[SMM Daily Review] risk sentiment boosted metals to rise 2.4 per cent in Shanghai and nickel.

SMM7 15: Shanghai nickel led the rise in non-ferrous metals today, up 2.4%, and hit a 4-month high of 106620 yuan / ton, mainly affected by the earthquake, the nickel export ban policy and other factors. In addition, the Fed's easing tendencies boosted sentiment, with all three major US stock indices hitting record highs and metals markets clearly feeling the warmth of a boost in risk sentiment. In other metals, Shanghai Copper closed 0.51% higher at 46910, Shanghai Aluminum up 0.84% at 13865, Shanghai Zinc up 0.76% at 1920, Shanghai lead down 0.12% at 16060, and Shanghai Tin closing 0.86% lower at 133220. (unit: yuan / ton)

It is reported that North Maluku Island, one of the main nickel producing areas in Indonesia, suffered another 7.2 magnitude earthquake on the 14th, causing market supply concerns, and Shanghai nickel rose sharply to break through the high level of the year. According to public information, North Maluku Island is one of the main producing areas of nickel resources in Indonesia, including Weda Bay, Indonesia's largest nickel-iron increment project in 2020. In addition, Jinchuan and Newcrest Mining in Indonesia also have minerals here. The earthquake, which is so close to the main producing areas, is bound to cause some supply worries.

In addition, Indonesia's recent announcement of a new mining ban plan, the Philippines' second mining review and other good news may boost bulls' enthusiasm in the short term. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources confirmed that Indonesia is expected to stop exporting raw ore in 2022 because 41 smelters are nearing completion and will be operational in the short term. Earlier, in 2009, after the Indonesian government issued decree No. 4, Indonesia should have stopped the export of raw ore. But given the situation of smelters in Indonesia at the time, the ban had to be delayed. But now, as domestic smelters begin to operate on a large scale, superimposed downstream terminals can digest smelting products, so Indonesia has formed a complete supply chain.

In terms of the black system, the black system has come out of the trend of bottoming out and rebounding. Iron ore closed up 2.34% at 895; thread closed up 0.95% at 4030; hot coil rose 1.17% to 3898; coking coal closed down 0.14% at 1398; coke closed up 2.82% at 2167.5 (yuan / ton). In terms of oil prices, crude oil closed down 0.81% at 454.5 (in yuan / ton).

GDP data released within a day showed that China's GDP grew by 6.2 percent in the second quarter to 45.1 trillion yuan; retail sales of consumer goods totaled 3.3878 trillion yuan in June, an increase of 8.8 percent over the same period last year; investment in real estate development in the first half of the year was 6.1609 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.9 percent over the same period last year; national investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 29.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.8 percent over the same period last year. In June, the added value of industries above scale increased by 6.3% in real terms compared with the same period last year. The figures were flat or better than expected, boosting sentiment in favour of black and risk sentiment in the stock market.

SMM analyst's brief comment on July 15

Copper: today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 46730 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening, it reached the lowest level of 46620 yuan / ton in the day, and then the bulls actively entered the market, and the market rose all the way to the highest level of 47000 yuan / ton in the day. 47000 yuan / ton gate. After the high and small consolidation, the center of gravity of the disk continued to move down, and settled between 46830 and 46940 yuan / ton, and closed at 46910 yuan / ton at the end of the plate. It rose 250 yuan per ton, or 0.54 percent. Today, Shanghai Copper's main contract position increased by 14000 hands to 250000 hands, while trading volume increased by 38000 hands to 154000 hands. Today, the Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by about 10, 000 to 593000, while trading volume increased by 49000 to 275000. Today, Shanghai copper in the non-ferrous plate capital inflow bright eye, up to 218 million, mainly bullish copper price trend, positive layout. The overall performance of Shanghai copper today was volatile, mainly due to better-than-expected data on the Chinese economy, GDP data, industrial value added and retail sales of consumer goods, which were positive for commodity trends. At the same time, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, the dollar also maintained a volatile downward trend today, the copper price has also been supported. Today, Shanghai copper closing entity Dayang column, K line formed 4 Lianyang trend, below by the 10-day EMA support, KDJ index opening to expand strong, MACD index red column elongated, technical good copper price. In the evening, wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai copper can stand firm and rush to the 47000 yuan / ton gate level.

Today, the Shanghai Copper 1907 contract faces delivery, opening at 46550 yuan / ton in the morning, then sliding to the lowest level of 46450 yuan / ton in the day, and then rising all the way to a high of 46800 yuan / ton. Then the center of gravity moved down to 46720 yuan / ton and closed at 46670 yuan / ton at the end of the day. Settled at 46570 yuan / ton, delivery volume reached 12475 tons, the current 1907-1908 contract price difference of 80 yuan / ton.

Zinc: the main 1909 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 19105 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day. At the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc opened high and low, and the operating center of gravity went down to 19220 yuan / ton. Later, Xu Li returned to try to detect the suppression of the 10-day moving average, but failed to do so. The center of gravity fell back to around 19240 yuan / ton, closing up to 19220 yuan / ton, an increase of 145 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.76% over the previous transaction, and the trading volume increased by 74680 hands to 404000 hands. Position increased by 1056 to 264000. During the day, Shanghai zinc stopped falling and turned red, below the 5-day moving average, KDJ index turned upward, indicating that Shanghai zinc action can be more sufficient, macro mood dissipated under Shanghai zinc return to its own basic logic operation, Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin social inventory recorded a small decline in the day, giving Shanghai zinc a certain amount of action energy, night Shanghai zinc or still running near the 10-day moving average.

Today, Shanghai zinc 1907 contract delivery, intraday around the daily average around 19200 yuan / ton, followed by short positions down 18220 yuan / ton. The final closing fell by 19000 yuan per ton, or 95 yuan per ton, or 0.5 per cent. Today's settlement price is 19180 yuan / ton, and the delivery volume is 28375 tons.

Tin: Shanghai tin main 1909 contract Friday night trading 134170 yuan / ton, the beginning of the market fell to Friday night low 133480 yuan / ton, and then until the close, Shanghai tin overall maintained at the daily average of 133800 yuan / ton shock finishing. After opening 133970 yuan / ton in early trading this morning, it rose slightly to an intraday high of 134500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, until the close of Shanghai tin showed a downward trend of concussion as a whole, and finally closed at 133220 yuan / ton, down 1440 yuan / ton, down 1.07 per cent. The trading volume was 20680, a decrease of 6086. The number of positions was 32760, an increase of 462. Today, due to a small increase in short positions, the center of gravity of tin in Shanghai has moved down to the negative line, with the upper shadow line bearing pressure on the 5-10 day moving average. The resistance above Shanghai tin is expected to be 135000 yuan / ton above the 5-10 day moving average, and the lower support is located near 132500 yuan / ton.

In the process of updating.

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