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SMM Evening Comments (Jul 12)
Jul 12,2019 18:32CST
price review forecast
SHFE nonferrous metals closed mixed

SHANGHAI, Jul 12 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals closed mixed on Friday. Nickel saw the biggest gain of 1.1%, copper advanced 0.3%, lead rose 0.2% and tin inched up 0.05%, while zinc fell 0.4% and aluminium shed close to 0.7%.

The ferrous complex also saw mixed performance. Coke gained 1.2% and coking coal climbed 0.6% while hot-rolled coil slipped 0.8% and rebar declined 1%. Iron ore closed flat.

Copper: As longs added their positions, the most active SHFE September contract strengthened to a more than a week-high of 46,790 yuan/mt before it pared some gains to close 0.28% higher at 46,670 yuan/mt. A total of 162 million yuan flowed out of the SHFE copper complex on the day, as shorts exited from the July and August contracts. A soft US dollar amid firm expectations of Fed rate cuts and stronger oil prices on Gulf of Mexico storm and Middle East tensions buoyed copper prices. Positive technical indicators will also support copper prices. Tonight, the market will docus on whether the contract climbs above 46,800 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: The most liquid SHFE August contract continued its overnight rangebound pattern during the day, and ended 0.65% lower at 13,770 yuan/mt. It is expected to remain weak and rangebound next week.

Zinc: The most active SHFE September contract slipped to an intraday low of 18,960 yuan/mt before it recovered some ground to finish the trading day 0.39% lower at 19,045 yuan/mt. Support is expected to sustain at the 19,000 yuan/mt level as SMM data showed that social inventories of refined zinc across Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong continued to fall this week. Resistance from the five-day moving average is key to watch tonight.

Nickel: As longs added their positions, the SHFE August contract climbed above the daily moving average in afternoon trade, extending overnight gains to close 1.13% higher at 103,840 yuan/mt. It is expected to trade above 103,400 yuan/mt tonight.

Lead: As LME lead rose, the most active SHFE August contract recovered from earlier losses in afternoon trade, to end the trading day 0.19% higher at 16,105 yuan/mt. With strong resistance from the 60-day moving average, the contract is expected to continue to hover in the range between the five- and 60-day moving averages tonight.

Tin: The most traded SHFE September contract recovered from earlier losses to close higher at 134,660 yuan/mt. Support is seen from the five- and 10-day moving averages as high as 135,500 yuan/mt, while support is at 132,000 yuan/mt.

Evening comments

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