Macro Roundup (Jul 17)-Shanghai Metals Market

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Macro Roundup (Jul 17)

Data Analysis 09:24:23AM Jul 17, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Jul 17 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar gained as surprisingly strong growth in US retail sales in June eased worries about the American economy and trimmed expectations the Federal Reserve may embark on a deep interest rate cut later this month.

Base metals ended mostly higher as LME nickel rose 2%, zinc climbed 1%, tin increased 0.3%, aluminium and lead nudged up, while copper slid 0.6%. SHFE nickel advanced 2.1%, zinc grew 1.1%, lead went up 0.8%, aluminium rose 0.1%, while tin lost 0.1%, and copper shed 0.2%. 

The US Commerce Department said on Tuesday retail sales rose 0.4% in June, compared with an expected rise of 0.2%, as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and a variety of other goods. Data for May was revised slightly down to show retail sales rising 0.4%, instead of increasing 0.5% as previously reported.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales jumped 0.7% last month after an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in May. These so-called core retail sales, which correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, were previously reported to have increased 0.4% in May.

“The retail sales data gives you comfort that the domestic economy is in good shape and the consumer is in a good spot," said Michael Gapen, chief US economist at Barclays. 

“Business spending, business confidence and manufacturing production are where the economy is slowing and if the Fed is looking to insulate the economy, some cuts to support financial market conditions and keep the domestic economy strong is still a reasonable response,” Gapen added. 

The cost of US imports fell in June by the steepest amount in six months, reflecting lower oil prices and a weaker global economy.

Official data showed on Tuesday that the import price index declined 0.9% in June, the first monthly decrease since the index fell 1.4% in December 2018. Import prices decreased 2% on a yearly basis in June, the largest year-over-year drop since the index fell 2.2% from August 2015 to August 2016.

US industrial production was flat in June, slightly below the expected gain of 0.1%, as a slump in utilities was offset by gains in output by factories and mining.

The eurozone’s trade surplus with the rest of the world widened in May, official data showed on Tuesday.

According to initial estimates from Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistics office, the 19-strong eurozone recorded a €23 billion trade surplus with the rest of the world in May, compared to €16.9 billion a year earlier. Imports were €180.3 billion, up 4.2%, while exports rose 7.1% to €203.4 billion.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday that US crude supplies fell by 1.4 million barrels for the week ended July 12. The API also reportedly showed a stockpile decline of 476,000 barrels for gasoline, but distillate inventories jumped by 6.2 million barrels.

Day ahead

Economic data slated for release today include the eurozone consumer price index (CPI) for June, the US new house start, building permits for June, as well as its weekly crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Key Words:  Macroeconomics 

Macro Roundup (Jul 17)

Data Analysis 09:24:23AM Jul 17, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Jul 17 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar gained as surprisingly strong growth in US retail sales in June eased worries about the American economy and trimmed expectations the Federal Reserve may embark on a deep interest rate cut later this month.

Base metals ended mostly higher as LME nickel rose 2%, zinc climbed 1%, tin increased 0.3%, aluminium and lead nudged up, while copper slid 0.6%. SHFE nickel advanced 2.1%, zinc grew 1.1%, lead went up 0.8%, aluminium rose 0.1%, while tin lost 0.1%, and copper shed 0.2%. 

The US Commerce Department said on Tuesday retail sales rose 0.4% in June, compared with an expected rise of 0.2%, as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and a variety of other goods. Data for May was revised slightly down to show retail sales rising 0.4%, instead of increasing 0.5% as previously reported.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales jumped 0.7% last month after an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in May. These so-called core retail sales, which correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, were previously reported to have increased 0.4% in May.

“The retail sales data gives you comfort that the domestic economy is in good shape and the consumer is in a good spot," said Michael Gapen, chief US economist at Barclays. 

“Business spending, business confidence and manufacturing production are where the economy is slowing and if the Fed is looking to insulate the economy, some cuts to support financial market conditions and keep the domestic economy strong is still a reasonable response,” Gapen added. 

The cost of US imports fell in June by the steepest amount in six months, reflecting lower oil prices and a weaker global economy.

Official data showed on Tuesday that the import price index declined 0.9% in June, the first monthly decrease since the index fell 1.4% in December 2018. Import prices decreased 2% on a yearly basis in June, the largest year-over-year drop since the index fell 2.2% from August 2015 to August 2016.

US industrial production was flat in June, slightly below the expected gain of 0.1%, as a slump in utilities was offset by gains in output by factories and mining.

The eurozone’s trade surplus with the rest of the world widened in May, official data showed on Tuesday.

According to initial estimates from Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistics office, the 19-strong eurozone recorded a €23 billion trade surplus with the rest of the world in May, compared to €16.9 billion a year earlier. Imports were €180.3 billion, up 4.2%, while exports rose 7.1% to €203.4 billion.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday that US crude supplies fell by 1.4 million barrels for the week ended July 12. The API also reportedly showed a stockpile decline of 476,000 barrels for gasoline, but distillate inventories jumped by 6.2 million barrels.

Day ahead

Economic data slated for release today include the eurozone consumer price index (CPI) for June, the US new house start, building permits for June, as well as its weekly crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Key Words:  Macroeconomics