SMM7 17: Shanghai nickel led the rise of non-ferrous metals again today, up as much as 3.46%, 08 contracts rose for six consecutive trading days, and hit a new high of 111400 / ton since September last year, mainly affected by the earthquake, the ban on nickel export policy and other factors. Shanghai Copper closed down 0.19% at 46860; Shanghai Aluminum was flat at 13865; Shanghai Zinc closed up 0.57% at 19335; Shanghai lead closed up 0.8% at 16305; Shanghai Tin closed up 0.36% at 134160. (unit: yuan / ton)

Shanghai nickel rise in addition to foreign earthquakes, export restrictions and other factors, its own low inventory is also a driver. With the development of the market, the promotion of the capital side is also one of the factors of the sharp rise in prices. In the absence of obvious negative factors, prices are still expected to rise.

In terms of black, iron ore prices fluctuated up and down after opening low on a daily basis, and finally closed down 1.15%; now traders' willingness to ship is stronger than in the early stage, coupled with policy factors, there is little room for further improvement in the future, and the situation of strong shock is expected to be maintained. Thread, hot coil in the off-season of consumption, currently following the trend of iron ore, steel mill profits are relatively optimistic for a period of time in the future.

According to the official website of the Dalian Commodity Futures Exchange, the Dalian Commodity Futures Exchange has decided to raise the iron ore handling fee from July 18, 2019 (starting tonight). The iron ore 1909 contract day trading fee was raised from 1 / 10 / 10 / 10,000 to 2. 5 / 10 / 10, and the non-day trading fee was 1 / 10 / 10, 000 / 10 / 10 / 10, 000 / 10, 000 / 10, 000 / 10, 000 / 10, 000 / 10, 000 / 10 / 10, respectively. The standard of intra-day trading fee for iron ore futures 2001 contract is adjusted to 1.5 / 10,000 of the transaction amount, and the standard of non-intra-day trading fee is 1 / 10 / 10, 000 of the transaction amount.

In the last period of crude oil, oil prices fell 3.94 percent to 436.2 yuan per ton. Iran has taken a turn for the better, leading to a sharp drop in crude oil.

Trump said on Tuesday that much progress has been made in relations between the United States and Iran and that he does not want regime change in Iran. Trump did not provide details of the progress, but U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo said at the meeting that Iran has expressed its willingness to negotiate its missile program.

In addition, the US API crude oil stocks fell by 1.4 million barrels in the week of July 12, which is expected to decrease by 3.375 million barrels, compared with the previous value of 8.129 million barrels, focusing on the EIA inventory data released at 22:30 Beijing time.

SMM analyst's brief comment on July 17

Copper: today, Shanghai Copper main contract 1909 opened in the morning at 46840 yuan / ton, after the opening of the market trend is stable, in 46840 between 46920 yuan / ton between a narrow range of shock finishing, the center of gravity maintained at 46900 yuan / ton shock, until the afternoon. In the afternoon, the disk first maintained the concussion finishing situation, and the center of gravity remained around 46860 yuan / ton. Subsequently, it fell slightly to the lowest level of 46780 yuan / ton in the day, and recovered at the end of the day and closed at 46860 yuan / ton. It fell 90 yuan per ton, or 0.19 percent. Today, the position of the main contract increased by 906 to 246000, mainly by short positions, while trading volume increased by 53000 to 175000. The Shanghai Copper Index lost 3120 positions to 573000 today, mainly reflected in the month's 08 contract positions, while trading volume increased by 76000 to 290000. The overall performance of Shanghai copper today was volatile, mainly due to weaker market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates. Today, the US dollar hit the 97.5 mark, and copper prices were weak under pressure. The trend of crude oil stabilized today, with further attention to the contradiction between the United States and Iraq, as well as the changes in EIA crude oil stocks announced tonight, which form a guide to the further trend of copper prices. At present, Shanghai copper is overcast, supported by the EMA at the bottom, the 60-day EMA above, the opening of the KDJ index, and a small negative copper price on the technical side. In the evening, wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai Copper can stand at the 46800 yuan / ton gate.

Lead: Shanghai lead 1909 contract opened at 16300 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead basically under pressure at the daily average line, and around 16295 yuan / ton line operation, finally closed at 16305 yuan / ton, up 130 yuan / ton, up 0.8%, and the position increased 4118 hands to 51850 hands. Shanghai lead newspaper close up on the film Xiaoyang line, on many times are fruitless, 16300 yuan / ton platform pressure is stronger, although bulls continue to increase positions, but the strength of opening positions is far less than yesterday, and the fundamentals did not appear to support the strong news stimulation of lead prices, Shanghai lead or continue to bear pressure at night, and may even enter the "high horizontal and long must fall" spell.

Zinc: the main 1909 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 19410 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day. At the beginning of the day, the short position significantly pushed the zinc price to 19370 yuan / ton, and the operating range was not more than 30 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the gap was much flat, dragging down 19325 yuan / ton of zinc exploration in Shanghai. At the end of the day, it rose slightly, closing up 19355 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton, or 0.57%, compared with the previous transaction. Shanghai zinc received a cross star in the day, attached to the shadow line to stab the 20-day EMA suppression, macro mood dissipated under the Shanghai zinc return to its own fundamental operation, the domestic accumulation is expected to increase, consumption off-season signs are significant, bulls still do not have sufficient confidence, the day to reduce positions mainly short, night Shanghai zinc or run near the 20-day moving average.

In the process of updating.

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