SMM News: in June, the decline in sales in China's car market narrowed again to less than 10 per cent!
In June 2019, China sold 2.056 million vehicles, down 9.6 per cent from a year earlier, according to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Of these, passenger car sales in June were 1.728 million, down 7.8 per cent from a year earlier and up 10.7 per cent from a month earlier.
In the first half of this year, China's car sales totaled 12.323 million units, down 12.4 per cent from the same period last year. Of these, passenger cars sold a total of 10.127 million vehicles in the first half of the year, down 14.0 per cent from a year earlier.
In June, China's three major categories of passenger cars in the car, MPV sales continued to decline, SUV sales increased slightly. Of these, car sales were 863000, down 10.5 percent from a year earlier to 98000 vehicles, down 24.4 percent from a year earlier to 739000 SUVs, up 0.3 percent from a year earlier.
It is worth mentioning that China's new energy passenger car market still maintains a strong growth. In June 2019, a total of 137000 new energy passenger vehicles were sold in China, up 87.6 per cent from a year earlier, according to data released by the China Automobile Association. Of these, sales of pure electric vehicles were 115000, an increase of 123.6 percent over the same period last year, and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 22000, an increase of 1.5 percent over the same period last year.
The decline in sales in the Chinese car market narrowed sharply in June, particularly in the passenger car market, which narrowed to 7.8 per cent (sales fell less than 10 per cent in March in the first five months of 2019). This is mainly due to car companies, dealers Guofu switching inventory, however, such a decline in sales will not be long, the domestic car market is still not optimistic.
The sixth switch helped to narrow the decline in sales
From July 1, many places such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin began to implement Guozhou six emission standards, some areas implemented Guozhou six emission standards ahead of schedule, and Guozhou six regions reduced prices in June to speed up the clean-up of Guowu models; and in non-national and sixth regions, dealers are also impulse promotions to complete the half-year assessment.
Due to the intensity of price reduction and promotion, consumers bought cars in June with the mentality of copying the bottom, which narrowed the decline in sales volume in the domestic car market, but at the same time, dealers lost large profits and were under tremendous operating pressure. We can only look forward to making up for the loss caused by the inverted price through horizontal services such as finance, boutique, insurance, etc., or striving for fuzzy rewards for the mainframe factory.
"most of the Guowu models have stimulated consumer demand through price promotion, and the inventory of their own brands is more difficult than that of the joint venture brands. Even the inventory that has not been digested has been switched over through measures such as early listing. Nationwide, the inventory digestion of Guowu models is relatively smooth, but the losses caused by the inventory clearance process should not be small." So said Cui Dongshu, an information analyst for the national passenger car market.
It should be pointed out that due to the large-scale promotion, the price at the end of the channel fell greatly in June, which has a greater negative impact on the healthy development of car companies and dealers. Fortunately, after the completion of the inventory clearance of the five models, the car enterprises and dealers recover the price in time, implement the price rational protection to the sixth model of the country, and reduce the impact of price reduction and promotion on the brand image.
Inventory early warning index fever reduction
According to data released by the China Automobile Circulation Association, the inventory early warning index of Chinese auto dealers in June was 50.4 percent, down 3.6 percentage points from the previous month and 8.8 percentage points from the same period last year, and the inventory early warning index was slightly above the line of prosperity and decline.
Specific to the implementation of the sixth national standard in advance of the region, car sales accounted for 66% of the total sales, inventory early warning index of 45.7%, located below the warning line, but not ahead of the implementation of the sixth standard of the area, sales accounted for about 1/3 of the total sales, inventory early warning index of 59.5%, located above the warning line, which is the most direct embodiment of the impact of the six switching on the car market.
Despite the increase in market demand and average daily sales in June, the dealer workforce and operating condition index continued to decline, as the industry was depressed and dealers paid the price for volume at the cost of a sharp decline in profits. as a result, the business situation continues to deteriorate.
"most dealers basically cleared the national five inventory by the end of June, and the overall inventory level of dealers at the end of June also dropped sharply to an all-time low. With the stereotyping of Guofu models and the gradual promotion of production and sales, the inventory of Guofu models, which began in July, will form a replenishment cycle in which the wholesale sales volume of manufacturers to dealers is much higher than that of retail dealers. " Cui Dongshu said so.
The car market is still not optimistic in the second half of the year
The China Automobile Circulation Association released a "car consumption index" of 41.2 in June, indicating a decline in consumer demand, with sales expected to fall in July from June, and the market showing a lacklustre performance. And the number of dealers in June fell, the general collection of customers after a month or so can be converted into sales, which will be directly reflected in the July sales, coupled with May, June overdraft demand, so that the July car market even worse.
In addition, as of June 20, 2019, there were only 99 enterprises on the market, a total of 2144 Guofu models, accounting for about half of the models sold on the market. The supply of Guofu models requires a process, which also has a negative impact on the car market for the next period of time.
However, the domestic car market is not only facing great challenges in July, the situation throughout the second half of the year is not optimistic. In the view of Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Circulation Association, the third quarter of this year will be very difficult for dealers and even the domestic auto industry as a whole, but even if they survive, the 'gold, nine and silver ten' that 'stood up' last year may not necessarily appear this year. If consumer support does not recover significantly after August, it will be difficult for the car market to reverse in the fourth quarter of this year. The China Automobile Circulation Association is still cautious about market expectations for the second half of the year, and negative growth for the whole year is a foregone conclusion.
In the view of Su Hui, executive vice chairman of the visible Market Chamber of Commerce of the China Automobile Circulation Association, it is still very difficult to restore the automobile market in the second half of the year, first of all, the general environment is not good, and then the policy has not landed for a long time. These policies are closely related to stimulating domestic demand, and they are very strong. If they can really fall to the ground in the second half of the year and promote implementation, then the automobile market will certainly rebound in the second half of the year.
Overall, in the case of sharp price reduction and promotion of the national fifth model, China's car market sales in June is still negative growth, it can be seen in the traditional off-season July, car market sales will not have a miracle, and the car market throughout the second half of the year will be extremely difficult.
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