[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]

On the 9th of SMM7,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: Deutsche Bank's massive restructuring plan was welcomed by the credit market, with risk indicators falling to new lows. Iran has threatened to increase its enrichment to 20%. South Korea's president has urged Japan to lift export restrictions or face countermeasures. The people's Bank of China released credit data for June as soon as possible today, with growth in social finance and new renminbi loans expected to be higher than in May.

Fundamentals: yesterday's zinc spot review:

Shanghai: zinc low consolidation, the monthly difference shows a narrowing trend, the market circulation is relatively loose, the quotation slightly moved up to 30 to 40 yuan / ton, the low price is more active, the high price shipment is more persistent, the handover two sides have the difference, take the net average price as the benchmark also has the average price discount / flat water difference, the market with the net average price transaction is relatively concentrated, the rise discount transaction is slightly insipid. Entering the second trading period, the trading between traders is still dominant, the market is more and less driven by the demand for long orders, coupled with the lower downstream of zinc futures, there are also purchases on demand, the overall market transaction has warmed up, and the quotation has been raised to about 50 yuan / ton of rising water. The overall transaction gap is not large compared with last Friday, but the trading of traders still occupies a dominant position.

Guangdong: normal shipment of refineries, abundant circulation of goods in the market. In the morning, the quotation of the holder concentrated on the average price of-10 yuan / ton, and the quotation of the holder of the contract was concentrated around 180 yuan / ton of rising water for the 08 contract, followed by the continuous narrowing of the monthly difference from that month to the following month. The holder lowered the rising water to about 120 to 160 yuan / ton of rising water for the 08 contract. After the price reduction, the market transaction was not significantly boosted. The main reason is that there are more purchasing and replenishment warehouses downstream on Friday, and part of the follow-up consumption is overdrawn. Downstream today is mainly wait-and-see, today's transaction situation is weaker than last Friday.

Tianjin: the refinery shipment is normal, the market supply circulation is relatively abundant, in the morning period the shipowner quotation concentrated in the 07 contract water 100 to 120 yuan / ton, but the downstream receiving intention has not appeared for the time being. In the follow-up period, some holders lowered the water supply of ordinary brands to around 60 to 70 yuan per ton, and the market turnover improved slightly. Today, Tianjin transactions are mainly low-priced brand goods, the market trading atmosphere continues light, mainly because the lower reaches of Friday to buy a strong willingness to replenish the warehouse, or overdrawn part of the follow-up consumption, the transaction volume is slightly weaker than last Friday.

Zinc prices: overnight Shanghai zinc closed up, the overall operation near the lower track of Brin Road, overnight domestic Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin social inventory again recorded a small decline, but also strengthened the market for the subsequent accumulation of the degree of expectation, the current basic support is weak, Shanghai zinc may still be weak operation.

Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2360-2410 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1909 contract or run around 18900-19400 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic fall 150