[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]

On the 16th of SMM7,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: us Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he could talk to Chinese officials this week to discuss trade issues, if effective or travel to Beijing for talks. Kudlow expects China to announce large-scale purchases of US agricultural products. The people's Bank of China announced that the central bank accounted for 21.2 trillion yuan of foreign exchange at the end of June, down 6.2 billion yuan from the previous month.

Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:

Shanghai: the center of gravity of zinc operation has moved up slightly, and the market circulation has been slightly tightened. The transaction price in the morning market is dominated by the net average price. The premium is about 60 to 70 yuan / ton in August, and the water transaction is less. The focus is about 50 yuan / ton, and the low price goods are relatively less. Enter the second trading period, because the long single brand circulation is not loose, traders low price replenishment willingness is relatively high, the market transaction price moved up to Shengshui 70 yuan / ton or so better transaction, but Shuangyan, torch and other direct docking downstream brand quotation transaction has not improved greatly, the market transaction is still contributed by traders, the transaction is not much different from last Friday.

Guangdong: refineries actively ship goods, the market supply of goods is abundant. In the morning, the holder is more confused about the quotation, the quotation is concentrated in the average price of-10 yuan / ton or so, the market transaction atmosphere is more warm, more to the contribution of traders to the main transaction. Entering the second trading period, the market quotation focused on the 08 contract discount of 40 to 50 yuan / ton, followed by the continuous concussion of the monthly difference, superimposed the trading situation of the first trading period was better, and the trading situation of the second trading period was slightly weaker. The trading situation in Guangdong today is slightly worse than that of last Friday.

Tianjin: normal shipment of refineries, the market supply of goods is more abundant. The holder quoted price early in the morning focused on the 08 contract rising water 100 180 yuan / ton, but because the Tianjin market supply this week to the warehouse more, the market supply circulation from tense to abundant, downstream delivery willingness is not good, follow-up holders once again downgraded the rising water to 90-120 yuan / ton, downstream to maintain rigid demand procurement contribution part of the transaction, the transaction is mainly concentrated in the low-price brand supply, the overall transaction is basically flat compared with last Friday.

Zinc price: overnight zinc recorded two Lianyang, the overall operation in the 10th and 20th EMA channel, overseas markets return to the back structure, LME zinc inventory continued to decline, indicating that supply contradiction is still possible. Overnight Shanghai zinc harvest two consecutive Yang, domestic inventory fell slightly, bulls into the market to boost Shanghai zinc uplink, macro sentiment dissipated after Shanghai zinc return to fundamental operation, the current fundamentals do not have bright spots, bulls confidence is still to be considered.

Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2400-2450 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1909 contract or run in the vicinity of 19000-19500 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic increase 10