7.17 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Market surface: yesterday, London aluminum opened at US $1842 / ton, closed at US $1844 / ton, up US $1 / ton, up 0.05%, mainly due to short position reduction; the overnight Shanghai Aluminium main Company 1909 contract opened at 13895 yuan / ton, slightly higher 13930 yuan / ton, finally closed at 13905 yuan / ton.

Macro: overseas, the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in June was higher than expected, with a forecast of 0.4 percent, with a forecast of 0.2 percent and a previous value of 0.4 percent. This bright data boosted the US Index's overnight strength; the trade account (100 million euros) after the May quarter in the euro zone posted a public value of 202, with an expected value of 178, with a previous value of 153; and the Baltic dry bulk freight index rose for the sixth day in a row to 2011 points, the highest since January 2014. On the domestic side, Li Keqiang presided over a forum of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing that the implementation of measures such as larger-scale tax cuts and fee cuts and targeted rate cuts in the first half of the year have played a key role in responding to external challenges and stabilizing the operation of the economy. It is necessary to persist in implementing a proactive fiscal policy, a prudent monetary policy, and a policy of giving priority to employment, adjust and fine-tune at the right time, and make good use of counter-cyclical adjustment tools.

Fundamentals: on the supply side, Rio Tinto's Becancour electrolytic aluminum smelter may resume full production in 2020 with a production capacity of 112000 tons; in addition, Rio Tinto's 2019 production plan remains unchanged, with bauxite output expected to be 5600-59 million tons, electrolytic aluminum production expected to be 320-3.4 million tons, and alumina production expected to be 810-8.4 million tons. 000807.SZ disclosed its performance forecast on the evening of July 14, and the company expects a net profit of about 162 million yuan in the first half of 2019, an increase of about 236 percent over the same period last year. At the cost end, yesterday SMM alumina region weighted quotation of 2547 yuan / ton, continued to drop 35 yuan / ton, Australian alumina FOB price of US $300,300 / ton.

Spot: the transaction price between Shanghai and Wuxi on Tuesday morning is between 13830 and 13840 yuan / ton, between 10 yuan / ton and flat water in that month, up nearly 30 yuan / ton from the previous day, and the transaction price in Hangzhou is between 13850 and 13870 yuan / ton. In the morning, due to the holder holding part of the low-priced purchase source, active shipment, some middlemen replenish the goods to receive more active, but because the market large households receive few goods, so the overall transaction in East China is slightly lower than on Monday. With the rapid rise of aluminum futures, the market quotation rose, began to focus on 13850 to 13870 yuan / ton, pasted 20 to 10 yuan / ton, although there is an offer, but the market wait-and-see mood rose again, fear of high obvious, there are few transactions, at this time the transaction heat decreased rapidly. Downstream to maintain the pace of on-demand procurement, flat delivery. The overall deal in East China on Tuesday was average, not as good as Monday.

Summary: the domestic alumina and other raw material prices continue to fall so that the cost side is still in the downward channel, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has become exhausted, and the short-term aluminum price rebound fluency is limited, but based on the expectation of the consumption peak season in September, it is suggested that the layout of 13500 yuan to 13800 yuan per ton should be attempted, and the positive position inside and outside the borrow, which can pay attention to 0912 contract, should continue to be held, but it is not recommended to open a new one.

(SMM Li Hao 021 5166 6863)