good copper stops at 90 yuan per ton of water. Although there is an offer, it is still difficult to make a general deal. Most of the transactions are concentrated in 70 yuan to 80 yuan per ton of water, and the downstream buying is weak. Wet copper quotations maintain a discount of 40 to 20 yuan / ton range shock. After yesterday's traders received goods at a lower price, today, although traders still have the willingness to receive goods, it is more difficult to have room for price reduction. Most of the holders are unwilling to ship at a low price. Although the market inquiry is positive, the actual transaction is weaker than yesterday. The market activity is also lower than yesterday, and the market is obviously deadlocked again. Afternoon market prices continue to maintain, the overall market trading sentiment is suppressed by the high water, holders are still unwilling to adjust prices, the offer is basically the same as in the morning. In the afternoon, copper water 30-40 yuan / ton, good copper 70-80 yuan / ton, transaction price in the range of 46780 yuan / ton-46880 yuan / ton.

 

 

Aluminum: Lun Al opened at US $1844 per ton in the morning. In Asia, Lun Aluminum remained volatile above its 5-day moving average, hitting a high of $1846 a tonne, trading at $1842.5 a tonne as of 15: 00. In Europe, the dollar rallied, the rally weakened and the center of gravity shifted downward, hitting an intraday low of $1837.5 as of 17: 48. With the upward movement of the 5-day moving average, the operating range of Lun Al is gradually narrowed, and the pressure above 1850 US dollars / ton is larger without obvious news in the short term. In the absence of external macro interference, Lun Al is expected to maintain a narrow range of oscillations in the evening.

 

Shanghai Aluminum main 1908 contract opened in the morning at 13880 yuan / ton. After the opening of the market, the bulls actively reduced their positions, and Shanghai Aluminum went down to the lower 5-day moving average, followed by short positions, Shanghai Aluminum rose slightly, and left the market in the afternoon. The low position reached 13830 yuan / ton, and closed at 13865 yuan / ton at the end of the day. Today, the main contract completed the month, Shanghai Aluminum 1908 contract position decreased by 9866 hands to 173190 hands, trading volume increased by 22432 to 50742 hands. Shanghai Aluminum 1909 contract position increased by 12646 hands to 224140 hands, trading volume increased by 26302 hands to 57138 hands. The Shanghai Aluminum Index increased its position by 4000 hands to 682218, mainly for short positions. Short-term fundamentals have not changed, on the one hand, the recent decline in alumina electricity prices brought costs down, and consumption weakened in the third quarter, on the other hand, for the end of the third quarter consumption is still optimistic. Short-term Shanghai aluminum is still dominated by interval concussion. Concerned about tomorrow's social aluminum ingot inventory growth, if the increase in Shanghai aluminum also has the possibility of a downward shift in the center of gravity.

 

Spot market, aluminum futures opening performance of the first suppression and then rise. The transaction price between Shanghai and Wuxi is between 13830 and 13850 yuan / ton, and the price is between 20 yuan and 10 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as yesterday. The transaction price in Hangzhou is between 13850 and 13860 yuan / ton. Early opening aluminum down, the holder delivery is very active, forming a more and less situation, driven by the receiving rhythm of a large household, the market trading is active, the transaction is better, with the floating of aluminum futures, the shipping price of the holder has increased, and the middleman's willingness to replenish the goods has converged at a high price, and the trading between buyers and sellers has begun to show a stalemate and a decline in trading activity. Downstream today is still on-demand procurement, because the spot price has no advantage over yesterday, wait-and-see mood has not changed, the status of receiving goods is almost the same as yesterday. The overall transaction in East China today is average. In the afternoon, the aluminum sank, the end of the market rose, the holder quoted price concentrated in the vicinity of 13830 yuan / ton, pasted 10 yuan / ton to the disk, but there was almost no deal.

 

 

Lead: within a day, Lun lead opened at US $1982.5 / ton. In the Asian session, at the beginning of the day, Lun lead was basically consolidated along the US $1985 / ton line, and entered the European session. Some short sellers chose to stop loss and left the market. Lun lead once climbed to US $1991.5 / tonne, but the US dollar rebounded to US $1991.5 / tonn. as of 16 / 34, Lun lead temporarily closed at US $1984 / ton, up US $3.50 / ton, an increase of 0.18%. Lun lead temporarily closed on the film Xiaoyang line, and the high point of the film line is lower than yesterday, indicating that there is an insurmountable gap in the 1990 yuan / ton line, coupled with the 5-day moving average upward trend slows down, night Lun lead or continue to bear pressure at the $2000 / ton gate operation.

 

Within a day, Shanghai lead 1909 contract opened at 16300 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead basically under pressure at the daily average, and around the 16295 yuan / ton line operation, finally closed at 16305 yuan / ton, up 130 yuan / ton, up 0.8%, and the position increased 4118 hands to 51850 hands. Shanghai lead newspaper close up on the film Xiaoyang line, on many times are fruitless, 16300 yuan / ton platform pressure is stronger, although the bulls continue to increase the position, but the opening strength is far less than yesterday, and the fundamentals did not appear to support the strong lead price news stimulation, Shanghai lead or continue to bear pressure operation at night, vigilance may enter the "high position will fall for a long time" spell.

 

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 16345 yuan / ton, 1908 contract water 50 yuan / ton quotation; Jiangsu and Zhejiang Jijin, Wanyang, Minshan, copper crown lead 16275 to 16295 yuan / ton, 1908 contract discount 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui quotation. The futures market continues to strengthen, and the holders generally actively quote and ship the goods, and at the same time, the inquiry of the downstream storage enterprises has increased, but due to the recovery of the original lead refineries one after another, the supply increment of the refineries, some of the quotations have been expanded, and the downstream rigid demand procurement prefers the source of refinery goods, and the trade market transaction has not improved for the time being.

 

Guangdong market Nanhua lead 16300 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 50 yuan / ton; southern gold sand 16310 to 16340 yuan / ton, 1908 contract water 20 to 50 yuan / ton; lead shock higher, downstream cautious procurement, market trading dismal. Henan Yuguang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Wanyang 16220 16250 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 30 yuan to flat water quotation; Jinli 16180 to 16200 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton to 70 yuan / ton offer; small plant 16150 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead discount 100 yuan / ton; lead price shock higher, storage enterprises wait and see carefully, some of which are mainly purchased by traders. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16250 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat water quotation (source of traders); Hunan Jingui 16200 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price discount 50 yuan / ton; Jiangtong 16270 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price rise water 20 yuan / ton quotation; Yunnan small factory lead 16000 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price discount 250yuan / ton; market demand is still relatively low, storage enterprises procurement is extremely cautious, market trading is bleak.

 

 

Zinc: Geneva zinc opened at US $2466.5 / tonne. After a brief touch of zinc at the beginning of the day, it delayed the rapid decline of the daily average and found support at the US $2450 / ton line. After a small return to the daily average, it was arranged and operated near the daily average. It coincided with the pressure on the daily average. Under pressure, the daily average was lowered to US $2448 / ton. Entering the European trading period, the US finger went lower and the zinc was up US $2468 / ton, and the high level was blocked and slightly retreated. At 16-26, it closed down $2457.5, or 0.34 per cent, at $8.50 a tonne. Geneva zinc positive and negative, the lower support in the 20-day EMA operation, within the day LME zinc inventory performance stopped increasing, but the decline was not as expected, superimposed macro positive mood gradually dissipated, Lun zinc action can still be considered, night or around the middle track of Brin Road.

 

The main 1909 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 19410 yuan / ton within a day, and the short position pushed the zinc price to 19370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, with an operating range of no more than 30 yuan / ton, which dragged down the Shanghai zinc probe by 19325 yuan / ton in the afternoon, and rose slightly at the end of the day, closing up 19355 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton, up 0.57% from the previous transaction. Within the day, Shanghai zinc received a cross star, attached to the shadow line to stab the 20-day EMA suppression intensity, macro mood dissipated under the Shanghai zinc return to its own fundamental operation, the domestic accumulation is expected to increase, consumption off-season signs are significant, bulls still do not have sufficient confidence, the day up mainly to short positions, night Shanghai zinc or run near the 20-day moving average.

 

Shanghai 0# zinc mainstream transaction 1947-19500 yuan / ton, Shuangyan and Chihong 1980-19550 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary August water 60-70 yuan / ton; Shuangyan and Chihong reported 70-80 yuan / ton and 110-120 yuan / ton, respectively. 1 # the mainstream transaction was between 1950 and 19400 yuan per ton. After the center of gravity of zinc operation moved up, the intention of market shipment improved obviously. Morning trading chief single trading dominant, to the average price of the net transaction is relatively active, Shengtianshui 60 to 70 yuan / ton or so stable, low-price transaction activity is higher. Entering the second trading period, the market is still dominated by shipment, after loose circulation, the receiver intends to rise 60 yuan / ton procurement, while the market mainstream quotation continues to rise 70 yuan / ton, the transfer parties are divided, but the transaction is concentrated in the low price range, downstream every rise and wait-and-see, within the day inquiry procurement are cooling, the overall transaction is slightly less than yesterday.

 

Guangdong 0 # zinc mainstream trading in 1910 1970 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc 1909 contract discount 50-30 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai market since yesterday discount 130 yuan / ton narrowed to discount 110 yuan / ton. Refineries actively ship goods, and there is an abundant supply of goods in the market. Holders are mainly shipping, in the morning concentrated quotation in the average price of-20 to the average price of-40 yuan / ton, downstream wait-and-see mood is stronger, few receive goods, enter the second trading period market quotation concentrated in the 09 contract discount 30 yuan / ton or so, however, the delivery volume is still relatively limited, follow-up transactions are more concentrated in the 09 contract discount 50-40 yuan / ton around. Overall, today's upstream holders actively ship, traders contribute to the main trading, downstream more wait-and-see, the overall market transaction is worse than yesterday.

 

The mainstream of 0 # zinc ingots in Tianjin market was traded at 1950 to 20380 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 0 # ordinary brand was sold at 1950 to 19500 yuan / ton, and the rising water of 1908 contract was about 60 to 80 yuan / ton. Tianjin market maintained near Pingshui compared with Shanghai stock market. Disk upward, refinery active shipment, market supply circulation is more abundant. The early quotation of the holder focused on the rising water of 60 to 120 yuan / ton for the 08 contract, but the market transaction did not appear. Some of the subsequent holders reduced the source price of high-priced brands to around 40 yuan / ton, and the market transaction improved slightly, mainly focused on the supply of high-priced brands after the price adjustment, while other brands contributed a small part of the transaction. Overall, in the early downstream buying on the follow-up consumption overdraft, superimposed disk upstream, downstream waiting for a strong wait-and-see mood, the willingness to receive goods is not good, today's transaction situation is significantly lighter than yesterday. 0 # Zijin, Hongye, lark, Chihong, Xiyan, etc., were sold in 1950-19500 yuan / ton, and 1 # Zijin, Chihong, Hongye, etc., were sold in 19400-19450 yuan / ton.

 

 

Tin: after the opening of the electronic disk of US $17950 / ton today, the Asian session was generally maintained at a volatile finish near the opening price. After the opening of European trading, starting from US $17900 / ton, it started a concussion upward trend, breaking through US $18000 / ton in one fell swoop, and fell back after reaching US $18070 / tonne. As of 17-30, the latest price of Rensi was US $18025 / tonne, showing a small positive line, which was near the 5-day moving average. Lunxi is expected to hold the support below and try to effectively stand above the $18000 mark. This evening, we can focus on the annual monthly rate of new housing starts in the United States in June (%) and the monthly rate of construction permits in the United States in June (%).

 

Shanghai tin main 1909 contract last night after the opening of 134500 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the market was suppressed by short forces quickly fell to the night low of 133080 yuan / ton, hit bottom rose to 134370 yuan / ton, and then until the end of night trading, due to the long departure of Shanghai tin small shock down. After the opening of 133500 yuan / ton in early trading this morning, showing a concussive upward trend, erasing most of the decline in last night's trading, it finally closed at 134160 yuan / ton, down 730yuan / ton, or 0.54 per cent. The trading volume was 15466, a decrease of 13180. The position was reduced by 30494 hands. Today, the long and empty forces are intertwined, the overall center of gravity of Shanghai tin remains stable, and the support below Shanghai tin is expected to be around 132000 yuan / ton.

 

Spot market, today's mainstream transaction price of 134000 to 135300 yuan / ton, there is a small amount of 133500 yuan / ton low price source in the morning market. Today, the buying trend of downstream enterprises is still relatively weak, and the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak. Set Yunxi rising water 1100 to 1000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud character rising water 600 to 1000 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 600 yuan / ton-flat water.

 

 

Nickel: the nickel sub-plate opened at $13945 a tonne today. Before noon, the nickel was supported by a line of $13900 per ton, with a focus on a narrow range of concussion of $13950 per ton. In the afternoon, Lennie once again started a sharp rally, breaking through US $14000 / ton, hitting a new high of US $14225 / ton, and then retreating slightly, with a narrow range of shocks around US $14150 / ton. As of 1700, it was quoted at US $14120 per ton. Lun Ni today temporarily closed at the small positive line, has closed for 11 consecutive days, there is no other resistance above, the evening is expected to run at a concussion above the US $14000 / ton pass. Night focus on the total number of construction permits in the United States in June and the total number of new housing starts in June (10,000 households); pay attention to the trend of the dollar.

 

Shanghai nickel 1910 opened today at 109960 yuan / ton, before noon, shanghai nickel in the daily average below the center of gravity around 109600 yuan / ton first-line concussion finishing. In the afternoon, multi-hair strength increased positions, Shanghai nickel concussion upward, breaking the daily average, touch high 111600 yuan / ton, finally closed at 111420 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price rose 3720 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.45%, trading volume increased 121000 hands to 410000 hands, position volume increased 17798 hands to 220312 hands. Shanghai nickel is still leading the rise, the first increase in non-ferrous, Shanghai nickel index today capital inflow of 256 million yuan, ranking first in non-ferrous capital inflow. Shanghai Ni 1908 contract positions fell by 8364 to 128814 today, while trading volume increased by 53000 to 958000. Today, the Shanghai nickel 1910 contract closed at the lower shadow line, the Xiaoyang line, and rose late in the day after the horizontal plate concussion. Shanghai nickel is expected to run above the 110000 yuan / ton gate in the evening.

 

SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 109150 to 110400 yuan / ton. The discount of Russian nickel is about 300yuan / ton than that of Shanghai nickel 1908, which is narrower than that of yesterday. Yesterday, there were downstream steel mills in the 108000 pass near the market procurement, trading volume is considerable, transaction improvement. Import profits and losses continue to be larger, flows into the domestic source of goods is not much, today's nickel plate holders have narrowed Russian nickel discount, spot feedback, today's nickel plate transactions are not as good as yesterday. Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 contract generally reported a rise of 800 to 1, 000 yuan / ton, slightly narrower than yesterday. Jinchuan nickel transactions continue to be light, some holders down Jinchuan rising water, but the overall volume is small, mostly up to 1000 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company was quoted at 110500 yuan / ton, 3000 yuan / ton higher than yesterday, and the mainstream transaction was 109100 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, nickel prices continued to rise, close to the 110000 barrier, today's nickel plate discount 400 yuan / ton has a small amount of transactions, as a whole, Jinchuan company actively shipped, the mainstream transaction at 109400 to 110600 yuan / ton.

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