SMM News: under the influence of a series of real estate regulation and control policies, the real estate market continued to cool in June. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday, in June, prices in 70 cities across the country rose and the number of cities decreased, while prices of second-hand houses in first-and second-tier cities fell back month-on-month, and prices of new and second-hand houses in first-and third-tier cities fell year-on-year. At the same time, from January to June, real estate development investment, commercial housing sales, housing enterprises in place funds and other indicators of cumulative year-on-year growth have slowed down.
Industry insiders believe that in June, there were 20 cities to reduce second-hand housing prices, this is the first time this year. Hot first-and second-tier city housing prices have once again entered the adjustment stage, if there is no obvious credit easing policy, it is expected that from July to August, national first-and second-tier city housing prices will enter the "spring cold" after "Xiaoyang spring". At the same time, the cumulative growth rate of real estate investment, sales, funds and other indicators has fallen for two months in a row, indicating that the market has cooled down. It is expected that under the background of the continued trend of tightening financing of real estate enterprises, it will affect the progress of investment and development in the future.
Second-hand rooms in first-and second-tier cities
Price increases fell back across the board
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities where house prices rose month-on-month decreased significantly, especially in the number of cities where second-hand housing prices rose 10 fewer than in May. Compared with new housing, the cooling of the second-hand housing market is more obvious, not only the number of cities where house prices are rising are reduced more, but also the increase in house prices is also down significantly.
According to a preliminary estimate, the price of second-hand housing in the four first-tier cities was flat from the previous month, rising 0.1 percent in May. Of these, Beijing and Guangzhou were flat, while Shanghai and Shenzhen both fell 0.1 per cent. The price of second-hand housing in 31 second-tier cities rose 0.3 percent, 0.2 percentage points lower than in May. The price of second-hand housing in 35 third-tier cities rose 0.7 percent from the previous month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over May.
Zhuge Housing data Research Center analyst Guoshiying believes that, on the whole, the increase in house prices in June, second-hand housing market regulation and control of the impact, confidence has declined, second-hand house prices fell slightly. In particular, the regulation and control of some hot second-tier cities increased, the price of second-hand housing fell most obviously.
"in June, the price of second-hand housing in 20 cities across the country fell for the first time this year, and hot first-and second-tier cities once again entered the adjustment stage. In the future, if there is no obvious credit easing policy, it is expected that from July to August, the country's first-and second-tier cities will once again enter the 'inverted spring cold' after 'Xiaoyang Spring'. " Zhongyuan Real Estate Chief analyst Zhang Dawei said.
Zhang Bo, chief analyst at 58 Anju Guest Room production and Research Institute, expects that the cooling of second-hand houses will continue to have a direct impact on new houses in the second half of the year, and will bring down the increase in new house prices.
Although the new home price data due to price restrictions and other reasons can no longer really reflect the market situation, but some of the leading price increases in cities still need to pay attention to, such as Xi'an new home prices rose for seven consecutive months ranked first. In addition, Hohhot ranked first in terms of year-on-year increase in second-hand housing prices for eight months in a row.
Yan Yuejin, director of research at the think tank center of the Yi Ju Research Institute, believes that in view of the continued tightening of policies in Xi'an in the near future, especially in the areas of talent settlement and purchase restrictions in the suburbs, it is expected that the subsequent increase in house prices in Xi'an will also be narrowed. From the perspective of stabilizing housing prices, it is necessary to continue to control the behavior of second-tier cities, especially talents in disguised housing speculation.
Tightening of financing environment for housing enterprises
In addition to house price data showing signs that the property market continues to cool, the cumulative growth rate of real estate investment, sales, funds and other indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday continued to decline, which also indicates that the real estate market is entering a period of adjustment.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, investment in real estate development nationwide totaled 6.1609 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.9 percent over the same period last year, down 0.3 percentage points from January to May, and new housing construction area of 1.05509 billion square meters, an increase of 10.1 percent over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points. According to the sales index, from January to June, the sales area of commercial housing was 757.86 million square meters, down 1.8 percent from the same period last year, and the decline was 0.2 percentage points higher than that from January to May. Sales of commercial housing totaled 7.0698 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6 percent over the same period last year, and the growth rate fell by 0.5 percentage points. From the perspective of capital indicators, from January to June, real estate development enterprises put in place 8.4966 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2 percent over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points lower than that from January to May.
GuoShiying believes that the cumulative growth rate of real estate development investment has continued to decline for two months in a row because the policy of land acquisition in some cities has been tightened since April, resulting in a decline in the enthusiasm of housing enterprises to take land. In addition, since the second quarter, the channels of "blood transfusion" in the property market have been closely watched by the financial regulatory authorities, the financing environment of real estate enterprises has been further tightened, and the tightening of capital level of real estate enterprises will affect the progress of investment and development in the future.
From the sales area index, there has been a negative growth for five months in a row. Yan Yuejin believes that this shows that the market has cooled down, although the "small Yangchun" began to appear in March, but the market data from May to June show that there is resistance to the recovery of the property market, especially some third-and fourth-tier cities are entering the cooling channel.
In addition, from the housing enterprises in place capital indicators, the slowdown in growth and the current financial risk prevention environment is closely related. Yan Yuejin pointed out that since May, the financing pressure of many housing enterprises has increased significantly, and the capital level has been slightly tightened, which will also affect the land investment and housing sales strategies of housing enterprises. At present, trust financing and the issuance of foreign debt are significantly tightened, and a similar tightening trend is expected to continue until the fourth quarter of this year.
However, with regard to the next stage of real estate investment, Mao Shengyong, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the General Statistics Department of the National economy, said that on the one hand, urbanization continues to advance, and there is still rigid demand and improvement demand, which is a support. On the other hand, the concept of "housing does not speculate" is more and more deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, coupled with the emphasis on "policy because of the city" and the main responsibility of the city government. The next stage of the real estate market stable land price, stable housing prices, stable expectations can be achieved. There will be no ups and downs in real estate investment.
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