SMM7: early this morning, the non-ferrous metals market rose and fell, as of 09:30 in the morning, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 1.4%, Shanghai tin rose nearly 0.3%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.3%, Shanghai copper fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.6%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.7%; among them, nickel, from the latest stainless steel plant production plan, July 300 series stainless steel production will pick up slightly. 300 series stainless steel inventory gradually fell back, coupled with the recovery of macro sentiment to bring a certain boost, the recent price performance of 304 stainless steel is strong, 300 series stainless steel profits have rebounded. Spurred by a rebound in profits and a fall in inventories, expectations of production cuts are likely to fail again. However, because the 300 series stainless steel inventory is at an all-time high, demand may not have enough stamina in the off-season consumption, if there is no macro positive to improve demand, high inventory pressure or difficult to easily digest, production reduction will be delayed rather than disappeared.
In the black system, iron ore rose by nearly 5.5%, coking coal by nearly 1.2%, hot coil by nearly 2.3%, screw thread by nearly 1.8%, coke by nearly 0.8%. In iron ore, port inventory continues to decline, at a low level, high-grade ore and pellets go to the warehouse obviously. The implementation of the production restrictions has not been expected, and the policy and market rumors have been digested.
Last period of crude oil rose nearly 0.7%, news, according to Huitong, BP changed the Persian Gulf tanker route, because of fears that Iran will retaliate against its seizure of tankers, the geo-risk continues to heat up. Increased flow from the North Sea field and the Druzhba pipeline will curb U. S. crude exports and narrow the Brent-WTI spread. Us Oil and cloth Oil are similar in trend, falling slightly for two consecutive trading days this week. At a time when demand for crude oil in Asia and Europe is becoming saturated, a price war for global crude oil exporters seems inevitable.
Technical analysis:
Copper: at present, the market is still affected by the global macroeconomic slowdown, copper prices lack of impulse power, Lun Copper has been four consecutive Yin, the loss of all recent EMA support, the upper pressure Brin middle rail, MACD indicators green column first appeared, the performance of negative signals. The copper market is expected to remain volatile and weak today. Spot today as a result of the disk price continues to decline, is expected to attract downstream buying, from yesterday, the market has been pressure space, today's market price sentiment is even more. It is estimated that today's London copper 5850 $5900 / ton, Shanghai copper 46000 $46500 / ton, spot water 40-liter 100 yuan / ton
Aluminum: it is estimated that today's aluminum price is 13700 to 13850 yuan / ton, and the discount is between 20 yuan / ton and 20 yuan / ton. It is suggested that the downstream should be purchased normally, and the low price can be replenished properly. Overnight Shanghai aluminum trend is more stable, the overall fluctuation is not large, the operating range is expected to be 13700 to 13850 yuan / ton, yesterday the United States index recorded two Lianyang, Lun aluminum intra-day trend entangled, continued upward power is insufficient, is expected to run between 1780 and 1850 US dollars / ton today.
Lead: after weakening for many days in a row, Lun lead finally stopped falling and stabilized, and during the period tried to break back to the $1900 mark, but in the end it was ineffective. Shanghai lead is more short for a short period of time, but the short momentum is strong in the past two days, but due to the attack of environmental protection, some renewable enterprises in Guizhou have reduced production to deal with it. If the lead price continues to weaken, the primary price gap may be further narrowed. In addition, the consumption of the traditional peak season in August is coming, so if the lead price does not break down, it is still recommended to buy in the low position of the box.
Zinc: overnight zinc recorded four negative, LME zinc 0-3 liter discount from the last trading day $9.50 / ton fell to-$3 / ton, the market supply contradiction again repaired and eased, Lun zinc fundamental support is weak, within a day or run in the range of $2360 to $2410 / ton. Overnight Shanghai zinc closed up slightly, the overall operation near the lower track of Brin Road, overnight social inventory again recorded a small decline, but also strengthen the market for the subsequent accumulation of inventory expectations, the current basic support is weak, the day Shanghai zinc or run in 18900 to 19400 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic and double swallow zinc pair 7 liters 30 to 80
Nickel: today, we are concerned about the pressure situation of the former high US $12800 / ton line of the Lennie platform, which is expected to fluctuate in the range of US $12600 to US $12800 / ton today. Shanghai nickel is close to the Boll line and is concerned about its resistance to Shanghai nickel today. Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1000000 to 120000 yuan / ton, and 99500 to 102500 yuan / ton in stock.
Tin: the upper resistance is expected to be near the 10-day moving average of $18500 / ton, and the lower support is expected to be around $18200 / ton. It is estimated that the resistance above tin in Shanghai is near the 10-day moving average of 137500 yuan / ton. Spot market, Shanghai tin main 1909 contract last night after the first suppression and then raise the center of gravity moved slightly, today's mainstream trading price is expected to 136500 139500 yuan / ton.
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