SMM forecast: it is estimated that the ex-factory price of the rebar in Shagang is flat in mid-July, that is, the adjustment of the third-grade big screw (ex-factory price 4170 yuan / ton), the Kuti cost in East China is 4120 yuan / ton, and the plant cost is 4070 yuan / ton. Basic analysis: first of all, from the steel plant point of view, according to research, the current Shagang thread plant warehouse in 250000 tons, at the normal level, there is no shipping pressure, but in July Shagang thread production increased by 16000 tons to the highest point of the year, but also higher than the same period last year, so there may be a strong willingness to ship. Secondly, traders, in the early steel mills let profit later steel prices rise, the profit situation of traders improved compared with the early June, their mentality has also been relatively improved. Although the fundamentals of the market may have improved, supply and demand have increased (on the supply side, according to SMM, 31 steel mills that mainly produce building materials in July scheduled production by-0.38% compared with June, while the opening rates of arc furnace steel mills and billet rolling mills also fell by 7% and 2%, respectively. On the demand side, with the continuous emergence of plum in the southern regions in late July, the demand has been gradually weakened by seasonal interference, and its improvement is already on the way), so the probability of steel price volatility rising is great, but according to the East China region, according to the SMM survey, the production scheduling of mainstream steel mills in East China increased in July, and the impact of production restrictions on the East China region is relatively limited. In addition, the improvement in demand in East China is not obvious in the short term. (as of today, Stocks in Hangzhou totaled 559000 tons, up nearly 240000 tons from the same period last year and 53000 tons from the same period last week, indicating that fundamental support has not improved significantly for the time being. Therefore, in this case, steel mills may hold steady in order to ease market sentiment and prepare for a rise in prices in the last ten days, but do not rule out the possibility of a small increase in the price of this ten-day period, with a rise of 50 yuan per ton of steel to make up for 50 to 70 yuan.
In terms of compensation: according to SMM steel data, the average selling price of Shagang resources in Hangzhou is 4084.4 yuan / ton, and the loss per ton of steel is 35.6yuan. According to investigation, as of July 9, the market price in Hangzhou was 4060.4 yuan / ton, and the actual loss was about 30 to 40 yuan / ton. However, considering that traders in the previous period generally made a certain profit, coupled with the increase in steel prices stimulated by the production restriction news at the beginning of this day, At that time the price calculation trader still has the small profit, therefore this ten days steel works big probability does not make up for the difference. Cost: according to the SMM iron and steel data model, calculated by 119.9 US gold mine, the thread cost of the long process steel plant is 3615 yuan / ton (excluding financial cost), and the thread profit is 385yuan / ton. The data show that as of today, the average thread profit of the steel plant is 336.1 yuan / ton. Order ratio: 7-2 Yonggang General Steel discount is as follows: thread 6.5 fold, wire plate fully folded. [SMM Steel]